1. Political Conflict
Nigeria

2. What are the ways Nigerians can impact politics?
intro
What are the ways Nigerians can impact politics?

3. Party Systems & Elections
Nigeria

4. Nigeria Party System System
Politics is based entirely around self enrichment
Parties have formed under democratic regimes & disappeared under military dictatorships
Most historical parties formed along ethnic lines
Both democratic and military regimes have made attempts to establish cross ethnic national parties
Until recently, parties match ethnicities and regions more than they fit on a
left-right political continuum

5. Nigeria Elections & Parties Parties in 1979
Parties were banned from the beginning of military rule until 1978
Obasanjo legalized political parties in preparation for the transition to democratic rule
In 1978, 150 parties were formed
In 1979 Shehu Shagari was elected president & tried to impose order by forming national political parties
Parties had to win one fourth of the votes in two thirds of the states
Parties had to be open to all Nigerians

6. Nigeria Elections & Parties 1985 - 1993
Only 5 parties were viable for the 1979 and 1983 – then military coups banned all the parties again
Under General Babangida, the National Election Commission tried to design a two party system
It was clear that this would lead to a Christian southern party and a Muslim northern party – so they went back to 5
Babangida shut down the commission & made two parties : one “a little to the left” and one “a little to the right”
He announced the transition to civilian rule with an election between the Social Democratic Party & the National Republican Convention

7. Nigeria Elections & Parties 1993 - 1999
The election resulted in Mashood Abiola winning & the military annulled the results
There was another coup & General Abacha took charge and made 5 parties that were all loyal to him
All 5 nominated Abacha for president!
General Abubaker prepared for a transition to democracy in 1999
He would only allow parties that had maintained national organizations.
9 met that qualification, but he took the top 3 vote getters

8. Nigeria Elections & Parties 1999
The three parties allowed reflected the regional & ethnic differences
The People’s Democratic Party was made up of mostly northern Hausas
The All People’s Party was mostly made up of the eastern Igbo
The Alliance for Democracy was mostly made up of western Yoruba
The PDP chose to nominate Obasanjo, because he was an old general despite being a Yoruba Christian

9. In 2007, PDP transferred its support from Obasanjo to Yar’Adua
Nigeria
Fourth Republic
PDP Elections
In the Fourth Republic, parties have established some cross ethnic appeal
With each subsequent election, there has been less regional base for the parties
The PDP dominated the elections until 2015, helped by patronage networks
In 2007, PDP transferred its support from Obasanjo to Yar’Adua
Foreign observers concluded the election was rigged so badly it “lacked even the pretense of democratic plausibility”

10. Yar’Adua died 3 years into office & Goodluck Jonathan took over
Nigeria
Fourth Republic
Zoning
Yar’Adua died 3 years into office & Goodluck Jonathan took over
He was seen as a “caretaker” until 2011 when the political bosses would get to pick a northerner to resume their turn in the “zoning system”
Zoning refers to the practice of the PDP of rotating leadership between the north and south after each president’s two term limit
Jonathan did get rid of the head of the election commission and the 2011 and 2015 elections have been the cleanest elections that Nigeria has held

11. Nigeria Fourth Republic 2015
The three largest opposition parties merged in 2015 to form the All Progressives Congress
In the 2015 election, Jonathan was defeated by the APC’s Buhari, a former military dictator
Power shifting from PDP to APC marks the first peaceful transition of power from one elected party to another
Nigeria finally seems headed toward a two party system that can offer real choice to Nigerian voters

12. Parties are still plagued by corruption and economic troubles.
Nigeria
Fourth Republic
Problems
Parties are still plagued by corruption and economic troubles.
During PDP rule the country earned $500 billion in oil revenue, but most of that has not been invested or distributed
The missing revenue is in the hands of the regional & national PDP elite
In 2013, polls indicated that 2/3 of Nigerians were “not satisfied” with democracy

13. Nigeria Fourth Republic Problems
Ethnic and religious fault lines are still apparent in the parties
Buhari won 54% of the votes, but only 5% of the votes in the south
Jonathan got 45% of the vote, but only performed well in 3 states in the north
The parties may have multiethnic elements because the oil revenues make ties between elites
The patronage system has mostly just helped incumbents & people don’t see much good coming from them.

