1. The next generation in carbon modeling
Forestry and Land use Change: National Economic
Models Reporting Emission Mitigation Results
Discussion Topics: Steve McNulty
The next generation in carbon modeling
Sector Linkages
Spatial Linkages
Temporal Linkages

2. Sector Linkages Simple Linkages one directional (i.e. no feedback)
few sectors
Example: Forest Productivity run for 100 years and used as input
to forest value projections
Complex Linkages
Multi-directional (i.e., with feedback)
several sectors interacting
Example: next slide

4. The next generation in carbon modeling
Sector Linkages
Temporal Linkages

5. Temporal Linkages Fine scale (< monthly) Detailed process level
Short time frame and/or small spatial area
Increased aggregation sensitivity
Coarse scale (> monthly)
Empirical or lumped parameter modeling
Long time frame and/or large spatial area
Reduced aggregation sensitivity

6. The next generation in carbon modeling
Sector Linkages
Temporal Linkages
- Spatial Linkages

7. Spatial Linkages with a biophysical
Modeling example
Watershed scale
Leaf x tree x stand density x area
Leaf variables
Chloroplast amino acid conc
Vapor pressure deficit
Photo active radiation
Stomatal conductance
Etc…
Tree variables
Light extinction coefficient
Leaf area index
Root mass
Carbon allocation
Etc…
Regional Scale
Ecosystem x area
Ecosystem
Average Foliar %N
Air temperature
Precipitation

8. Group Discussion Topics
Question: To better understand and forecast alternative carbon
Sequestration and mitigation strategies
What are the key research gaps in temporal and spatial scaling within a sector?
2) What key inputs and outputs need to be transferred between
sector models to allow model linkages?
How should multi-sector sensitivity be measured?
4) What is the appropriate temporal and spatial scale for linked model outputs?