1. Transportation: a weak link in NB's economic development? Yves Bourgeois, Ph.D. Director, Urban and community studies institute, UNB Assistant professor, economics, UNBSJ 1. What is regional economic development ? 2. Transportation and RED 1. …as an economic sector 2. …as enabling infrastructure 3. Questions 1

2. 1. What is regional development ? 1. THEORY Intellectual discipline studying how varying spatial configurations produce regionally differentiated outcomes (GDP/income, jobs/unemployment) 2. PRAXIS Belief that by changing these spatial configurations (labour, capital, formal/informal institutions) regions can proactively enhance growth or mitigate negatives (unemployment, poverty etc) In economics, we can focus on questions of production (growth, factor endowments, +) or distribution (equity, unemployment, poverty, +) 2 Growing the economic pie or better sharing it ?

3. Regional economic development (RED) is an intersection between economics (production is grounded), planning (decisions/history matter) and geography (all activity is inherently spatial) 3 Economics Industr org Public finance Trade Spatial Planning Regional Community Transportation REDGeography Economic Physical Political

4. 1.1 RED sample of debates 1. Convergence vs divergence World flat (Friedman) or spiky (Florida) ? ex. Geppert et al (2005) convergence between EU countries but divergence within 2. Local buzz vs global pipelines Locally clustered firms > globally connected? 3. Why growth concentrating despite ICT Some cities do better job @ attracting talent Amenities (Flordia, Glaeser) Some …better institutions (Scott, Storper) Some have better infrastructure 4

5. 1.2 Sources of economic growth 1. Labour More workers increase output (GDP)… Natural increases (incentives, subsidized daycare) Immigration (laws, intl gateways, accredit.) ** Integration (skills match, transpo, daycare) …but do not increase general standard of living ($/cap) 2. Capital Equipping worker with machine increases output/hr productivity gain = growth of GDP and $/capita Transpo costs moving capital inputs competitive Financial capital mediated by space / transpo (VC) 5

6. 3. Technological change Better mousetraps/tractors/computers productivity (GDP/hr), GDP + per capita income Proximity to labs (R&D) and especially customers, suppliers, competitors and consultants 4. Trade relative differences in factor productivity impels regions to specialize, increasing output/hr, and offering the opportunity to trade surpluses …provided transpo costs > gains from D.o.L. In sum, transportation is the keyhole through which we move people, goods, services and ideas. In some case, production factors are substituted… Fishworkers instead of robots in electronics Robots instead of tradespeople in plastics...with varying impacts on employment and productivity In other cases transpo costs (time as well as accounting costs) and our competitiveness is undermined. 6

7. 2. Transportation and RED 1. Transpo and distribution outcomes Spatial mismatch Are jobs accessible to low-income workers? Ex. increased disposable income disparities if commuting costs to job sites are higher Unemployment / Underemployment among low income, immigrants, women Sprawl Are road users footing true cost of building and maintaining hwy/street infrastructure? If taxpayers subsidize (social > private costs) too high pollution for all, residential segregation etc Mass, shared transit to improve access 7

8. 2. Transpo and production outcomes Transportation as an economic driver Moncton as the Hub City, SJ becoming Transpo Hub according to TG 2.0 strategy Rotterdam port, Amsterdam airport, Denver Transportation as enabling infrastructure Moving resources, both physical (natural, parts/equipment, semi- /finished manufactured goods) and people (labour, financiers, service providers) Moving them according to economic activity streets, bike lanes, sidewalks for commuters, streets for bankers, airports for VCs Moving them competitively airport for time-sensitive KIBS, mfg, perishable trains/ports for long haul, bulk highways and streets for Moving ideas (embedded knowledge) Intermodality and economies of scope 8

9. 9 Air flight patterns, Aaron Koblin, Google Labs, Published by BusinessWeek

10. 2.1 Transportation as an economic driver 10 Employment in Transportation industries has decline slightly over past 20 years across Canada Transportation-related jobs have been more concentrated in NB than average, particularly in resource-dependent regions, but have also been declining faster

