1. Mariel Santa CruzGuiteras Céspedes Nuevitas Felton Rente Dr. Manuel Cereijo, P.E. University of Miami August, 2009 Republic of Cuba Power Sector Infrastructure Assessment

2. Content of Presentation Effect of 2008 Hurricanes Smart grid Smart Generation Conclusions

3. Hurricanes in 2008 Tropical Depression Fay Hurricane Gustav Hurricane Ike

4. Map of Cuba

5. Hurricane Fay Path

6. Hurricane Gustav Path

7. Hurricane Ike Path

8. ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES FAY, GUSTAV AND IKE ON THE POWER SECTOR The impact affected: Power generating units Transmission lines Transmission towers and poles Transformers Insulators Cables Public Lighting system

9. MOST AFFECTED PROVINCES Guantanamo Holguin Las Tunas Camaguey Ciego de Avila Matanzas Pinar del Rio Isla de la Juventud

10. SPECIFIC DAMAGES: Isla de la Juventud 100% of the transmission lines were down 550 transformers were damaged 950 tons of electric conductors 5,120 poles and towers were down 43,400 electrical insulators A wind farm on Playa Bibijagua was completely down The gasifier plant, a common project with GEF, UNEP, was 70% damaged. Entire system had to be reconstructed

11. SPECIFIC DAMAGES: Pinar del Rio/Mariel 150 Transmission towers of 220 Kv were destroyed 20 transmission towers of 110Kv were destroyed 4,800 poles were knocked down 6,100 transformers were damaged 5,500 public lighting units were damaged Entire system had to be reconstructed

12. DAMAGES IN GENERAL CHANGE CONNECTING CABLES TO HOMES: 2.9 Million Homes REPAIRING SUB STATIONS: 965 substations RE INSTALLATON OF DISTRIBUTION LINES: 120,000 Kms REPLACEMENT OF TRANSFORMERS: 65,000

13. DAMAGES IN GENERAL INSTALLATION OF POLES: 235,567 poles INSTALLATION OF BREAKERS: 4.2 MILLION BREAKERS INSTALLATION OF METERS: 1.8 MILLION OF METERS

14. DAMAGES IN GENERAL REPLACEMENT OF 105,000 PUBLIC LIGHTING UNITS

15. MAIN PLANTS AFFECTED Antonio Guiteras, Matanzas. It had been modernized in 2002-2004, at a cost of $65 million dollars. Turbines and output transformer were damaged Lidio Ramon Perez, Felton, near Holguin. It had been modernized in 2006-2008 at a cost of $85 million dollars. Output transformer completely destroyed. Turbine damaged Maximo Gomez, Mariel. It had been modernized in 2005- 2007 at a cost of $100 million dollars. Major damages in the MVLs. 10 de Octubre, Nuevitas. Modernized between 1998-2006, at a cost of $80 million dollars. Damaged in the air heaters, pumps.

16. MAIN WIND POWER GENERATING UNITS AFFECTED Main wind power generating units affected were: In Gibara, north of Holguin, 5.1 MW, six units, its transmission line and a 33 kV substation In Isla de la Juventud, 55 meters windmills, in Los Camarreos, 1.54 MW

17. 2009

18. TRANSMISSION LINES REPLACEMENT COSTS Voltage Level, kVPesos/Km 220105,000 11085,000 3363,000 13.860,000 4.1611,000

19. MAIN TRANSMISSION LINES REPLACEMENT COSTS Voltage level, kV Kms needed Investment, million pesos 22080084 110100091 3310,000630 13.815,000900 4.1625,000225 Total51,8001,930

20. COST OF REPARING SECONDARY DISTRIBUTION LINES Voltage level, Volts Pesos/Km, average Kms needed Total cost, million pesos 440/240/1202,50069,000172.5

21. COST OF REPLACING SUBSTATIONS kVQtyCost average, dollars Total, millions, dollars 4.165008,0004.0 13.84009,0003.6 Higher kV6550,0003.25 Total96510.85

