1. Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead
interim ^
Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead
Jeff Hard and Jim Myers (for the PSSTRT)
Conservation Biology Division
NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Seattle, WA 98112
West Coast Steelhead Management Meeting
Redmond, OR
9-11 March 2010

2. Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes
Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives
The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria
Identifying DIPs & MPGs
Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS
Run type diversity; residency and anadromy
Outlook

3. Puget Sound steelhead status reviews
Originally reviewed in 1996; ESA listing not warranted
2nd status review in response to September 2004 petition completed June 2007
DPS listed as threatened under ESA
Several populations continue steep declines despite harvest restrictions
Low productivity; poor FW/marine habitat conditions; use of non-local/ derived hatchery stocks; depressed LH diversity

4. Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes
Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives
The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria
Identifying DIPs & MPGs
Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS
Run type diversity; residency and anadromy
Outlook

5. East Puget Sound steelhead
Tolt SSH
Green WSH
Abundance
QET = 50
QET = 50
P(extinction)
Years

6. General RoE patterns for Puget Sound steelhead
Some but not all northern PS populations are at relatively low risk of extinction
Populations in central and southern PS (except Green WSH) are generally smaller and most are declining
Hood Canal and SJF populations are small and at high risk, although some have been relatively stable
Status of many South Sound/Kitsap Peninsula independents and most SSH populations unclear
Of concern: Most central and SPS populations, many Hood Canal, all SJF populations

7. Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes
Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives
The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria
Identifying DIPs & MPGs
Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS
Run type diversity; residency and anadromy
Outlook

8. Technical Recovery Team (TRT)
When a population(s) under NOAA/USFWS jurisdiction is petitioned for listing under ESA, a Biological Review Team (BRT) of federal scientists determines its risk of extinction—the basis for a listing decision
Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP; McElhany et al. 2000) criteria:
- Abundance, productivity, spatial structure, diversity
A TRT develops biological recovery (“viability”) criteria to guide recovery planning for listed unit
A TRT has two primary charges:
- Identify demographically independent populations (DIPs) and major population groups (MPGs) within the ESU/DPS
- Develop viability criteria for these units and the ESU/DPS

9. Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes
Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives
The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria
Identifying DIPs & MPGs
Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS
Run type diversity; residency and anadromy
Outlook

10. Demographically Independent Populations & Major Population Groups
DIPs < MPGs < DPS
Data are usually limiting, and TRTs have had to rely on indirect measures to identify DIPs and MPGs
TRTs have typically used simple decision rules to evaluate these factors
e.g., spawning populations separated by some amount
e.g., elevation/gradient/hydrograph differs substantially between areas
Assessment of historical populations a key element of identifying DIPs and MPGs

11. DIP checklist Tier 1 Historical presence Historical abundance
Demographic independence
Tier 2 (proxies)
Recent abundance
Intrinsic potential or other habitat based estimate of potential productivity
Basin size/drainage area
Geographic isolation
Genetic distance
Barriers
physical
seasonal
Ecological separation
Temporal isolation
Tier 3 (species surrogates)

12. Neighbor-joining tree
C-S-E distances
13 μsat loci
Includes 2008 and 2009 collections
Strait of Juan de Fuca
West Hood Canal
South/Central Sound
North Sound
East Hood Canal

13. Historical WDF steelhead catch data

14. Dendrogram of Gower SI of habitat characteristics
High precip, snow pack
(and SSH)
Wider, more spawn-able area
Rain dominated, generally smaller
SJF

16. How can we combine these data in a way that helps to identify DIPs?
Recent demographic independence
(PD)
Ecophenotypic differences
(EP)
Ecological distinctiveness
(ED)
Biological distinctiveness (BD)
Population independence
(IP)
Population dynamics
(PD.1) W
Migration rates
(PD.2)
Habitat characteristics
(EP.2)
Life history traits
(EP.1)
Genetic distinctiveness (GD)
Geographic isolation
(GI)
Stream gradient, etc. (EP.2.A...)
Run timing, etc. (EP.1.A...)
Tag recoveries, etc. (PD.2.A...)
Adult number, etc. (PD.1.A...)
Geographic distance, etc. (GI.1.A...)
Genetic distance, etc. (GD.1.A...)
(from a concept by K. Currens, NWIFC)

17. Why a Decision Support System (DSS) framework?
“Fuzzy logic” system systematically incorporates degree of uncertainty into decision making
Almost any relevant criterion can be considered
Employs truth membership functions to evaluate the degree to which propositions are true
Uses logical operators (e.g., “AND”, “UNION”, “MEDIAN”, “AVERAGE”) and weighting factors to combine criteria
Provides a transparent, systematic, and repeatable framework to reach decisions supported by the available data

18. A truth membership function
“Population will persist
= TRUE”
“I am completely uncertain whether the population will persist”
False Uncertain True
Truth value for proposition
1-P(extinction)
“Population will persist
= FALSE”

