1. Huang Fei National center for TB control and prevention, China
China presentation
Huang Fei
National center for TB control and prevention, China

2. Questions
Learn about direct and indirect methods to estimate TB incidence
Learn about the methods used by WHO to estimate TB incidence in China
Assess whether current methods are appropriate for China
Determine the methods that can be used to estimate province-specific incidences
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3. Estimation methods using prevalence survey data
WHO used 1990 ARI data to estimate current TB incidence
Prevalence method can be used to estimate province-specific incidence in China
The parameters associated with the current estimate of average duration of illness, such as proportion of type of treatment and the duration of illness, maybe not correct
However, there is insufficient data to determine the actual duration of illness (and their associated parameters)
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4. Estimation method using notification data
Can be used to estimate incidence in Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin (municipalities with relatively small, urban population and good reporting system)
Analysis of notification data can help determine remaining gap in notification; another way to check the province-specific estimates using prevalence method.
Large variation in case-finding effort at local level may indicate remaining gap in case-finding
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5. Next step
To calculate province-specific incidence, we need the following:
Analyze existing data (prevalence survey in 1979,1984/85,1990, 2000) to estimate prevalence of each provinces
Estimate the average duration of illness for each province (including associated parameters)
Analyze notification data to determine variation in programme/case-finding effort between provinces. Use information to compare with estimates of incidence using prevalence method.
Hold additional discussions with other experts in China
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6. Thank you
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