1. Studying social policy in time
23/05/2019
Studying social policy in time
Giuliano Bonoli

2. Social policy in time At the micro-level: longitudinal analysis
Social processes
Transitions between employment and non employment
Social exclusion
Event history analysis
Child birth
Disability recipiency
But at the macro-level?

3. Three time-related processes
Path dependency
Example: labour market policies
Sequencing
Example: pension reform
Relative timing
Example: Adaptation to new social risks

4. 1. Path dependency
In the early days of a policy, the room for manoeuvre is relatively large. Early decisions are relatively unconstrained
Early decisions, however, put policies on course from which it is difficult to exit
Illustration through “Polya Urn” processes in mathematics
Illustration through the QWERTY keyboard layout in economic history

5. Why path dependency ? Increasing returns (P. Pierson)
Policy change requires collective action.
Institutional density or stickiness
Increasing returns in political authority
Complexity of politics and policies

6. Example: Labour market /industrial relations policy in Britain and in Germany in the 1980s (Steward Wood)
PUZZLE:
UK: Liberalisation, deregulation
Germany: status quo prevails in spite of attempts by the Kohl government in the same direction
HYPOTHESES:
Employers preferences are different

7. Employer preferences in the UK and in Germany – shaped by EPL
low employment protection allows employers to adjust quickly to demand fluctuations, and keep short term profits high
Provides an incentive for workers to acquire transferable skills.
Rigidities are detrimental to profitability
Germany
high employment protection generates a stable labour market which discourages free riding
provides incentives for workers to invest in their own skills
Collaboration with the unions is important for providing training

8. UK: The Thatcher governments reduced the power of the trade unions dramatically

9. Germany: failed attempts to undermine union power because of employers
attempt to restrict access to unemployment benefits for workers indirectly affected by a strike.
Attempt to undermine DGB monopoly in works councils

10. Conclusion:
Decisions taken decades earlier (interwar period for Germany) have shaped current employer preferences

11. 2. Sequencing. Why do policy processes go through sequences?
Social learning (problem solving)
Strategic learning by political actors
Spill over effects (adjustment in the Netherlands).
Staged processes with extension of the range of available options

12. 3. Relative timing of key developments
Key socio-economic developments are not synchronised across countries
Their relative timing may produce interactions that can affect the patterns of opportunity/constraints for policy change

13. Old welfare states and new social risks
23/05/2019
Old welfare states and new social risks
Western welfare states were concieved and developed during the postwar years
Socio-economic changes have resulted in the emergence of new social risks
How are welfare states adapting to this?

14. … it depends
Nordic welfare states have been considerably more successful in adapting
Continental European welfare states are lagging behind
Timing of different developments explains divergence

15. Social change and new social risks
23/05/2019
Social change and new social risks
Deindustrialsiation and the tertiarisation of employment
Women’s entry into labour markets
Increased instability of family structures
Destandardisation of employment

16. Old and new social risk policies
Pensions
Survivors ben.
Short term unemployment ben.
Sickness benefit
Invalidity ben. and serv.
New
Long term unempl. ben./ALMP
In work benefits
Child care serv.
Family ben.
Parental leave
Services for older people

17. It is justified to distinguish between two sorts of social policies, because:
They constitute responses to different social transformations, and have different objectives
The target groups of the two sets of policies are different
Why not?

18. Spending on old and new social risk polices as a % of GDP, averages 1997-2001
Source: OECD SOCX 2004

19. How do we explain divergence?
Politics
Institutional predisposition
The relative timing of postindustrialisation, ageing and welfare state maturation

20. The timing of key postindustrial developments in 18 OECD countries
Source: Based on OECD Statistical compendium

21. Relationship between the average benchmark year and spending on new social risk polices, 1997-2001
Source: Based on OECD Statistical compendium

22. Alternative explanations 1: the strength of the left
Source: OECD SOCX and Armingeon et al. CPDS

23. Alternative explanation 2: the strength of the Christian democrats
Source: OECD SOCX and Armingeon et al. CPDS

24. Alternative explanation 3: Catholicism
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Alternative explanation 3: Catholicism
Source: OECD SOCX and

25. Competing explanations: correlation matrix
Source: see previous slides

26. Alternative explanation 4: catching up Increase in spending on new social risk polices in the 1990s and spending in

27. Conclusions Timing matters, but together with politics
If timing matters, we should develop new techniques to introduce time base variables in policy making models
Not good news for those who are hit by NSR in Continental European countries