1. UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC
H. J. BOSHOFF
AND
R. CORNWELL

2. SCOPE BACKGROUND AFTER SUN CITY PRETORIA DEAL
CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION
INCIDENTS
MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL
CONCLUSION

3. BACKGROUND 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT
THREE YEARS LATER AND THE PARTIAL FAILURE OF THE ICD(SUN CITY) DID NOT END THE FIGHTING IN THE KIVUS
MONUC NOT ABLE TO IMPLEMENT DDRRR
PRETORIA DEAL BRINGS NEW HOPE OF PEACE

4. AFTER SUN CITY
AFTER SEVEN WEEKS OF NEGOTIATIONS AT SUN CITY A PARTIAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN KABILA AND BEMBA
END OF THE ICD WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF LUSAKA AGREEMENT
RCD-G AND RWANDA LEFT IN THE COLD
THE ISSUE OF DISARMING OF RWANDAN LIBERATION ARMY(ALIR) IS CRUCIAL, NO NEGOTIATIONS ON POWER SHARING AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN FORCES WILL SUCCEED UNLESS THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED
THE PRETORIA DEAL IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME THERE IS EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL WILL FROM RWANDA AND DRC GOVT TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE.
THIS CAN LEAD TO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ALL ROLE PLAYERS, POSSIBLY FACILITATED BY PRESIDENT MBEKI

5. PRETORIA DEAL
THE PRETORIA DEAL ADDRESSES ONE OF THE KEY ASPECTS OF LUSAKA, THE DISARMING OF ALIR FORCES
PRETORIA DEAL PROVIDED AN INDICATION OF THE POLITICAL WILL FOR DISARMAMENT FROM THE DRC AND RWANDA, MONITORED BY A THIRD PARTY(UN AND SOUTH AFRICA)
IT IS FORESEEN THAT MONUC WILL IMPLEMENT THE DEAL AS PART OF PHASE 3, DDRRR
THE KEY TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME INTER ALIA:
FINALISATION OF MONUC PHASE 3 WITHIN 15 DAYS OF SIGNATURE
ESTABLISHMENT AND OPERATIONALISATION OF ASSEMBLY POINTS WITHIN 25 DAYS OF SIGNATURE
DDRRR OF ALIR TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 90 DAYSOF SIGNATURE
WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS WITHIN 90 DAYS OF SIGNATURE

6. PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)
ADMISSION BY DRC GOVT OF SUPPORT TO ALIR AND COMMITMENT TO COLLABORATE WITH MONUC TO DISARM THESE FORCES
DRC TO RE-ESTABLISH CONTROL OVER TERRITORIES PRESENTLY OCCUPIED BY RPA AND RCD-G, RWANDA INTERPRETATION IS THAT MONUC WILL REPLACE AND MONITOR THIS AREA
SECURITY CURTAIN
ISSUE OF TRACKING DOWN AND DISARMING ARMED GROUPS EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT IS BEYOND THE MANDATE OF MONUC.
RESPONSIBILITY OF DRC GOV IN CO-OPERATION WITH MONUC AND JMC IN TERRITORY UNDER DRC CONTROL. MOST FORCES DEPLOYED IN AREAS OUTSIDE. RCD-G DENIED DRC GOVT IF NOT PART OF INTEGRATED DEFENCE FORCE.
SOUTH AFRICA AS PART OF THIRD PARTY TO IMPLEMENT, MONITOR AND VERIFY THE DEAL

7. PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD) SECRETARIAT ALREADY IN KINSHASA
ISSUE OF UN MANDATE, STILL UNCHANGED
TIME SCALES ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, RATHER A SEQUENTIAL PROCESS, EACH STEP WILL REQUIRE THE PRIOR COMPLETION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
DISARMING AND DISMANTLING OF INTERHAMWE AND EX-FAR ON D+10
DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL FORCE LEVELS BY D+15
WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS, BEGINNING ON D+45
THE CAPACITY OF MONUC, NEEDS 4 TASK FORCES TO EXECUTE PHASE 3
PRESIDENT MBEKI PLANS TO GET THE POLITICAL PROCESS GOING IN THE DRC

8. CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION

9. MONUC DEPLOYMENT

11. REBEL DEPLOYMENT

12. REBEL GROUPS STRENGTH RCD-GOMA: 15 000 MLC: 10 000 RCD-K-ML: 2 000
RCD - N: 3 000

13. FOREIGN FORCES DEPLOYMENT

15. MILITARY ACTIVITIES 17 TO 29 AUG 2002
SECTOR 1
MLC TROOPS MOVED FROM BASAKUSU TO ISIRO BY ANTONOV
SECTOR 2
LOW LEVEL AIRDROP OF AK 47 AND AMMO IN THE MANDRO AREA(15 KM EAST OF BUNIA) FROM BURUNDI
14 AUG 16 CIVILANS AND 6 SOLDIERS WERE KILLED AT BOGORO(25 KMS SW OF BUNIA
UPC MILITIA CAPTURE A VILLAGE 60 KMS SW OF BUNIA

16. CONT
SECTOR 3
SHOOTING INCIDENTS IN BUKAVU, NORTH OF FIZI, PEPA AND PWETO
LOW LEVEL MAI-MAI VIOLENCE NEAR KINDU, 13 MAI-MAI WERE KILLED IN CLASHES WITH RPA 40 KM FROM KINDU ON KALEMI ROAD
20 AUG SHOOTING CONTINUE ALL DAY LONG FROM THE OUTSKIRTS OF KINDU, RCD-G REINFORCED KINDU WITH 2 BATTALIONS, ONE FROM GOMA AND ONE COMPOSITE BATTALION
RCD-N AND UPC(HEMA MILITIA) ALLIANCE COULD DESTABILISE THE EAST