11. Shift-share analysis, NB economic regions, 2006-2011 NB Cam-Mir Mon-Ric SJ-SS Fre-Oro Woo-Edm StatCan LFS and SEPH Δ emplNS IMRS Δ emplNSIMRS Δ emplNSIMRS Δ emplNSIMRS Δ emplNSIMRS Δ emplNSIMRS Total employed, all industries1.7369.40.0-17.4-6.671.20.0-10.30.1 101. 90.01.10.186.60.00.40.067.30.0-1.4-0.142.50.0-7.2 Agriculture6.4-1.3-0.300.5-0.10.10.00.9-0.20.1 1.6-0.30.3 -0.32.4-0.4-0.3 Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas0.710.10.20.6-0.14.3-0.2-0.1-0.32.1-0.1-0.51.11.6-0.11.6-0.31.20.0-0.30.00.90.0 Utilities1.13.40.90.6-0.10.70.1-0.2 1.10.90.10.90.11.30.1-0.1 Construction7.421.86.33.61.33.80.50.60.55.90.71.90.55.60.71.50.23.90.5-0.10.02.60.3-0.5 Manufacturing-4.538.4-6.51.5-1.77.1-1.5-0.60.19.3-1.92.20.09.8-2.01.4-0.13.6-0.70.2-0.48.6-1.8-1.7 Trade-2.659.5-5.7-3.8-0.611.1-0.4-0.8-0.119.3-0.6-1.80.013.3-0.40.30.09.7-0.3-0.5-0.16.0-0.2-0.8 Transportation and warehousing-2.320.9-3.4-3.5-0.22.40.0-0.3-0.17.60.0-0.14.50.0-0.6-0.12.80.0-0.4-0.33.50.0-1.2 Transportation and warehousing 17.0-0.3-2.8 Truck transportation 6.60.6-1.5 General freight trucking 3.9-0.3-0.2 Specialized freight trucking 2.7-0.50.1 Support activities for road transportation 1.7-0.20.0 Couriers 0.70.00.1 Warehousing and storage 1.40.0-0.6 Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing1.216.80.30.4-0.82.80.0-0.90.15.80.00.30.23.80.00.50.32.70.00.6-0.11.70.0-0.2 Professional, scientific and technical services1.715.00.9-1.30.31.70.20.00.33.80.60.30.14.10.6-0.40.04.40.70.10.80.1-0.1 Business, building and other support services-4.322.5-5.5-4.1-1.23.4-0.2-1.2-0.17.3-0.4-0.7-0.26.6-0.4-1.3-0.24.1-0.2-0.9-0.11.1-0.1 Educational services-1.528.3-3.0 0.14.90.0-0.20.06.60.0-0.4-0.36.50.0-1.90.26.70.00.7-0.33.50.0-1.3 Health care and social assistance5.247.72.7-2.7012.41.4-2.10.211.51.30.50.110.91.2-1.10.27.60.9-0.20.25.20.60.2 Information, culture and recreation0.911.90.3 -0.31.70.0-0.40.04.60.0-0.10.03.40.0-0.30.31.80.00.41.20.50.00.6 Accommodation and food services-3.125.9-4.4-5.0-1.15.20.1-1.50.07.30.2-0.80.05.90.1-0.5-0.35.60.1-1.9-0.12.10.0-0.4 Other services-1.818.1-2.7-3.2-1.54.30.1-1.8-0.14.40.1-0.80.04.00.1-0.20.03.70.1-0.40.11.70.0 Public administration4.722.73.51.2-0.84.90.5-1.60.45.40.61.30.33.80.40.30.47.00.71.40.01.70.2-0.3 11

12. Shift-share analysis is a regional economics tool to break down what explains employment growth or decline in a sector National share: how many jobs would be created/lost if the industry followed the overall national employment trend Industry mix: jobs owing to national industry trend Regional share: jobs owing to regions competitive advantages Shift-share analysis on previous slide reveals Transportation jobs contracted in all economic regions of the province (2006-2011), and this despite jobs growing within transportation industries across Canada The most sizeable job loss was in Greater Moncton (Hub City) followed by SJ 12

13. There is considerable spread in average hourly wages between transportation subsectors (StatCan, SEPH, 2008) Air traffic support services ($43/hr) Sea and rail ($36/hr) Urban mass transit ($33/hr) Air transportation ($32/hr) Road transportation support ($25/hr) Trucking ($23/hr) Interurbain bus service ($23/hr) Courrier ($22/hr) Warehousing ($22/hr). 13

