1. An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region
CIWARA – Climate change Impacts on West African agriculture – a Regional Assessment
An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region

2. CIWARA = ?
In the Bambara mythology, the ciwara is a laboring wild animal representing the creation of farming. Throughout the Manding area of West Africa, it symbolizes courage, selflessness and wisdom, and is awarded to meritorious workers

3. CIWARA: Goals
G1. Substantially improve the characterization of food security risks due to climate variability and change in semi-arid and sub-humid West Africa.
G2. Enhance the adaptive capacity of West African populations for changing environmental (biophysical, socio-economic) and technological conditions.

4. CIWARA: Sites Country Site (district)
Rainfall (proxy for agro-ecological potential)
Population density
(proxy for intensification)
Lower
Higher
Burkina Faso
Yatenga x
Kenedougou
Ghana
Lawra/Jirapa
Tolon K.
Mali
Koutiala
Bougouni
Niger
Kollo
Aguie
Senegal
Kaffrine
Nioro

5. CIWARA: Sites, aridity index

6. CIWARA: Sites, LGP

7. CIWARA: Sites, Rainfall

8. CIWARA: Sites, Population Density

9. CIWARA: Sites, Dominant Language

10. CIWARA: facts & numbers
8 outputs:
Climates
Crops
Yields
Scales
Trade-offs
Farmers
Policy
Capacity
5 countries:
B. Faso
Ghana
Mali
Niger
Senegal
4 crops:
Maize
Millet
Sorghum
Peanut
3 CC themes:
RAPs
aggregation
uncertainty
4 themes:
climate
crop
Economics IT
3 crop models:
APSIM
DSSAT
SarraH
3 capacity builing levels:
15 scientists
(senior + junior, male + female), 10 institutions (NARS, NHMS, NGO, ARO, academia, CGIAR, ARI), 10 students (2 /country)

11. CIWARA: Approach=f(theme, scale)

12. CIWARA: Objective 1, “climates”
Objective: Assemble, curate and migrate local to regional climate, crop, economic data in a standard, open-access database
Outcome: Adequate granularity is secured to ensure representativeness and relevance of the current and future assessments for West African conditions
Lead: S.B. Traoré / Agrhymet
Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

13. CIWARA: Objective 2, “crops”
Objective: Improve and compare crop models performances for West African millets, sorghums, and their supporting soils
Outcome: Relevance of existing models to West African conditions is strengthened with key regional traits & responses incorporated, including enrichment of intra-specific agro-biodiversity in models
Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI, P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT
Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

14. CIWARA: Objective 3, “yields”
Objective: Generate contrasted yield baselines (2) and scenarios (4) for West African maize, millets, peanuts, and sorghums
Outcome: Regional climate variability and change patterns (historical, projected) are translated into yield probabilities for representative germplasm, management practices, and locations
Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI
Timeline: Jan-Jun 2013 (6 months)

15. CIWARA: Objective 4, “scales”
Objective: Aggregate point-level yield probabilities to sub-national scale and assess uncertainty thereof against independent datasets
Outcome: Sources of bias and uncertainty in aggregate production statistics (conversely: downscaled farm information services) are better understood for heterogeneous smallholder agricultural landscapes
Lead: P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT, M. Adam / CIRAD
Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

16. CIWARA: Objective 5, “trade-offs”
Objective: Elicit representative agricultural pathways and quantify climate impacts using the Trade-Off Analysis (TOA)-MD tools
Outcome: Sub-national socio-economic, technological trajectories subject to future climate forcing are simulated and used as reference in future regional assessments of climate change impacts
Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR
Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

17. CIWARA: Objective 6, “farmers”
Objective: Improve the granularity, relevance, and spatial coverage of agro-meteorological advisories for smallholder farmers
Outcome: Generic crop calendars and agro-meteorological advisories are refined into location-specific, ecotype-specific decision support tools, and scaled out from Mali to Senegal
Lead: D.Z. Diarra / Meteo-Mali, O. Ndiaye / ANACIM
Timeline: Apr-Dec 2013 (9 months)

18. CIWARA: Objective 7, “policy”
Objective: Update selected policy instruments (e.g. NAPAs) with project results at national (5 countries), regional (ECOWAS) levels
Outcome: West African policy makers are better informed about local impacts of climate variability, change, and can deploy adaptation and mitigation strategies that are more relevant and effective
Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR
Timeline: Sep Feb 2014 (5 months)

19. CIWARA: Objective 8, “capacity”
Objective: Build regional research capacity for integrated climate change impacts assessments at scientist, graduate student levels
Outcome: An “AgMIP alumni” core group is created with increased trans-disciplinary expertise and a new generation of future PhD graduates is in training within AgMIP and/or affiliated networks
Lead: S.G.K. Adiku / UG
Timeline: now-Feb 2014 (18 months)

20. CIWARA: capacity gaps BF GH ML NE SN OI: Climate ? n y O II: Crops
O III: Yields
O IV: Scales
O V: Trade- off
O VI: Farmers
OV II: Policy Y

21. Identified student topics
Host University
Local Supervisor
External
Supervisor
Student name
Variability of weather X’tics relevant to Agric win the 20th Century and CC
UGB, Saint Louis
Pr. Aliou Diop + Ousmane Ndiaye
B. Sarr, Agrhymet, Niamey
Bilal Sow
Defining production systems diversity to run crop models using expert knowledge, GIS and household statistics
UCAD, Dakar
Pr. Ali Mbaye + Ibrahima Hathie
M. Adam + P.C.S. Traore, ICRISAT, Bamako
to be identified
Integration of indigenous knowledge in meteorological advisories to farmers
U. Bamako
Pr. Bayoko + D.Z. Diarra
S.B. Traore, Agrhymet, Niamey
Comparative effects of tillering and planning density on predicted millet yield in APSIM + DSSAT
Dr. M. Kouressy + P.C.S. Traore
D.S.K. Maccarthy + M. Diancoumba, UG, Kpong
F. Akinseye? - tbi
Simulation of crop growth risks and adaptation under variable C using modeling approaches
UG, Legon
Pr. S.G.K. Adiku + D.S.K. Maccarthy
Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM, Dakar
tbi

22. Identified student topics (contd)
Host University
Local Supervisor
External
Supervisor
Student name
Implications of CC on small holder farmers in the Guinea+ Sudan Savannah zones of West Africa (NR, Ghana & S.B. Faso)
UDS, Tamale
J. Amikuzuno
M.Sanon + T. Lodoun + Pr. Tbi, Univ. Ouaga
tbi
Same as previous
(UW, Ghana & W.B.Faso)
Uni. Ouaga
Pr. tbi + M. Sanon + T. Lodoun
J. Amikuzuno, UDS, Tamale
Simulating soil water conservation methods on millet yields with APSIM/DSSAT
Uni. Ouaga
Pr. tbi
P.I. Akponikpe, Uni. Parakou
CC and adaptation strategies for agro-meteorological services
Uni. Niamey
Pr. tbi + B. Sarr
D.Z. Diarra, Meteo-Mali, Bamako
tbd
Pr. tbi + F. Dougbedji
I. Hathie, IPAR, Dakar
Simulating micro dosing effects on soil nutrients using crop modeling
Prof. Xxx /Benoit
Adiku/ Dilys (UG, Ghana)

23. CIWARA: $ resources
Univ. Ghana: USD 165,741 Agrhymet: USD 174,010 ICRISAT: USD 175,954 NARES (x4): USD 186,167 NHMS (x2): USD 98,113 _____________________ Total: USD 799,986