22. COST OF REPAIRING TRANSFORMERS kV levelQtyCost, dollarsTotal, million dollars 2204250,0001.0 1107220,0001.54 331504,0000.60 13.8253,0000.075 Distribution Level 44, 8001,1004.93 TOTAL44,9868.145

23. COST OF REPAIRING GENERATING PLANTS PLANTCost, millions dollars Antonio Guiteras5.3 Lidio Ramon Perez10.5 Maximo Gomez12.6 10 de Octubre14.8 TOTAL43.2

24. ELECTRIC METER READING REPLACEMENT COST Qty, millionsCost/unit, dollarsTotal Cost, million dollars 1.85090 TOTAL90

25. COST OF REPLACING BREAKERS Qty, millionsVolt levelCost average, dollars Total Cost, million dollars 2.5240/480100250 1.7Higher voltage400680 TOTAL930

26. COST OF INSTALLING NEW PUBLIC LIGHTS QtyCost average, dollarsTotal Cost, million dollars 105,00025026.3 TOTAL26.3

27. TOTAL COST OF REPAIRING HURRICANE DAMAGES ITEMSTOTAL COST, Million dollars Generating Plants43.2 Transformers8.15 Substations10.85 Main Transmission Lines78 Public Lights26.3 Electric Meters90 Breakers930 Secondary Transmission Lines7 Miscellaneous20 TOTAL1,213.50

28. OBJECTIVES FOR FUTURE POWER SECTOR IN CUBA SMART GRID SMART GENERATION

29. MODERNIZING THE GRIDGRID Modernizing Cubas electric system is a substantial undertaking. The nations aging electro-mechanical electric grid would not keep pace with innovations in the digital information and telecommunications network. Power outages and power quality disturbances will cost the economy millions of dollars annually.

30. MODERNIZING THE GRID Cubas electric system is aging, inefficient, and congested, and incapable of meeting the future energy needs of the Information Economy without operational changes and substantial capital investment over the next decade

31. SMART GRID Smart Grid uses digital technology to improve reliability, security, and efficiency of the electric system: from large generation, through the delivery systems to electricity consumers and a growing number of distributed-generation and storage resources.. Intelligent devices can automatically adjust to changing conditions to prevent blackouts and increase capacity. Smart Grid refers to an improved electricity supply chain that runs from a major power plant all the way inside your home. The reliability of electrical power in Cuba will decline even more unless we do something about it as soon as democracy is in place.

32. The basic concept of Smart Grid is to add monitoring, analysis, control, and communication capabilities to the national electrical delivery system to maximize the throughput of the system while reducing the energy consumption. The Smart Grid will allow generating plants to move electricity around the system as efficient and economically as possible. It will also allow homes and businesses to use electricity as economically as possible. SMART GRID

33. It is a colossal task. But it is a task that must be done. While it is running. Full-tilt. SMART GRID

34. SMART GENERATION Cuba will have to consider also SMART GENERATION Natural gas Oil Nuclear Solar power Biomass Wind power

35. Future investment in power generation New combined cycle unit, G gas turbines and Heat Recovery Steam Generators, in combined cycle configuration. Unit designed to use natural gas as primary fuel, and capable of using distilled (light) oil as back up fuel. On natural gas, the average heat rate is about 6,580 Btu/kwh. Cost estimate: $867/kw (dollars USA) Cost based on 2012 US dollars They do not include the cost of transmission facilities that are specific to each plant location within the grid in Cuba.

