1. Future geo-economics and the Arctic
IAS 2018
Anzelika Krastina, Senior Lecturer
School of Business and Culture, Lapland uAS

2. Geo-economics in changing world Forces shaping the future
Arctic:
from local to global
Geo-economics in changing world
Forces shaping the future
Beyond business as usual

3. Arctic

4. Geo-economics in changing world
65% of children in primary school today will have jobs that don’t exist (WEF)
Geo-economics in changing world
Changing landscape of economic and political discourse
Fourth Industrial Revolution
Geo-economics - interplay of international economics, geopolitics and strategy
 Geo-questions: regionalization and localization

5. Forces shaping the future
The four forces shaping civilization´s northern future (Laurence C. Smith)
Demography
Raw materials
Globalisation
Climate change
Technological revolution
New Era for Energy Politics
New Growth Paradigm for Emerging Economies
Powering the Digital Economy
How Do We Stop at Two Degrees?
SDGs and Sprint to 2020
Global Economic Outlook
Forces shaping the future

6. ARCTIC from local to global Geography Politics Economics

7. Arctic cooperation and governance
The Rovaniemi Declaration of Protection of the Arctic environment
Barents Euro-Arctic Council 1993
Arctic Council 1996
Arctic Economic Council 2014
Arctic cooperation and governance

8. Arctic economy and industry

9. The Four Arctics Traditional Arctic Russian Arctic
Distant, Icebergs, Polar bears, Indigenous people, very sparse population, no roads, etc…
No business, Investors, Big Companies, Raw materials
Russian Arctic
Remote, cold, environmental problems, sparse population, no transport infrastructure, old technologies
North-South Business, Raw materials only
North Calotte Arctic
Population is sparse, but also big centers, cities, good transport connections, good telecommunication
High technology industries, SME´s, entrepreneurs, Cross border business
Runner Ups Arctic
Outside the real Arctic, strong national business interest
The Arctic is a new market area

10. Future geo-economics of Arctic
Energy developments : global energy demand will increase – but will Arctic petroleum be able to compete with other sources of supply?
Climate Change – melting sea ice and warming of the sea are creating new operating conditions ( Northern Sea route)
Environmental regulations ( Paris agreement) - towards green energy
China growth – resource and transport needs
Russian domestic policies
Technology – new opportunities, data centers, cold climate testing facilities
Tourism – tourists rush to see polar ice before it melts
Future geo-economics of Arctic

11. Beyond business as usual
Changing the paradigm
New type of business leadership
Innovation and entrepreneurship mindset
Future oriented
Arctic not just a laboratory of environmental and climate change – need new, more comprehensive multidisciplinary approach
Polarnomics - Geo-economic framework for systemic analysis of polar ( Arctic) affairs ( by ILERI professor Mikå Mered)
Beyond business as usual

12. Change comes faster than you imagine – be ready!

13. Thank you!