14. Summary Not much evidence for emerging SJ transportation cluster and Hub City shedding jobs even faster Silver lining = If NB is shedding jobs in transpo sector, it is mainly in low-wage trucking and warehousing Unanswered question is whether job losses owe to implementing more efficient technologies, which may help sustain industry,… …changes in distribution networks (ex box stores, online sales, etc) … or declining regional competitive advantages With 3.7% of Canadian workers (4.3% in NB) employed in transportation, it is important but can only do so much as an individual sector to drive growth. Opportunities to leverage higher-paying port, rail However, the bigger task at hand is understanding how transportation is the critical infrastructure sustaining the other 96.3% jobs 14

15. 2.2 Transportation as enabling infrastructure 15 Transportation infrastructure can enable or hinder the flow of workers, goods, services and ideas Transportation costs, whether out-of-pocket or opportunity (time) costs, increases total costs to businesses and undermines competitiveness

16. 2.2.1 Moving workers New Brunswick is inefficient at moving people. In Moncton, Fredericton and Saint John, 85-90% of workers go to work by car, compared to Halifax (76%), Toronto (71%) and Montreal (56%). NBers have the third highest car ownership rate in Canada with HH owning 1.55 vehicles on average, compared to the Canadian average of 1.47, and following only Alberta (1.87) and Saskatchewan (1.79). Cost of car ownership not typically factored in CoL indices. Common front for social justice argued the motor fuel tax should fall to help low-income earners afford commuting, especially from rural communities. 16

17. New Brunswickers put on average 16,118km per vehicle compared to 15,366km for Canada (Natural Resources Canada, Canadian vehicle survey 2009). NBers produce 9.4% more CO2 from private vehicle operation than the Canadian average (StatCan, Env Accounts & Statistics Division, 2009). Transpo = 27% GHG, 2/3 road. 40% of Monctons downtown surface is parking (Downtown Moncton inc) 2.8% of Greater Monctonians use public transit, compared to Canadian average of 11%, Halifax (11.9%), Toronto (22.2%) or Montreal (32.6%). 17 Not paying true social costs skewing investments towards individual rides Making shared transportation unattractive to middle income earners, limiting access to work (and play) and increasing commuting costs participation

18. 2.2.2 Moving goods 18 Top 25 exports by HS2 codes (2011) ($1000 Cdn) NBQue 27 - Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, Bituminous Substances and Mineral Waxes10688996.8076 - Aluminum and Articles Thereof7172960.53 03 - Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and Other Aquatic Invertebrates648674.8088 - Aircrafts and Spacecrafts6445340.38 47 - Pulp of Wood and The Like; Waste and Scrap of Paper or Paperboard587780.5284 - Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances5696133.23 48 - Paper, Paperboard and Articles Made From These Materials558080.2748 - Paper, Paperboard and Articles Made From These Materials4808008.75 44 - Wood and Articles of Wood (Incl. Wood Charcoal)367314.4427 - Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, Bituminous Substances and Mineral Waxes3530309.52 31 - Fertilizers319912.2785 - Electrical or Electronic Machinery and Equipment2873929.40 20 - Preparations of Vegetables, Fruit, Nuts or Other Parts of Plants304569.0926 - Ores, Slag and Ash2447381.73 16 - Meat, Fish and Seafood Preparations171773.6174 - Copper and Articles Thereof2422253.51 78 - Lead and Articles Thereof169829.4387 - Motor Vehicles, Trailers, Bicycles, Motorcycles and Other Similar Vehicles2250096.14 26 - Ores, Slag and Ash157451.6939 - Plastics and Articles Thereof1793827.33 72 - Iron and Steel101170.1472 - Iron and Steel1684099.06 07 - Edible Vegetables and Certain Roots and Tubers67710.1702 - Meat and Edible Meat Offal1567309.63 95 - Toys, Games, Sporting Goods and Other Goods for Amusement66158.9244 - Wood and Articles of Wood (Incl. Wood Charcoal)1559449.47 87 - Motor Vehicles, Trailers, Bicycles, Motorcycles and Other Similar Vehicles64843.5471 - Pearls, Precious Stones or Metals, Coins and Jewellery1366686.38 84 - Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances61688.9490 - Optical, Medical, Photographic, Scientific and Technical Instrumentation1122658.35 22 - Beverages, Spirits and Vinegar51139.6530 - Pharmaceutical Products933567.13 28 - Inorganic Chemicals and Compounds of Precious Metals and Radioactive Elements47688.5347 - Pulp of Wood and The Like; Waste and Scrap of Paper or Paperboard907254.99 39 - Plastics and Articles Thereof42560.2640 - Rubber and Articles Thereof888524.57 06 - Live Trees and Other Plants (Incl. Cut Flowers and Ornamental Foliage)29535.08 94 - Furniture, and Stuffed Furnishings; Lamps and Illuminated Signs; Prefabricated Buildings873558.68 94 - Furniture, and Stuffed Furnishings; Lamps and Illuminated Signs; Prefabricated Buildings23907.1928 - Inorganic Chemicals and Compounds of Precious Metals and Radioactive Elements795438.14 92 - Musical Instruments22611.1273 - Articles of Iron or Steel788020.85 68 - Articles of Stone, Plaster, Cement, Asbestos, Mica or Similar Materials22444.6912 - Oil Seeds, Oleaginous Fruits, Industrial or Medicinal Plants, Straw and Fodder617806.76 23 - Residues and Waste from the Food Industries, and Prepared Animal Fodder21923.6918 - Cocoa and Cocoa Preparations535381.44 85 - Electrical or Electronic Machinery and Equipment20133.9195 - Toys, Games, Sporting Goods and Other Goods for Amusement500874.21 73 - Articles of Iron or Steel16943.4538 - Miscellaneous Chemical Products490137.25 Sub-total14634842.20Sub-total54071007.42 Others182542.34Others9529084.24 Total (All Products)14817384.54Total (All Products)63600091.66 Exports of NBs top 25 exports, top 12 are resources or mfg goods with minimal transform In Que, 5 of top 9 are high VA (ex. aerospace, electronics, optics, biopharm)