17. CONT RCD – N VERSUS RCD – K/ML ZDF WITHDRAWL
RCD – N REINFORCED HEAVILY BY MLC PUSHED INTO ORIENTALE PROVINCE.
ON THE ISIRO MUNGBERE AXIS RCD – N RECAPTURED MUNGBERE WITH 1 X BN WITH THE INTENTION OF ADVANCING ON DURA
ON THE ISIRO –DUNGU ROAD, RCD – N HAS RETAKEN GANGA AND INTENDED TO CONTINUE TO FARADJE AND THEN LINK UP WITH THE TROOPS ON THE MUNGBERE AXIS
ON THE ISIRO – WAMBA AXIS RCD – N CONTROLLED WAMBA AND HAD ADVANCE TO BAYANGA IN THE DIRECTION OF NIA - NIA,
ZDF WITHDRAWL
15 AUG, D COY 13 SADC BN WITHDREW FROMILEBO TO KANANGA AND WAS REPLACED BT FAC
ON 19 AUG A COY FROM ILEBO JOINED THE KANANGA BN
ON 22 AUG 1st MECH BN WITHDREW FROM ZEWE AIRPORT TO MBUJI MAYI

18. CONT UPDF WITHDRAWL UPDF WITHDREW FROM BENI, 1 X BN, GABOLITE, 1 X PL
1 X BN STILL IN BUNIA ON UN REQUEST
RWANDAN MOVEMENT
TROOPS MOVET INTO ITURI PROVINCE
16 KM FROM LUBERO
1000 RPA TROOPS SEIZING KASUO, 30 KM FROM LUBERO

19. MONUC PHASE 3

20. GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF MONUC DDRRR PROGRAMME IN THE DRC
VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT
LINKS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE PEACE PROCESS
DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES
WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN ARMIES
INTER CONGOLESE DIALOGUE
COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES
COMMUNITY PROGRAMMES
COOPERATION WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS
TARGET AREA FOR DDRRR
EX FAR
INTERHAMWE
ALIR 1
ALIR 2

21. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS STAGE 1: TRANSITIONAL OPERATIONS.
DEPLOYMENT OF COMMAND AND CONTROL, LOGISTIC, ENGINEERING AND GUARD ASSETS TO KINDU
THEREAFTER THE DEPLOYMENT OF ‘TASK FORCE I’ TO KINDU FOR DEPLOYMENT INTO STAGE 1 AREA OF OPERATIONS, FORWARD HQ IN KINDU
FORCE NOT BIGGER THAN 2500
STAGE 2: ASSISTANCE TO THE D3 PROGRAMME.
DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE INITIAL DEPLOYMENT IN CREATING CONDITIONS OF CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY TO EMBARKING ON MEANINGFUL D3 ACTIVITY
SWIFT BUILD-UP OF TASK FORCES 2-4 IN STAGE 2 AREA OF OPERATIONS (NOT TO EXCEED 7000)
STAGE 3: SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS.
SITUATION NOT YET CLEAR ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SCOPE AND SCALE OF SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS BUT THESE WILL BE UNDERPINNED BY THE FOLLOWING KEY CONCEPTS
EXTENT OF ANY MONUC RESPONSIBILITY FOR MONITORING BORDER SECURITY
TO LINK KINDU WITH KISANGANI, LUMUBASI AND KALEMI

22. UPDATE ON PHASE 3 KISANGANI OFFICE DEPLOYED AND FULLY OPERATIONAL
DATABASE AND INITIAL PICTURE OF THE ARMED GROUP SETUP
RECCE IN KISANGANI AND KINDU PERFORMED
1ST INFORMATION CAMPAIGN PREPARED AND LAUNCHED
DDRRR DIVISION DEPLOYED
KISANGANI GUARD UNIT DEPLOYED
BROAD INFO CAMPAIGN STARTED
KINDU UNIT DEPLOYED
LOCATION OF DDRRR CAMPS IDENTIFIED

23. Main DDRRR headquarters
Assembly Areas
Priority
Presence of troops
Risk Assessment
Logistics
UAG to be Demobilised
Deployment
Remarks
Bukavu
1st
Low
Very good
ALiR, FNL, FDD, Mayi Mayi
1 Bat (-)
Kananga
1 Coy (+)
ALiR, WNBF, UNRF II, LRA
Kalemie
Good
ALiR, Mayi Mayi
1 Coy
Kamina
Medium
FDD
1,800 unarmed and screened ALiR troops already present
Goma
2nd
Kindu
Main DDRRR headquarters
Manono
FDD, Mayi Mayi
Boende
ALiR
Beni
ALiR, ADF, NALU, Mayi Mayi
Uvira
3rd
High
Lubumbashi
ALiR, FDD, Mayi Mayi
Kongolo
Mahagi
LRA
Gemena
UNITA
Isiro
4th
TBC
Alternative to Mahagi
Shabunda
Regular
Main UAG concentration area

24. MONUC AND THE PRETORIA DEAL
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MONUC STRUCTURE
MONUC PHASE 3 WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ACTIVITY
THE THIRD PARTY SECRETARIAT (SA AND UN) HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN KINSHASA
THE SECRETARIAT COORDINATION MECHANISM WITH MONUC HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED
SOUTH AFRICA WILL POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE FIRST TASK FORCE

25. CONCLUSION INTERLOCKING PROCESSES TO SUCCEED:
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL
THE EXECUTION OF MONUC PHASE 3
THE COMPLETION OF THE POLITICAL SOLUTION IN THE DRC
THE REGIONAL SUMMIT