1. The Performance Framework Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event Laurent Tabernier EUROCONTROL Project Episode 3 Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

2. Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 2 Scope of the presentation Objectives of Performance Framework Influence Diagrams and Influence Models, what is the difference Where the work started (link to SESAR Definition Phase) What results have been obtained Recommendation for SESAR

3. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 3 Objectives of Performance Framework Design of a methodology to build an ECAC-wide picture of the potential benefits across 41 countries, 2000 airports, 16 million flights/year with 180 proposed improvements is a BIG challenge. What were the existing models? We have developed a Performance Framework that establishes a methodology to build a model for future ECAC-wide assessment. This methodology is based on …

4. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 4 This methodology is based on: A catalogue of KPIs for consistency and to capture data about the influencing factors. influence A better understanding of the elements that influence the performances (Influence diagrams) for Capacity, Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability, Safety, Environment Key Performance Areas (SESAR KPA). Modelling activities (mechanism and mathematical formulae). The PF provides a methodology and a starting point for a common set of Key Performances Indicators - this will determine WHAT should be measured. Objectives of Performance Framework

5. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 5 Influence Diagrams and Influence Models What is the difference ? An Influence Diagram(ID) is essentially a graphical representation of the probabilistic interdependance between influencing factors. The approach originates from the field of decision analysis and uses expert judgement in its formulations. An Influence Model represents the elements that are linked and the mechanism and mathematical formulae to combine their influences. The addition of quantification data to the identified mechanisms will create an Influence Model that can be used to assess the potential impact of various operational improvements (OI-steps) on the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) for each Key Performance Area (KPA) considered.

6. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 6 Influence Diagrams and Influence Models

7. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 7 Where the work started

8. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 8 What results have been obtained TMA Arrival repository Example of input data from WP5 exercises CDA at Schiphol airport Example of input data from WP5 exercises CDA at Koln airport Example of input data from WP5 exercises CDA at Dusseldorf airport

9. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 9 To Environment Show result What results have been obtained

10. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 10 From Efficiency What results have been obtained

11. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 11 Recommendation for SESAR IM and PF should be started at the beginning of the validation process (to create a baseline) and should be executed and refined along the project. Validation exercises results and experts are necessary to populate those IM with quantification data. Influence diagrams and model must be consistent and further detailed where needed (D3 and D4 lesson learnt). Influence model should be used to prioritise validation exercises, using the sensitivity and importance analysis features of the tool. Influence model can be a tool to understand and explain performance behaviour and possible performance improvements. Extrapolation from Local to ECAC-wide is difficult but needed.

12. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 12 "All models are wrong but some are useful" G. Box Better to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong JM Keyne's, Daniel Pauly, Humour

13. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009 Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event 13 28th DASC Conference Best of Session award