19. On trucks and trains You cant unload a train at a grocery store -- NB trucking company owner protesting proposed carbon tax Perhaps, but do we need trucks for long haul, and what about intermodality to optimize ? Trucks have lower terminal costs (loading), more flexibility in scheduling and routes Trains are more efficient for large tonnage, using less fuel (scale, friction, deceleration, idling) and fewer workers Trains also cost less in non-market costs accidents, spills, congestion Optimal shipping strategy? Varies by industry, by company, even on day of the week Intermodality Difficult to ascertain substitutability of modes 19

20. 20 Example of cost differentials between truck and rail Rail more efficient if large tonnage, even over shorter distances, although http://www.columbiarivercrossing.org/FileLibrary/Memorandums/FeasibilityofDivertingTruckFreighttoRail.pdf

21. We often assume exports are limited to tangible goods, but increasingly services Ex. Professional, scientific and technical services, including engineering in Fredericton Financial services, such as VC for IT (1hr rule) Some NB IT companies have exit strategies when they ready to scale up to NA/global or need $1M+ VC Other polycentric regions (ex. Northern Egland) have been able to develop external VC networks, but depend on cheap, well-connected air travel …serious impediments in NB $ YYZ-LAX < $ YYZ-YFC > 1hr Limited connectivity 21 2.2.3 Moving services

22. 22 Global trends Global Business Strategy and Innovation: A Canadian Logistics Perspective Highlights and Key Findings leverage global value chains. continental logistics strategies long-term initiatives with dedicated facilities, personnel, processes and technologies. Investment in DCs in Canada has increased by 106 percent over the past five years (mainly in Ontario, Alberta, Quebec and British Columbia). Small and medium-sized firms are investing in DCs to better respond to customer mandates and to integrate further into global value chains. to invest in logistics network strategies such as capability to electronically collaborate with networks of key suppliers and customers and supply chain modelling applications. Bourgeois (2013) Many NB transpo firms aware but unable to capture IT and logistics expertise

23. Ten questions/topics for exploration 1. How are transportation companies become logistic co. ? 2. How are changing trade patterns and technologies altering distribution activities across key NB sectors ? 3. Measuring impact of transportation costs on NB industries competitiveness 4. Mode substitutability and intermodality in NB 5. Not knowing what you dont know. Light rail vs highway expansion difficult to debate because outside NB policy realm. 6. Feasibility of pooling infrastructure (regional airport) or services (local airport specialization) 7. Impact of transportation on workforce integration. 8. Assessing impact of structural, regulatory changes (EI reforms, land use planning) and energy prices on employment and commuting patterns 9. Energy projects (shale gas, oil pipeline) impact on road building, maintenance, safety 10. Full social accounting on current transportation investments and usage (links with air quality, obesity) transit SROI 23