1. Washington and the Test-Ban:
Technical Opportunities for the Next Administration
Stephen Herzog, Yale University
Center for Strategic and International Studies
December 6, 2016

2. Introduction
Not a policy case for or against Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
There is a persuasive technical case for effectively verifiable nature of CTBT, but still ways to improve explosion monitoring
Presentation highlights technical initiatives Trump administration should promote to enhance appeal of norm against nuclear explosive testing and strength of global nuclear explosion monitoring community

3. Improving Data Collection
Policy 1: Completing the International Monitoring System (IMS)

4. Improving Data Collection
Policy 2: Concluding a Facility Agreement
Integral to long-term success of the IMS
45 of 89 IMS host countries have signed, 38 have entered into force
Policy 3: Breaking Ground on Cooperating National Facilities (CNFs)
Extremely difficult to increase or alter IMS station locations specified in Annex 1 to CTBT Protocol
Treaty provision could create de facto auxiliary IMS stations, particularly in areas of concern

5. Expanding Data Analysis
Policy 1: Increasing National Data Centers (NDCs)
Backbone of national capabilities to technically assess IMS and national network data
Informs policy decisions about testing occurrence
129 of 183 States Signatories established NDC
Policy 2: Broadening the International Data Center (IDC) Secure Web Portal User Base
Allows States Signatories to access IMS data and compiled IDC data products
137 of 183 States Signatories have users

6. Civil and Scientific Outreach
Policy 1: Recognizing Non-Universal Interest in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring
CTBT monitoring not always a priority for states
Other IMS data uses: seismic hazard mapping, tsunami warning, volcanic activity monitoring, etc.
Policy 2: Engaging Academic and Industry Collaborators
IMS data access generally excludes non-states
Archived (not real-time) data on a time-lag could be useful for range of civil and scientific activities

7. Policy Implications
Focus on CTBT ratification and entry into force should not completely overshadow ways to improve already strong global monitoring
Bottom-up scientific initiatives discussed here will familiarize Annex 2 holdouts and other non-parties with the CTBT and its broad benefits
Deciding that a nuclear explosive test has occurred is a political decision, but should be informed by the best science and involved states