1. Going Up for the Rebound
On Behalf of:
ABC – Alabama
Anirban Basu, Chief Economist, ABC
April 30, 2013

2. First Pitch

3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*
* data are projections
Source: International Monetary Fund

4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund

5. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth
Rank
Exchange
Index
% Change 1
NYSE Group
DJI A
5.5% 2
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
-1.8% 3
London SE
FTSE 100
-5.6% 12
Swiss Exchange
Swiss Market
-7.8% 9
TSX Group
S&P TSX Composite
-9.2% 8
Bolsa De Medrid
IGBM
-14.6% 6
Frankfurt SE
DAX
-14.7% 5
Euronext
CAC 40
-17.0% 4
Tokyo SE
Nikkei 225
-17.3% 11
Hong Kong Exchanges
Hang Seng Index
-20.0% 7
Shanghai SE
Shanghai Composite
-21.7% 10
Borsa Italiana
FTSE MIB
-25.2%
Source: Yahoo! Finance

6. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth
Rank
Exchange
Index
% Change 6
Frankfurt SE
DAX
29.1% 11
Hong Kong Exchanges
Hang Seng Index
22.9% 4
Tokyo SE
Nikkei 225 2
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
15.9% 5
Euronext
CAC 40
15.2% 12
Swiss Exchange
Swiss Market
14.9% 10
Borsa Italiana
FTSE MIB
7.8% 1
NYSE Group
DJI A
7.3% 3
London SE
FTSE 100
5.8% 9
TSX Group
S&P TSX Composite
4.0% 7
Shanghai SE
Shanghai Composite
3.2% 8
Bolsa De Madrid
IBEX 35
-4.7%
Source: Yahoo! Finance

7. S&P Select Sector Performance 2012
Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s
Source: Dow Jones; Standard & Poor’s

8. Fourth Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share
Symbol
4Q 2011
4Q 2012 Estimated
4Q 2012 Reported
Surprise
BTU
$0.98
$0.25
$0.36
$0.11
XRX
$0.33
$0.29
$0.30
$0.01
FCX
$0.67
$0.70
$0.78
$0.08 GE
$0.39
$0.43
$0.44
AMD
$0.12
-$0.20
-$0.14
$0.06
MSFT
$0.75
$0.76
MCD
$1.33
$1.38
$0.05
MMM
$1.35
$1.41
$0.00
YHOO
$0.28
$0.32
$0.04
CMG
$1.81
$1.96
$1.95
-$0.01
VFC
$2.32
$3.03
$3.07
DOW
$0.34
STI
$0.61
$0.65
COH
$1.18
$1.28
$1.23
-$0.05 DD
$0.35
$0.07 VZ
$0.52
$0.50
$0.45
TXN
$0.02
UPS
$1.32
-$0.06
UTX
$1.47
$1.03
$1.04
COF
$0.88
$1.58
-$0.17
HON
$1.05
$1.09
$1.10
CAT
$1.69
$1.46
-$0.23
Source: Dow Jones; Standard & Poor’s

9. Red Card/ Pink Slip

10. Recession Watch as of April 2013
Source: Moody’s Economy

11. Industrial Production January 2001 through March 2013
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

12. Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q1
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

13. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through March 2013
Mar. 13: K
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector March 2013 v. March 2012
All told 1,910K Jobs gained
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. National Construction Employment Monthly Net Change January 2002 through March 2013
Industry Sector
Mar-13
Feb-13
Mar-12
1-net
12-net
12-%
Construction
5802
5784
5640 18
162
2.9%
Residential Building
578.1
575.8
573.2
2.3
4.9
0.9%
Nonresidential Building
682.1
681.1
661.0
1.0
21.1
3.2%
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
890.1
898.9
866.4
-8.8
23.7
2.7%
Specialty Trade Contractors
3651.6
3628.3
3539.1
23.3
112.5
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.4%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) March 2013 v. March 2012 Percent Change
Rank
State % 1
North Dakota
4.4 18
Maryland
1.5 33
Kentucky
0.7 2
Utah
4.2 19
New Jersey
1.4 36
Illinois
0.6 3
Texas
3.1
Oregon 37
Nebraska
0.5 4
Colorado
2.6 21
Louisiana
1.3
Wisconsin 5
Idaho
2.4
Mississippi 39
Arkansas
0.4 6
California
2.0 23
Delaware
1.2 40
Alabama
0.3 7
Florida
1.9
Massachusetts
Alaska
Georgia
Oklahoma
Missouri
North Carolina
South Carolina
New Mexico
Washington 27
New Hampshire
1.1 44
District of Columbia
0.2 11
Arizona
1.8 28
Indiana
1.0
Rhode Island
Montana
New York 46
Connecticut
0.1 13
Minnesota
1.7 30
Michigan
0.8
Maine
Nevada
Vermont
Ohio
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia 16
Hawaii
1.6
Iowa
Wyoming
South Dakota
Kansas 51
Pennsylvania
-0.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.4%

17. State-by-state Growth in Construction Jobs March 2013 v. March 2012
Year-over-year Ch. (‘000)
California
41.0
South Carolina
1.8
Vermont
-0.5
Texas
39.8
Connecticut
1.7
Kentucky
-0.6
New York
13.2
Massachusetts
1.6
Iowa
-0.8
Louisiana
10.7
Wyoming
Missouri
Florida
8.5
Nevada
1.5
West Virginia
-0.9
Arizona
8.3
Maine
1.0
Rhode Island
-1.6
Maryland*
7.7
Wisconsin
South Dakota*
-1.7
Utah
6.0
New Jersey
0.7
Kansas
-1.8
Colorado
5.5
New Mexico
Montana
-1.9
Oklahoma
3.6
Tennessee*
Pennsylvania
-2.4
Georgia
3.5
Virginia
Arkansas
-2.7
Washington
3.3
Idaho
0.6
Alabama
-3.0
Hawaii*
3.1
District of Columbia*
0.5
Indiana
-3.1
Alaska
1.9
New Hampshire
Michigan
-4.0
North Dakota
Delaware*
0.3
North Carolina
-5.3
Minnesota
Nebraska*
-0.1
Illinois
-8.5
Oregon
Mississippi
-0.4
Ohio
-9.5
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.