36. Future investment in power generation New gas combustion turbine in single cycle configuration. Heat rate at 100% power on natural gas is 10,400 Btu/kwh. Cost estimate: $647/kw.(dollars USA) Cost based on 2012 US dollars

37. Future investment in power generation Under plant conversions, removing existing oil-or gas fueled steam plants, and replacing them with the same design large combined cycle unit describe in slide before. These conversions changes the existing generating capacity to much more efficient, lower emission generation, which reduces fuel use and emissions of SO2, NOx,CO2 and particulates. Cost estimate: $800/kw(dollars USA) Cost based on 2012 US dollars

38. Decision to make in Cuba: Fuel oil vs. Gas An important decision for investors in the electrical power sector in Cuba will be if power plants should use fuel oil or gas. The answer depends on the technology. Let us first analyze the Btu, or million Btu (MMBtu) of fuel per unit of electricity. MMBtu then can be converted to barrels of tons of oil. There are about 6.38 MMBtu per barrel of No. 6 fuel oil. There are about 5.5 MMBtu per barrel of No. 2 fuel oil. To generate 100,000 MWH of electricity at a steam unit we need about 1,000,000 MMBtu of No. 6 fuel oil, or about 1,090,000 MMBtu of natural gas.

39. Decision to make in Cuba: Fuel oil vs. Gas For a new combined cycle unit the heat rate using natural gas will be 6.58 MMBtu per MWH and that with No.2 fuel oil will be about 4% lower, or about 6.32 MMBtu per MWH. Therefore, to generate 100,000 MWH at a combined cycle unit we will need about 632,000 MMBtu of No. fuel oil, or about 658,000 MMBtu of natural gas. Note that the price of No. 2 fuel oil (in MMBtu) is much higher than that of natural gas, and of No. 6 fuel oil, so that despite this small advantage in heat rate, No. 2 oil is seldom used in combined cycle units.

40. PROJECTED FUEL COST BASED ON 2009 MARKET CONDITIONS* Year Natural gas ($/MMBtu) Residual Fuel oil ($/MMBtu) Distillate Fuel oil ($/MMBtu) Coal ($/MMBtu) 200912.6616.7227.655.51 201011.3716.8426.712.66 201110.2114.8721.972.53 201210.0214.8922.152.48 20139.1213.4617.652.46 20149.2813.6918.032.50 20159.4313.9318.392.54 20169.7414.1518.742.58 *Note that these projections are subject to change at any time, and in fact can change daily.

41. 201710.2114.4219.122.61 201810.9614.6819.482.65 201911.9514.9419.862.69 202012.4215.2220.232.73 202112.9715.9421.072.77 202213.5516.7021.952.81 202314.1617.4922.872.86 *Note that these projections are subject to change at any time, and in fact can change daily. Year Natural gas ($/MMBtu) Residual Fuel oil ($/MMBtu) Distillate Fuel oil ($/MMBtu) Coal ($/MMBtu) PROJECTED FUEL COST BASED ON 2009 MARKET CONDITIONS*

42. The use of coal It is not recommended for Cuba because coal is one of the most impure of fuels. Cuba does not have a significant amount of coal and it would depend on imports for any large use of coal in the generation of power. The cost of a pulverized coal plant, projected to 2013, is $2,138 per kW of capacity. This cost includes all necessary equipment for the protection of the environment. However, price of coal, in $/MMBtu, is cheaper than all other fuels.

43. Biomass power generation Biomass is obtained from numerous sources, including by-products from the timber industry, agricultural crops, raw material from the forest, major parts of household waste, and demolition wood Unlike renewable-based systems that require costly advanced technology, biomass can generate electricity with the same type of equipment and power plants that now burn fossil fuels. Most biomass power plants operating today are characterized by low boiler and thermal-plant efficiencies; both the fuel's characteristics and the small size of most facilities contribute to these efficiencies. In addition, such plants are costly to build. Today's best biomass-based power plants cost approximately $2,000 per kilowatt of electricity to build, with a thermal efficiency of about 40 percent.

