1. Landscape management for resilient value chains
SAMIS – FAO / DALAM MAF

2. The SAMIS project objectives
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
The SAMIS project objectives
Enable government to make decisions based on the future of climate change in Lao PDR
Create scenarios for crop distribution in the future

3. Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Objectives
Discuss the consequences of climate change and the impacts on production?
Create a landscape thinking process around one or more potential futures

4. Value chain and climate risk4

5. Value chain and climate risk
Risks posed by climate change can affect business by
Affecting core operations,
Affecting the value chain,
Setting up broader changes in the economy and infrastructure
Source: C2ES, 2008; CC impacts in USA, 2014 5

6. Value chain and climate risk
But…
Focusing on the single value chain reduces intervention trade-off and might disregard territorial socio-economic and environmental characteristics
Source: Vermeulen, 2016 6

7. Climate smart landscapes for value chain resilience7

8. Value chain and the territory
i.e. Production of tables and chairs
Territorially embedded value
chain collaborations
Value chain
thinking
Source: Ros Tonen, 2015 8

9. …or landscape’ multiple value chains
i.e. Production of tables and chairs
Value chain are part of landscapes
Value chain
thinking
Landscape thinking
Source: van Oosten, 2015 9

10. Landscape thinking integrates the different elements of a landscape
addresses potential trade-offs between production and conservation
gives ability to upscale success
ADB, 2017
Photo: Mukesh Khugsal
Source: van Oosten, 2015 10

11. Integrated landscape management
ILM is multisectoral, multistakeholder and multi-scale;
focuses on agro-environmental and governance interactions;
applies rights-based principles and considers short and long term perspectives.
Source: Petri and Bunning, 2017, under preparation 11

12. Climate smart landscapes
Multiple
level
interventions
where consumer has a say in production systems
Source: McNally, 2016 12

13. Climate smart landscapes thinking13

14. Present and future landscape management
Through the SAMIS project
Future disrupted value chain are presented
An exercise of re-planning sustainable future landscape is attempted 14

15. Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Crop suitability
Matching the land characteristics with the crop requirements provides suitability index
It involves the evaluation and grouping of specific areas of land in terms of their suitability for defined agricultural use and technologies.

16. Present and future management - maize16

17. Present and future management - coffee17

18. One important note This map was produced in 2011
It only used global data
It uses the worst possible scenario (IPCC SRES A2)
It is being improved significantly by the SAMIS project using new cropland cover and soil map as well as land use types mapping
This means that the future of coffee distribution might not be so drastically negative
National level scenario will be ready by end of 2020 and then we will have more clear information 18

19. Discussion 19

20. Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Future impacts
What are the consequences of climate change and the impacts on production?
Source: Minang et al., 2015; Scherr, 2013

21. Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Drastic changes will require drastic interventions, so the discussion cannot focus only in the affected sector
Source: van Oosten, 2015

22. It is difficult It is not an usual way of making government decision
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
It is difficult
It is not an usual way of making government decision
It requires understanding a basic level of modelling
It entail accepting the result of a few models, while there are many more models out there
It requires thinking about “everything” all at the same time, making it challenging

23. Discussion results – imagining the future
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussion results – imagining the future
It entail thinking about examples of futures involving other sectors beyond agriculture
It include human behavior and the reaction of the population to market
It requires observing current trends in the field (data, capacity development)

24. Discussion results – imagining the future
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussion results – imagining the future
Depending on the position of the person that make the assessment, the hypothesis of future can vary infinitely
The result of this thinking might not be in line with existing policies

25. Discussion on developing resilient future landscapes25

26. Discussing alternatives for development
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussing alternatives for development
Landscape is similar to a puzzle, in which all parts are connected, so the absence of one crop modifies the entire system
Source: van Oosten, 2015

27. Alternatives for development
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Alternatives for development
What is the selected area for the crops where the situation will change drastically?
What is the potential for development in that area, considering the present scenario for 2080? Please discuss and agree
What is the length of the necessary re-planning process?
Which government entities should be involved?
What private sector entity could be involved in this re-planning process?
What enabling or policy environment should the government sustain during this re-planning?
How would the local population be involved in the planning process?

28. Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future
It is even more difficult
It requires deciding a temporal envelop that in most country is not usual (i.e. 50 years) or it is not in line with investor interest (i.e. private sector would rarely invest with a 50 year horizon)

29. Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (2)
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (2)
It is very difficult to think alternatives for the population, the private sector, the civil society
It is challenging for the government as the policies requires to be based on thrust of a modelling system

30. Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (3)
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (3)
It requires political decisions making that are challenging. Who to support, who to move in another area, who will become more or less affected?
It might entail big decisions (movement of population to other areas) or technology advances (improving the subsistence farming to a more resilient system).
For both cases, it requires to have data about cases and options

31. Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (4)
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (4)
It has been suggested to test the future development to a few areas that are more affected
It has been discussed how the government should be organized to tackle this issue, and which instrument of discussion and decision making should be put in place

32. Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (5)
Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Discussion results – the development of a climate smart future (5)
Most important…
It has been agreed that this resilient future planning requires the different sectors to work together (i.e. agriculture, forestry, water)

33. Resilient Landscapes
“Strengthening agro-climatic monitoring and information systems to improve adaptation to climate change and food security”
Conclusion
The group presented a process that the government is really starting
And that is potentially a game changer for Lao PDR
One of the most innovative processes of thinking in the context of planning future with roots in impact of climate change in the agricultural sector

34. www.fao.org/in-action/samis/ Monica.Petri@fao.org
Thank You

35. Scenario IPCC SRES A2 The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world.
The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:
A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations.
Continuously increasing population.
Regionally oriented economic development.
The worst possible case... 35

36. Climate smart landscapes
Source: LPFN, 2015
Example in forest areas 36