14. Nigeria Fourth Republic Improvements
Elections in 2011 and 2015 were Nigeria’s cleanest election
In 2010 Jonathan got rid of the corrupt director of the Election Commission
He replaced the corrupt commission with respected academics
All 73 million voters were fingerprinted & scanned at polls to monitor voting
The 2015 elections also had the FEWEST CASUALTIES of any election so far!!!

15. Civil Society
Nigeria

16. These groups help to foster some national integration.
Nigeria
Civil Society
Organizations
Under the Fourth Republic, groups and organizations have spread & strengthened
NGOs get support from across the cultural spectrums; they aren’t victims of identity and ethnic politics
These groups help to foster some national integration.
Ethnic & religious associations have always been important to Nigerians
These have promoted economic interests somewhat & help their members try to start business or save

17. Nigeria Civil Society MOSOP
The Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People was started by
Ken Saro-Wiwa to protect his people
They used a variety of legal & non legal tactics to get more financial benefits for the Ogoni people in the south
They worked to protect the Niger Delta from the environmental destruction caused by the oil production
They have continued their work and been successful even after Saro-Wiwa’s execution in the 1990s.

18. Nigeria Civil Society MEND
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta is an umbrella group of militant subgroups
They are notorious for bunkering, kidnapping foreign oil workers, and attacking oil facilities
President Yar’Adua negotiated a truce & amnesty with them to reduce violence in the region, but it has not stopped it all.

19. Nigeria Civil Society Boko Haram
Muslim extremism is on the rise in the northern parts of Nigeria
Boko Haram pushes for wider application of Sharia law in the region
Their presence is strongest in the northeast – currently Nigeria’s single largest threat to peace
In 2014 they reached their height of global “fame” with the kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls

20. Nigeria Civil Society Muslims
The Hausa & Fulani people practice orthodox Sunni Islam
Some lower class Hausa practice forms of Sufi Islam which is very different.
The radical extremism of Boko Haram is also at odds with mainstream Islam
Some liberal Muslim groups even advocate for secular government.

21. Nigeria Civil Society Unions
Unions of workers have some power in the political process
The National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) have a great deal of political leverage
Unions for legal, medical, and journalism professionals have begun to articulate the political interests of a growing professional class
NGOs promoting civil rights have been engaged in monitoring elections

22. Ethnicity
Nigeria

23. Each group views politics somewhat in “zero sum” terms
Nigeria
Ethnicity
Ethnicity
Nigeria has more than 250 different ethnic groups & even more languages
Each group views politics somewhat in “zero sum” terms
A victory of some kind by one group is viewed as a blow to the interests of another.
Military leaders used these fears and ethnic tensions as justification for authoritarianism, arguing that democracy exacerbated these issues

24. Nigeria Ethnicity Improvements
To relieve these tensions, the state has…
Created more states
Changed the party system to force them to be multi-ethnic
Moved from a parliamentary system to a presidential system
Moved the capital from Lagos (Yoruba) to newly built Abuja – with no dominant ethnic group

25. Nigeria Ethnicity Problems
Communal violence has risen since the end of military rule
State can’t suppress the public as much
Ethnic conflicts have killed thousands and displaced millions of Nigerians
Violence almost always begins with disputes about oil revenues, jobs, or control of other resources
Incomes in the northeast are less than half of those in the south
Less than 5% of women in the northeast are able to read and write

26. Ideology
Nigeria

27. The parties are built around individual leaders and ethnic groups
Nigeria
Ideology
Ideology
The parties are built around individual leaders and ethnic groups
Ideology plays a limited role, people’s communal concerns are more important
Nigerians have a low sense of patriotism, a result of their stronger local identities
Some aspects of Nigerian political culture support the state and democracy
Nigerians strongly oppose the idea of a political system dominated by a single party or leader

28. Goodluck with this stuff
Nigeria

29. Changes to Political Parties
Main Ideas
Nigeria
Changes to Political Parties
Boko Haram
Ethnic Tensions
Lack of Ideology
Goodluck’s Guidance