1. Efficient Electrification Enabling Efficient, Affordable and Sustainable Solutions
Mid-West Consumers Association Annual Meeting December 12, 2018
Rob Chapman Vice President EPRI

2. What If…
ELECTRIC LOAD
ENERGY USAGE
CARBON
NATURAL GAS
32%
22%
20%
40%

3. U.S. Power System Evolution…
PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY
EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID
ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES

4. U.S. Power System Evolution…
PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY
EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID
ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES
36%

5. Renewable & Battery Cost Trends: Unlocked Potential by 2025
2100
1650
1400
2010
2017
2025
Wind
($/kW)
Universal Solar PV: ~$0.02/kWh in high solar region; almost half the cost of rooftop solar
Wind LCOE: ~ $0.03/kWh in high wind region
Electric vehicle (~300miles): ~$7,000 decrease
Commercial building batteries: 2-year payback
Solar/wind hour storage cost = natural gas power plant
4100
1350
850
2010
2017
2025
Solar
($/kW)
1000
200
100
2010
2017
2025
Battery
($/kWh)
No breakthrough
technology needed!

6. U.S. Power System Evolution…
PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY
EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID
ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES
88GW

7. Electrification and Load Shapes…
Space Heating
Space Heating
Non-Seasonal
Non-Seasonal
Cooling
Cooling
Vehicle Charging

8. “Shared” Smart Appliance Enabled by an Integrated Grid
Intelligent set point control to provide grid benefits
Average energy draw profile of an electric water heater
Intelligent set point control, charging and discharging decoupled kW
Uncontrolled Water Heater (kWh)
Controlled Water Heater (kWh)
~150GWh across 50 million U.S. homes
Smart appliances will make it easier to engage customers in demand response programs…
Hours

9. Example: Nest’s “Rush Hour Rewards” Program
During a rush hour, Nest tweaks the temperature to save energy and keep you comfortable. You can always change the temperature.
CRITICAL RUSH HOUR UNTIL 6:00 PM
Your energy company is starting a rush hour.
MORE INFO
SWING MW OF LOAD AUTOMATICALLY; NEST, CUSTOMERS AND UTILITY BENEFITS
Source:

10. Power System Evolution…
PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY
EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID
ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES
21%

11. The Technology Driven Efficiency Trend
Decoupling of Economy and Energy Use
Consumer Electronics
1990s • 27” CRT 125W
2005 • 55” Plasma
500W
2010 • 56” LED
175W
2012 • 56” LED
100W
2013 • 55” Organic LED
<30W
Cathode Ray Tube
Plasma
LED
Organic LED (OLED)

12. Establishing Potential…Varies by End-Use Application
TRANSPORT
BUILDINGS
INDUSTRY
44%
30%
26%
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY
96%
56%
61%
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL

13. U.S. Electrification Assessment – Use of Energy 2015 - 2050
REFERENCE SCENARIO
Quad BTUs
Total NG ~37 Tcf
Electricity ~4930 TWh
End-use
Electricity generation/upstream
32%
40%
40%
Cars and Light Trucks
Heavy-duty Trucks
Bus / Transit / Rail
Space Heating
Cool / Light / Appl. / Elec.
Buildings Other
Industry Process
Constr. / Ag. / Min.
Industry Boilers
Industry Other
TRANSPORTATION
BUILDINGS
INDUSTRY
* Final Energy, excludes upstream and midstream energy use, e.g., power generation, oil and gas extraction, refining, and pipelines

14. Critical Trends – Electric Vehicle1 4
TRANSPORT MARKET PROFILE
SIGNPOSTS
POLICY & RREGULATION
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE
INCREASE IN MODEL OPTIONS
EXPANDING PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
INNOVATION IN FAST CHARGING
LI-ION BATTERY COSTS 1
44%
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY 2 3 2 5
96%
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL 4 5 3 6
66%
ENERGY CONSUMED BY LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES 6

15. Transportation
Energy Efficient…Clean Air…Economic Benefits

16. Energy Efficient… Clean Air…Health Benefits
Industry Applications
Energy Efficient… Clean Air…Health Benefits

17. Less Water…Less Pesticide… More Yield
Indoor Agriculture
Less Water…Less Pesticide… More Yield

18. Efficient Electrification…Win…Win…Win
5.3
$36T
4.6
Gross Domestic Product (In 2015 $)
4.3
Billion Tons CO2 61 51
Energy-related CO2 Emissions 47
Quads
$4,530
$3,940
Total Final Energy Use
$18T
$2,720
$9T
Reference Scenario
Total Energy Cost
1987
2015
2050