44. Wind power for generation Wind power is produced in large scale wind farms connected to electrical grids, as well as in individual turbines for providing electricity to isolated locations. Since wind speed is not constant, a wind farms annual energy production is never as much as the sum of the generator nameplate ratings multiplied by the total hours in a year. The ratio of actual productivity in a year to this theoretical maximum is called the capacity factor. Typical capacity factors are 20-40%, with values at the upper end of the range in particularly favorable sites. Good selection of a wind turbine site is critical to economic development of wind power. Aside from the availability of wind itself, other significant factors include the availability of transmission lines, value of energy to be produced, cost of land acquisition, land use considerations, and environmental impact of construction and operations. Off-shore locations may offset their higher construction cost with higher annual load factors, thereby reducing cost of energy produced.

45. SOLAR ENERGY Solar energy is an alternative with a lot of potential. It's environmentally friendly because it produces no emissions or noise. It's fueled by one of Cuba's most abundant resources -- the sun. But while energy from the sun is virtually limitless, it's expensive to convert to usable electricity. The technology is improving almost daily. It's becoming more cost-effective.

46. How does solar power work? PhotovoltaicPhotovoltaic (or PV) systems directly convert sunlight into electricity using solid-state technology. All solar power generated will feed directly into Cuba's grid and then into homes. During operation, PV creates no noise because it has no movable parts, and no pollution or hazardous wastes because no fuel is burned.

47. What are the benefits of solar power? keeps the air clean uses a secure and replenishable natural resource and reduces dependency on fossil fuels such as oil and gas. The benefits of solar power are that it:

48. NUCLEAR POWER Nuclear power is any nuclear technology designed to extract usable energy from atomic nuclei via controlled nuclear reactions. The only method in use today is through nuclear fissionatomic nucleinuclear fission As of 2008, nuclear power provided 2.5% of the world's energy and 16% of the world's electricity As of 2008, the IAEA reported there are 440 nuclear power reactors in operation in the world, operating in 31 countriesIAEA

49. NUCLEAR POWER GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Westinghouse AREVA NP Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), Ltd. There are four nuclear power plant manufacturers worldwide:

50. NUCLEAR POWER EPR – European Pressurized Reactor (1,600 MWe) ESBWR – Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (1,550 MWe), produced by GE ABWR – Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (1,350 MWe), GE Hitachi AP1000 – Gen III+ (1,117 MWe), Westinghouse US-APBR – Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor (1,538 MWe), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries – U.S. version of Japanese design There are five basic designs:

51. NUCLEAR POWER Waste disposal continues to be the major obstacle to the growth of nuclear power. However, waste is now being safely kept in rooms no larger than 400 square feet. Nuclear power plants produce no controlled air pollutants or greenhouse gases. The use of nuclear energy in place of other energy source helps to keep the air clean preserves the earths climate, avoid ground-level ozone formation, and prevent acid rain.

52. GROSS GENERATION FUEL OIL/NATURAL GAS YEARGIGAWATT HOUR TOTAL200615850 200716844 200816200 FUEL OIL200613,750 200714353 200813800 ENERGAS20062100 20072491 20082400

53. GROSS GENERATION FUEL OIL/NATURAL GAS

54. GRUPOS ELECTROGENOS (DISTRIBUED GENERATION) YEARDieselFUEL 2007934153 2008927262 TOTAL10871189

55. CONCLUSIONS The total cost of repairing the damages caused by the 2008 hurricanes is estimated in: $1,213.5 million dollars As of August 2009, the damages have been repaired in a 75%

56. CONCLUSIONS SMART GRID SMART GENERATION THE MAIN OBJECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE OF CUBAs POWER SECTOR ARE:

57. CONCLUSIONS Natural gas/fuel oil as main combustible Solar power/wind power as auxiliary units, specially for peak demand hours A careful study should be conducted regarding possible use of nuclear power FOR SMART GENERATION, CUBAs POWER GENERATION SHOULD USE:

58. CONCLUSIONS Cuba's overall energy infrastructure – from refineries to power-generating plants to electrical grids to local wiring – is in an advanced state of decay, and will require significant investment to upgrade.