1. Implications, adaptations & policies

2. Based on…..

3. Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

4. Economic development

5. Outline Revisit changes in tuna distribution Framework for adaptations
Win-win adaptations
Supporting policies

6. Skipjack projection Cook Islands ~ 10% Cook Islands ~ 15%
Source: Bell et al. 2013

7. Adaptation decision framework
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss
Long-term Gain
Lose-Lose X
Lose-Win
Win-Win x
Near-term Loss
Addresses present drivers
Win-Lose
Near-term Gain
After Grafton (2010)

8. ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Cap and trade provisions of VDS enable all PNA members to receive some benefits during ENSO events, regardless of where tuna are concentrated
La Niña
Ask
El Niño
Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1997)

9. ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Allocation of vessel days is adjusted regularly
Ask
2050 S
2100
Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)

10. Adaptations Immediate conservation measures for tuna
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Immediate conservation measures for tuna
Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and preventing overfishing of other tuna, will:
maintain stocks at healthy levels
make these valuable species more resilient to climate change
Bigeye tuna

11. Other adaptations
Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in the cyclone belt
Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent inundation by rising sea levels and more severe cyclones

12. Suggested supporting policies
Promote access agreements that are clear for all stakeholders
Include implications of climate change in management objectives of WCPFC
Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort data to improve tuna models
Develop further measures to reduce capture of bigeye tuna by purse-seine
Develop tuna products and distribution channels that minimise CO2 emissions

13. Food security

14. Outline Win-win adaptations Supporting policies
Factors affecting availability of fish for food
Reef area, ciguatera, climate change
Implications for food security
Win-win adaptations
Supporting policies

15. Contributions of fish to food security
Cook Islands
Rarotonga
Outer islands
25 kg
60 kg
There are other sources of protein, but need to consider protein consumption . Household income expenditure survey
35 kg per person per year recommended for good nutrition

16. Fish needed User group Population Fish consumption Fish needed
(tonnes)
Rarotonga
13,000
35 kg/year
455
Tourists (p.a.)
120,000
1 kg
120
Other islands
3,000
60 kg/year
180
Total

17. Potential coastal fish production
Location
Reef area (km2)
Sustainable yield*
Rarotonga
~22
~65 tonnes/year
Outer islands
645
>1900 tonnes/year X
* Based on 3 tonnes per km2 per year
Ciguatera

18. Sources of fish for Rarotonga and tourists
Reef fish from outer islands
Large pelagic fish from tuna vessels and local fishers
Photo: Marc Taquet

19. Sources of fish

20. Effects of climate change on fish supply
2035 (-2 to -5%)
(-20%)
2100 (-20 to -50%)
Today

21. Effects of climate change on supply
Ciguatera
Dead coral & seaweed surfaces
Nutrients
Water temperature
From land-based activities and sewage

22. Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Incentives for longline vessels to deliver fish to Rarotonga

23. Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Increase access to tuna with anchored inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

24. Adaptations Improve post-harvest methods L-W W-W L-L W-L
Solar fruit dryer... Example
Photo: Jocelyn Carlin

25. Adaptations Sustain production of coral reef fish
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Sustain production of coral reef fish
Maintaining spawning adults will help ensure replenishment and build resilience of key species
Photo: Eric Clua

26. Adaptations Reduce and diversify catches of demersal fish
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Greater focus on herbivorous fish

27. Adaptations Reduce risk of ciguatera with good reef management
Avoid sending poisoned fish to Rarotonga

28. Adaptations Manage catchment vegetation and minimise nutrient runoff
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Manage catchment vegetation and minimise nutrient runoff
Improves resilience of coral reefs

29. Adaptations Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species ? L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species ?
Photo: Nathalie Behring

30. Adaptations
Aquaponics with Nile tilapia

31. Suggested supporting policies
Include FADs as part of the national infrastructure for food security
Use licensing conditions to ensure delivery of fish from longline vessels to Rarotonga
Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to reef fish stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment
Promote freshwater aquaculture
Strengthen governance of agriculture and tourist development to safeguard coral reefs and water quality

32. Livelihoods

33. Outline Adaptations Trends in pearl production
Effects of climate change
Adaptations

34. The challenge
Value $

35. Potential impacts on pearl farming
Poorer survival of spat due to ocean acidification
Reduced pearl quality because nacre is composed of aragonite
Effects of warmer water on nacre quality
Problems due to more intense cyclones and increased stratification (e.g. deoxygenation)
BUT rise in sea level may improve flushing of lagoons
Photo: Leanne Hunter

36. Adaptations Use online forecasts
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Online portal to deliver seasonal forecasts for the Western Pacific under development
Advance warning of potential extreme temperature events

37. Adaptations
Selective breeding to resist effects of ocean acidification

38. Adaptations
Improved monitoring to identify best sites

39. Adaptations Grow pearls at greater depth for final nacre
Photo: Leanne Hunter

40. Suggested supporting policies
Specify maximum oyster density and minimum distance between farms
Set minimum quality standards of pearls
Invest in environmental monitoring programmes
Seek development partners for hatchery and selective breeding of pearl oysters

41. Conclusions
Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities
Supporting policies and investments are needed
Integrate adaptations and policies into national strategies and action plans for climate change