1. Scenarios and Scanning Jessica Palmer
History
Present
Scanning Trends: Social, Cultural, Political, Economic
Proposed Future Scenarios
Informed Decision Making
Futuring Methodology
Scenarios and Scanning
Jessica Palmer

2. Scenarios Benefits Challenges
“Don't limit a child to your own learning, for he was born in another time.” - Rabindranath Tagore
Scenarios
Benefits
Challenges
Organize information into a manageable framework
Encourage strategic decision making
Support long-term goal setting
Planning and preparation
Highlights strengths and weaknesses of possible decisions
Accuracy
Variables and Unknowns
Steady Influx of New Information
Constantly evolving scenarios
Complexity
Multiple scenarios can be overwhelming
Single scenario can be too simplistic
Focus on optimistic scenarios
under preparedness

3. Scanning Benefits Challenges
“The principle goal of education in the schools should be creating men and women who are capable of doing new things, not simply repeating what other generations have done.”
- Jean Piage
Scanning
Benefits
Challenges
Systematic approach to information gathering
Focuses on trends
Considers multiple influences:
Technologic, social, historic, cultural, etc.
Internet provides multitudes of resources for scanning
Gives context to inform scenarios
Enormous scope of resource material to scan
Some variables unknown
Information becomes obsolete quickly
Viral trends/information spreading rapidly

4. Resources
Barseghian, T. (2011, Feb 4) Three trends that will shape the future of curriculum. Accessed Via:
future-of-curriculum/
Chermack, T. J., & Coons, L. M. (2015). Integrating scenario planning and design thinking:
Learnings from the 2014 Oxford Futures Forum. Futures. Vol. 10.
Clardy, A. (2011). Six Worlds of Tomorrow. World Future Review (World Future Society), 3(2),
37-48.
Cohen, Donald and K. Narayanaswamy. Using First-Order Logic to Query Heterogeneous
Internet Data Sources. Procedia Computer Science. Volume 62, 2015, Pages 170– 177 doi: /j.procs
Farris, David and Tracy, Drew. School Shooting Preparedness Requires Complex Training.
Homeland Security and Public Safety. July 5, Accessed Via:
Scenarios.html
Horizon Report K-12 Edition. (2014) annual report of the NMC. Retrieved from
KahnAcademy. Year 2060: Education Predictions. December 27, Accessed Via:
Kawamoto, Tatsuro; Hatano, Naomichi. Viral spreading of daily information in online social
networks. Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. Science Direct. July 15, 2014
KnowledgeWork (n.d.) Forecast 3.0:A Glimpse into the Future of Learning. Accessed Via:
Learning-Infographic_0.pdf
KnowledgeWork (n.d.) The Learning System of 2025: Scenario Overview. Accessed Via: df
Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for
strategic foresight. Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220–239.
New Media Consortium (NMC). (2015).
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Giving Knowledge
for Free; THE EMERGENCE OF OPEN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES.
(2007).Patton, Kermit M. The role of scanning in open intelligence systems. Technological Forecasting
and Social Change. Vol. 72: 9. November Abstract.
Sobrero, P., (2004). The steps for futuring. Journal of Extention, 42(3).
Wilburn, Kathleen M. and Wilburn, Ralph H. Scenarios and Strategic Decision Making. Journal
of Management Policy and Practice vol. 12(4) 2011
World Future Society (n.d.) Methods. Accessed Via:
World Future Society (n.d.) Dictionary of Foresight. Accessed Via: