1. Complexity and Cybernetics
Stuart A. Umpleby
Department of Management
The George Washington University
Washington, DC 20052

2. My background
At the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign I studied engineering, political science and communications
For my dissertation I worked with Heinz von Foerster and Ross Ashby in the Biological Computer Laboratory
I was president of the Am. Society for Cybernetics from 1980 to 1982

3. My purpose today
Presently I am president of the Executive Committee of the International Academy for Systems and Cybernetic Sciences, an honor society in the field (
Member Federations include the International Federation for Systems Research (IFSR), the World Organization for Systems and Cybernetics (WOSC) and the European Union for Systemics (EUS)

4. Including complexity
Although primarily an honor society the Academy is also a very effective organization for communicating among scholars in different countries and in different societies
The Academy would like to include some scholars from the field of complexity
I view systems science, cybernetics and complexity as neighboring fields with different interests, societies, and journals
Is there a society for complex systems?

5. Cybernetics and complexity
My goal at this conference is to learn as much as I can about complexity science and to arouse some interest in cybernetics.
I have very little time, so I shall describe two subjects of investigation in cybernetics that have policy implications
Based on these examples, I shall suggest how contemporary cybernetics is similar to and different from complexity research

6. Two examples of recent work in cybernetics
The first example will be work on expanding the conception of science in accord with the correspondence principle
The second example will be discussions the Academy has had with philosophers in Russia on developing a theory of self-regulating societies

7. Example I Expanding the conception of science

8. The origin of cybernetics
Some background will be helpful
The field of cybernetics emerged in the late 1940s during a series of conferences in New York City sponsored by the Josiah Macy Jr. Foundation
During World War II many scientists had worked on applied projects
They wanted to talk about what they had learned

9. The Macy Foundation conferences
Ten conferences between 1946 and 1953
Chaired by Warren McCulloch, a philosopher at MIT
Participants included G. Bateson, Margaret Mead, N. Wiener, J. von Neumann, H. von Foerster, R. Ashby
The original title was “Circular Causal and Feedback Mechanisms in Biological and Social Systems”
After Wiener’s book in 1948, the name of the conferences was changed to the Macy Conferences on Cybernetics
Cybernetics is the Greek work for governor

10. The motivation
In the 1940s many people were killed because they thought they were right and others were wrong
But can one be certain about what one believes?
McCulloch, Maturana, von Foerster and others wanted to understand cognition
They tested theories of knowledge using biological experiments
They concluded that observations independent of observers are not physically possible

11. A new location for cybernetics
McCulloch and Wiener, both at MIT, died in the 1960s
The center of cybernetics research then moved to the University of Illinois and von Foerster’s Biological Computer Laboratory

12. Heinz von Foerster

13. Including the observer
Building on the empirical work, Von Foerster sought to include the observer within science
Here is the key point: the prevailing conception of science is based on an assumption that was tested and proven false
The new view is widely accepted in Europe but not the US
In 1974 von Foerster invented the term “second order cybernetics” hoping to shift the focus of attention in cybernetics from technical applications to the study of cognition

14. First and second order cybernetics in the 1970s
Observed systems
The purpose of a model
Controlled systems
Interaction among variables in a system
Theories of social systems
Observing systems
The purpose of the modeler
Autonomous sys.
Interaction between observer and observed
Theories of the interaction between ideas and society

15. Efforts to make a scientific revolution
A group of people connected with BCL and ASC conducted tutorials about the history and fundamentals of cybernetics at conferences in the U.S. and Europe beginning in the late 1970s
Tutorials were necessary because of the lack of university courses and degree programs
We saw this work as making a scientific revolution
After giving tutorials for several years we wanted to move to a period of normal science
How does a scientific revolution end?

16. Kuhn’s description of a scientific revolution
Periods of normal science and periods of revolutionary science
Kuhn emphasized the transition from normal science to a revolutionary period due to “incommensurable definitions”
He said that a revolutionary period ended when the younger generation was persuaded to adopt the new point of view

17. The cybernetics of science
NORMAL SCIENCE
The correspondence Incommensurable
principle definitions
SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION

18. New philosophy of science
New philosophy of science
An Application of the Correspondence Principle
Old philosophy of science
Amount of attention paid to the observer

19. Niels Bohr

20. The Correspondence Principle
Proposed by Niels Bohr when developing the quantum theory
Any new theory should reduce to the old theory to which it corresponds for those cases in which the old theory is known to hold
Wladyslaw Krajewsky said the Correspondence Principle provides a way to understand the growth of science

21. Advantages of using the Correspondence Principle
One needs a new dimension which was previously not known or assumed not to be significant (e.g., relativity theory and the gas laws)
All the data that supported the old theory also supports the new theory (small circle)
Now many more experiments can be conducted to investigate the region created by the new dimension (large oval)

22. Stages in the development of cybernetics
Engineering cybernetics
Biological cybernetics
Social cybernetics
Philosophical cybernetics
A foundation for design

24. Strategies for advancing social science
For many decades social scientists have tried to imitate the physical sciences
Physics was regarded as an example of how to do science
More recently the idea is to expand science so the physical sciences become a special case of a larger view of science
The new view includes purposeful systems
Inanimate objects (physics) are a special case

25. From second order cybernetics to second order science
Philosophers of science usually place the scientist outside what is observed
Second order cybernetics claims that descriptions are constructed in the minds of scientists
It places a scientist inside the social system that is observed
These thoughts are bringing about a reconsideration of our conception of science

26. How to expand science
The Correspondence Principle suggests how to make a persuasive case that science has been expanded: add a new dimension or a new consideration
Three new additions can now be claimed
The first is von Foerster’s – the amount of attention paid to the observer
A second is the effect that a theory has on the system observed

27. A second new dimension
In the Newtonian view of the world scientific theories do not alter the world
Although quantum mechanics is unusual, physicists usually assume that theories do not change the way that nature works
But theories of social systems are constructed in the hope that the theories will guide actions that will change the way social systems operate
Hence, there is a dialogue between theories and societies

28. A third consideration
Currently in the U.S. there is growing interest in design thinking – the design of new products, new services, new apps
Government programs are also designed, evaluated and modified
New scientific ideas are also invented, advocated and accepted or not
How is design related to science?

29. The place of design in science
Popper’s notion of conjectures and refutations is a well-established conception in the philosophy of science
The emphasis is on empirically testing conjectures
But where do conjectures come from?
Perhaps design methods could be used

30. The importance of second order science
Expanding our conception of science opens new lines of investigation for research
Treating physics not as an example for all of science but rather as a special case of a larger conception of science will help the unification of the sciences
New possibilities for research in the social sciences will mean advances in the social sciences at a time when they are needed

31. Three models used in cybernetics
Regulation – the law of requisite variety, two elements, similar to game theory, amplification of management capability
Self-organization – a large number of elements whose behavior is governed by rules, three conferences , recent work is called complexity science
Reflexivity theory, both Lefebvre and Soros – two levels of analysis, autonomous actors observe, plan, act, observe…..

32. Some policy implications
Help American scientists understand and cooperate with more philosophically oriented European scientists
Contribute to quality improvement methods in science by developing methods of meta research
Shift the focus of social science research from studying interactions among variables to facilitating conversations

33. Part II My conception of third order cybernetics

34. An interpretation of third order cybernetics
Vladimir Lepskiy and his colleagues at the Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) are developing the idea of “third order cybernetics”
They describe three stages in the development of cybernetics in Russia – technical cybernetics, psychological cybernetics (second order, Lefebvre) and third order cybernetics (social systems)

35. Third order cybernetics
The “meta subject”, or the environment of the subject, can be thought of on three levels
At the micro level the meta subject would be the family or the work group
At the meso level the meta subject would be a company or a city
At the macro level the meta subject would be a country or the world

36. The micro level
The field of family therapy has been influenced by cybernetics
Key authors are Gregory Bateson, Paul Watzlawick, Don Jackson, Carlos Sluzki

37. The meso level
At the level of the firm or organization there are authors from cybernetics and systems science
Stafford Beer, Russell Ackoff, Peter Checkland, Mike Jackson, Richard Knowles

38. The Macro level
At the macro level to find the key authors one must go farther back in time
In the 17th century people were trying to figure out how to create self-governing societies
The task was to build a reflexive society, one in which people were both rulers and ruled
Eventually the goal became to go beyond both the king and the Pope and instead use political and legal institutions to set and enforce rules

39. Society as a reflexive system
The macro level is the most reflexive
There are many feedback loops in a large social system
There are many challenges – how to resolve internal conflicts, how to defend the society against interference from outside, how to create an innovative society and how to achieve steady social progress

40. Two approaches to the macro subject
The Russian scholars were citing as key authors of third order cybernetics recent and contemporary Russian philosophers
I believe that the key literature on the macro level is philosophical work from the early 17th century
The Russians may have missed this debate

41. Key steps at the macro level in Europe
Charlemagne was crowned Holy Roman Emperor by the Pope in 800, politics became answerable to religion
In 1215 the Magna Carta in England was the first agreement to limit the power of a king
Martin Luther (1483 – 1546) initiated the Protestant Reformation, thus limiting the power of the Pope
In the thirty years war (1618 – 1648) about 1/3 of the people in Europe were killed in wars between Protestants and Catholics

42. Peace of Westphalia
During the 30 years war many people moved from Europe to N. America to escape the religious conflicts
The Peace of Westphalia, that ended the 30 years war, supported the idea of religious freedom and largely created the conception of the nation state
Each country could choose its own religion
Each person could worship as he or she chose
Individuals and nations became self-governing

43. The problem was aristocracy
A political/ religious hierarchy was the idea that supported the aristocracy
There were two solutions
Sail to America and create a new society on the frontier
Think one’s way out of the box by inventing ideas like individual rights, a social contract, and majority rule and minority rights
Ideas developed in Europe were tested in communities in N. America

44. Leading theorists were
Thomas Hobbes (1588 – 1679) England
John Locke ( ) England
Voltaire (1694 – 1778) France
Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712 – 1778) France
Edmund Burke (1729 – 1797) Ireland

45. Two objectives of self-government
Assembling enough power to achieve social purposes
Limiting the power of the executive so that the rights of individuals are not compromised

46. Organizational structure
A federal system – local, state and national governments
Branches of government – legislative, executive, and judicial branches
The branches were independent and could check abuse of power by another branch
Other institutions – free press, business organizations, labor unions, non-governmental organizations

47. Principles of government
Majority rule and minority rights
Right to private property
Limited power of government, trial by jury, right to a lawyer
Religious liberty
Freedom of speech
Secular authority replaced religious authority
The state -- the citizenry as a whole -- could regulate both religion and the economy

48. A common point of view
During the Cold War there were two points of view – capitalism and communism
These ideologies gave meaning and purpose to life and provided organizing principles
An alternative, more general point of view is what Karl Popper called “piecemeal social engineering” and what Donald T. Campbell called an “experimenting society”

49. Some policy implications
The topic of third order cybernetics offers a non-ideological way of comparing and improving social systems
It opens the door to conversations about the historical reasons for the development of particular institutions in the West

50. A Comparison of Cybernetics and Complexity
Origin of the field
Macy Conferences,
1980s, Santa-Fe Institute
Definition of field
Control and communication in animal, machine and social systems; a science of purposeful
systems
Behaviors that arise when many agents interact and adapt to one another and their environments, often leading to emergence
Key authors
W. McCulloch, N. Wiener, H. von Foerster, M. Mead, G. Bateson, H. Maturana
M. Gell-Mann, G. West, R. Axtell, B. Arthur, J. Holland, S. Kauffman, S. Wolfram

51. A Comparison of Cybernetics and Complexity, Continued
Purpose
Create a science of perception, regulation, adaptation, purposeful behavior and understanding
Reveal the unseen mechanisms and processes that shape evolving worlds
Methods
Methods from any discipline
Rigorous logical, mathematical, computational methods
A key question
How does the brain understand itself? How can we create self-governing societies?
How do order and novelty emerge in the world?
How science advances
Add a new dimension
Find common patterns

52. A Comparison of Cybernetics and Complexity, Continued
Internal mechanisms
Reflexivity operates on two levels – observing and participating
Complexity involves two processes: creating new variety and selecting appropriate variety
Locus of contribution
Extensions of philosophy
Extensions of mathematics

53. Contact information
Stuart A. Umpleby Department of Management The George Washington University Washington, DC USA blogs.gwu.edu/umpleby

54. Prepared for a meeting on
Complexity and Policy Studies at
George Mason University
Arlington, VA
20 April 2018