1. INTACT Project: Guiding The User
Dr. William Hynes
Future Analytics Consulting (FAC)
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no

2. Agenda Project background The project team Project approach
The case study areas
What INTACT delivers
Status
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INTACT – Introduction

3. Project background
INTACT is a EU funded project which aims to offer Decision Support:
to Critical Infrastructure (CI) operators and policy makers regarding Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) against changing Extreme Weather Event (EWE) risks caused by climate change.
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INTACT – Introduction

4. Project background Key elements:
Climate and Extreme Weather Collect and analyse trends, patterns and tendencies in extreme weather.
Vulnerability and Resilience of European Critical Infrastructure Develop a methodological framework for CI vulnerability assessment and an analysis of CI protection measures.
Risk and Risk Analysis Develop methodology and tools for risk management, and indicate gaps in risk modelling and data availability. 
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INTACT – Introduction

5. Project background Key elements:
Stakeholder Engagement and Dissemination Collect and disseminate best practices and bring together stakeholders.
Case Studies Performing five case studies to test the developed methods.
INTACT Wiki Decision support tool for CI operators and policy makers.
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INTACT – Introduction

6. The project team The project is led by TNO.
13 partners from across the EU:
RTOs
Industry
Academia
SMEs
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INTACT

7. Project approach MEANS GOAL Sustained Resilience and
Realised through providing guidance on how to determine future risks due to climate change, and best practices on protective measures as well as crisis response and recovery capabilities. 
Develop and demonstrate methods and tools that will enable CI operators and CIP policy makers to plan for infrastructure resilience and risks posed to CI taking account of future climate change.
MEANS
GOAL
Sustained Resilience and
Business Continuity
Awareness of problem of changing EWE risks
Supporting assessment of changing hazards due to climate change
Supporting determination of needed mitigation measures for new risks
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INTACT – Introduction

8. The case study areas Case Study D – Southern Finland
Rural electricity distribution in extreme winter conditions.
Case Study B – Port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Port of Rotterdam and its hinterland transport connections under local EWEs.
Case Study A – South West Region of Ireland Extreme Weather Events which have impacted upon CI.
Case Study C – Southern/Central Italy
Rainfall induced landslides in the different geomorphologic contexts.
Case Study E – Southern Spain
Effects of drought, heatwaves and flash floods on CIs.
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INTACT

9. What INTACT delivers The INTACT Wiki is:
A platform in which the knowledge, tools and methods, developed in the project are shared with the world.
On it, you can find information, references, guidance and experiences on how to ensure continued resilience of critical infrastructures in the context of changing climate and related EWEs.
This information is primarily directed at operators of CIs and policy makers involved with these.
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INTACT

10. What INTACT delivers The INTACT Wiki contains:
Large amounts of interconnected information that attempts to cover the needs of a wide range of potential users.
We provide several entry points that direct them to the various sections of the wiki that would be of most interest.
A clickable graphical representation of the main elements.
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INTACT

11. What INTACT delivers
Specifically, the Wiki provides public access to all required information to determine:
Whether future climate change could pose a threat to my infrastructures;
What vulnerabilities are relevant in these future circumstances?
What is the future risk?
What can I do? What are best practices?
What are the cost vs. the benefits?
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INTACT

12. What INTACT delivers A look at the opening page of the Wiki:
Introduction to climate change
Understanding Cascading Effects
Introduction to extreme weather
Relationship with critical infrastructures
Risk Framework
Application of tools in case studies
Societal Effects
Interactive Map with extreme weather predictions
Introduction to induced hazards
Reference section: glossary and quick introduction
Project information
Including video
To the tools and guidance
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13. What INTACT delivers
The Risk Framework Based on the classic risk terminology and approach and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (2014):
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INTACT

14. What INTACT delivers The key steps
The Risk Framework A proven process to manage risks to CI due to changing climate conditions with for each of the “risk management” steps set within a “decision support framework”:
Applicable to existing and futue scenarios;
Provides explanation and guidance;
Tools to support each step;
References to useful resources.
The key steps
(based on ISO 31000)
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INTACT

15. What INTACT delivers The Decision Support Framework
The INTACT Overall decision framework features the risk process that will support an end-user in undertaking a complete risk management process concerning risks related to changing climate or weather conditions.
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INTACT

16. What INTACT delivers
Factors of vulnerability and resilience have been identified through historic data and analysis of CI structure and stakeholder interviews, and have been subdivided into:
Generic vulnerability and resilience factors;
Infrastructure-specific vulnerability and resilience factors;
Societal, economic, cultural, institutional and physical factors.
Table are sortable, so user can search for:
CI vulnerable to specific threat
Vulnerabilities of specific CI sector or subsector
References to pages explaining vulnerabilities
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INTACT

17. What INTACT delivers The Tools and Guidance
Within Step 5 “Proposals for action”
This step in the risk management process is concerned with deriving potentially suitable mitigation measures, and assessing whether they can contribute to reducing the risk to CI.
Numerous tools and methods are presented to assess proposals for action: Brainstorming and workshops, Interviews and questionnaires, Delphi method, Field visits, Deterministic weather/hazard models, Scenario analysis, Cause-and-effect analysis, Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA).
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18. What INTACT delivers
The Tools and Guidance Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
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19. What INTACT delivers The Interactive Map
An interactive map with data on changes in frequency and strength of extreme weather events.
For the short-term ( ), medium (2041–2070) and the long-term (2071–2100) time periods.
For each 30*30 km cell on the map of Europe.
Specifying:
Expected frequency/strength, change per year, difference with current situation;
For temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and combinations thereof.
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INTACT

20. What INTACT delivers The workings of the Interactive Map
Select time period
Select type of extreme weather (precipitation, snow, temperature, wind, or combinations of these)
Select extreme weather indicator (EWI) associated with the above event
View legend with explanation of EWI and scales
Select whether to illustrate:
Expected values;
Change of values compared to now;
Expected change of value per year.
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INTACT

21. Status Content almost complete
Testing content in cases and adding user feedback in progress (Sept – Oct 2016)
Project ends April 2017
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INTACT

22. INTACT Project: Guiding The User
Dr. William Hynes
Future Analytics Consulting (FAC) –
Contact Number –
01/05/2019
INTACT