19. Some DSS DIP model inputs
Historic populations identified from WDF steelhead catch statistics ( ) and habitat-based intrinsic potential estimates
Minimum historic size (e.g., > 500 natural spawners/gen)
Minimum suitable habitat (e.g., > 20K m2 IP habitat)
Recent demographic data estimated from spawner escapements and selected age structure data (1970s-present)
Geographic distances, hydrographic data, and habitat features estimated from GIS data layers
Genetic distances based on pairwise FST values from 13 microsatellite loci

20. Matrix of potential PS steelhead DIPs (Central/South Puget Sound WSH)
Lk Washington WSH
Green WSH
MS Puyallup WSH
Nisqually WSH
East Kitsap WSH
0.1435
DRAFT

21. Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes
Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives
The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria
Identifying DIPs & MPGs
Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS
Run type diversity; residency and anadromy
Outlook

22. Puget Sound Chinook salmon
ESU viability:
All MPGs must be viable
MPG viability
2-4 viable
populations
1 viable population from each major genetic and life-history group.
Suggested population size range
Distribution of spawning aggregations
Phenotypic and genotypic variation at population level
Catastrophe
ESU: Overall risk with distribution of pops and life histories in each MPG
Pop: % of affected by given catastrophe
Historical Abundance
SimSam
Habitat-based PVA (EDT)

23. DSS viability criteria:
population
stratum/MPG
entire ESU/DPS PS PF
Abundance
Hatchery influence PD PP
Adult dist’n
Juvenile dist’n

24. Some DSS viability model inputs
Abundance and productivity estimated from spawner escapements and available age structure data (1940s-present)
Risk of reaching QET estimated with simple PVA models
Analysis limited to winter-run fish (WSH)
So far, analysis limited to anadromous fish
For future: incorporate iteroparity and relative abundance of resident fish as VSP factors

25. DSS applied to PS steelhead viability: MPG and DPS levels
Persistence
Functionality
Sustainability
Sustainability
Persistence
Diversity
MPG MP MD MF MS DS DP
Strait of Georgia
-0.268 1
-0.036
Whidbey Basin
0.93
-0.029
0.221
Central/South Puget Sound
-0.302
0.689
-0.075
-0.805
0.093
Hood Canal
-0.340
-0.173
-0.312
Strait of Juan de Fuca
-0.316
-0.876
-0.861
DRAFT
…………..MPG level…………..
…..DPS level…..

26. Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes
Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives
The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria
Identifying DIPs & MPGs
Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS
Run type diversity; residency and anadromy
Outlook

27. VSP: Diversity Summer-run life history
Historically at least 12 wild SSH populations existed in DPS
In 2002 SaSI, 16 SSH populations were identified as extant
Most of “unknown” status; only 2 considered “healthy” (Tolt, SF Skykomish [non-native])
7 are monitored: Canyon Cr., Skagit, Snohomish, Tolt, Stillaguamish, Green, Elwha
Estimates of escapement available for only Tolt River SSH in northern Puget Sound

28. VSP: Diversity residency & anadromy
Proportion smolts from resident spawners
Marine survival
Smolts produced by resident spawners may be critical in supporting steelhead productivity during periods of low marine survival

29. Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes
Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives
The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria
Identifying DIPs & MPGs
Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS
Run type diversity; residency and anadromy
Outlook

30. Outlook
TRT to identify draft viability criteria for Puget Sound steelhead in 2010
NOAA status review update due in 2010
Recovery planning is underway
Additional analyses planned:
Genetic samples
Finer-scale intrinsic potential estimates
Archived abundance and life history data
Puget Sound Chinook salmon gap analysis

31. Extra slides after this point
FIN
Extra slides after this point

32. Steelhead IP habitat rating metrics
Stream Habitat Rating Matrix (below natural barriers)
Stream width (bankfull)
0 - 3 m m
> 50 m
Stream gradient %
low
high
moderate
>4.0%
Puget Sound
Intrinsic Potential (Interior Columbia River parameters)
Unconfined Stream Habitat Rating (valley width > 4x bank full width)
Stream width m m
> 50 m
Stream gradient
0.0% - 0.5%
moderate
low
0.5% - 1.5%
high
1.5% - 4.0%
4.0% - 7.0%
very low / none
7.0% %
> 15.0%
Confined Stream Habitat Rating (valley width < 4x bank full width)
Weighted Habitat Area
high = 1.0 x Bank full area
moderate = 0.5 x Bank full area
low = 0.25 x Bank full area
very low / none = 0.0 x Bank full area
Interior Columbia
(for comparison)

33. Est. mean ‘historic’ wild run size vs unblocked stream length

34. Spawner capacity estimates
Assuming:
7.17 parr/100 m2
spnrs/parr
(Gibbons et al. 1985)