18. Alabama Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) March 2013 v
Alabama Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) March 2013 v. March 2012 Absolute Change
AL Total: +4.9K; +0.3%
US Total (SA): +1,910K; +1.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Birmingham-Hoover MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) March 2013 v. March 2012 Absolute Change
Birmingham Total: +0.7K; +0.1%
AL Total (SA): +4.9K; +0.3%
US Total (SA): +1,910K; +1.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Huntsville MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) March 2013 v. March 2012 Absolute Change
Huntsville Total: -0.6K; -0.3%
CO Total (SA): +4.9K; +0.3%
US Total (SA): +1,910K; +1.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21. Alabama Construction Employment Breakdown January 2007 through March 2013
Source: BLS
Percentages in parentheses reflect the share of total industry employment.

22. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) March 2013
Rank
State
Rate 1
North Dakota
3.3 18
Massachusetts
6.4 33
Tennessee
7.9 2
Nebraska
3.8
Texas 36
Connecticut
8.0 3
Vermont
4.1 20
Maryland
6.6
Kentucky 4
South Dakota
4.3 21
Missouri
6.7 38
New York
8.2 5
Iowa
4.9 22
New Mexico
6.9
Oregon
Utah 23
West Virginia
7.0 40
Georgia
8.4
Wyoming 24
Colorado
7.1
South Carolina 8
Oklahoma
5.0
Maine 42
District of Columbia
8.5 9
Hawaii
5.1
Ohio
Michigan 10
Virginia
5.3
Wisconsin 44
Indiana
8.7 11
Minnesota
5.4 28
Alabama
7.2 45
New Jersey
9.0 12
Kansas
5.6
Arkansas 46
Rhode Island
9.1
Montana 30
Delaware
7.3 47
North Carolina
9.2 14
New Hampshire
5.7
Washington 48
California
9.4 15
Alaska
6.2 32
Florida
7.5
Mississippi
Idaho
Arizona 50
Illinois
9.5
Louisiana
Pennsylvania 51
Nevada
9.7
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.6 percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

23. Unemployment Rates, Selected Large Metros (NSA) February 2013
Rank
MSA UR 1
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
5.5 11
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
7.9
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 12
St. Louis, MO-IL
8.0 3
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
6.0
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
6.3 14
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
8.3
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
8.7 6
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
6.6 16
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
8.8 7
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
6.7 17
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
9.4 8
Baltimore-Towson, MD
7.1 18
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
10.2
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 19
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
10.4 10
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
7.4 20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
10.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. Pad Save

25. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through March 2013
Source: Freddie Mac

26. U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through March 2013
Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

27. U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through March 2013
Source: Census Bureau

28. ABC’s National Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) Average 2009Q1 through 2012Q4
2011Q4– 2012Q4: 2.4%
Source: ABC

29. Architecture Billings Index December 2007 through March 2013
Source: The American Institute of Architects

30. Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place July 2006 through February 2013
Oct. 08: $719.0 billion
Feb. 12: $575.6 billion
-19.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

31. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector February 2013 v. February 2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

32. Large Construction Project Underway
California High Speed Rail: $68 billion, to be completed in 2028: 1
O’Hare Airport Modernization (Chicago, IL): $8.8billion, to be completed in 2016; 2
Dulles Transit Extension: $6.2 billion, started in 2008 and to be competed in 2016;3
New York’s Water Tunnel, No. 3: $5.5 billion–$6.0 billion, began in 1970 and expected to complete in 2020;4
Alaskan Way Viaduct (Seattle, WA): $3.1 billion, to be opened in 2015;5
Ohio River Bridge (Indiana & Kentucky): $2.6 billion;6
Boston Convention Ctr. Expansion: $2.0 billion, hotels will open in 2015; 7
Shepherd’s Flat Wind Farm (OR): $2 billion;8
Goethals bridge replacement (NY&NJ): $1.5 billion, to be completed by 2018;9
Port of Long Beach Middle Harbor Project (CA): $1.2 billion, 10 years to complete.10
Source: Smartplanet.com; 2.Governing.com; 3. Id; 4.NYC.gov; 5.Governing.com; 6. Bizjournals.com ;
7. Boston.com; 8. Sustainablebusinessoregon.com; 9. Cicnysb.firstdaystory.com; 10. Bridgemi.com

33. Inputs to Construction PPI January 2001 - March 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

34. Key Commodity Prices January 2001 - March 2013
Source: BLS: EIA

35. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through March 2013
March 2013 = 94.7 where 2004=100
Source: Conference Board

36. Fourth Quarter
Economy slowed markedly during last year’s fourth quarter;
First half of 2013 also shaping up to be quite soft, though first three months were better than expected – sequestration will grind into the economy and into the data during the summer;
Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe;
Many headwinds remain and the nascent recovery could easily falter;
Colorado’s economy has improved and the long-term outlook remains very promising; and
Construction now participating in recovery, particularly west of the Mississippi.