1. Start Hot-Start Section
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

2. Recent LAPS Analysis Improvements
Added new data ingest routines
Radiometers
MADIS (mesonet, aircraft)
Improved Determination of multi-Doppler winds
Independent of radar order (CWB collaboration)
Increased ROC domain wideband (Lvl-II) radars to 13
Improved derivation of cloud vertical velocities (CWB collaboration)
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

3. Cloud vertical motion
Important for 0- to 12-hour forecast using Hot Start
Cloud vertical motion tuning
Fall velocity dependence
Improved cloud-type dependence
Randomly specified updrafts
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

4. Result: Laps analysis
: Same as but redefined convective and stratiform region
: Same as but did not site downward motion in stratiform region
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

5. Recent LAPS Analysis Improvements (cont)
Corrected vertical temperature bias in balance package
Began testing improved balance scheme, incorporating thermodynamic terms
New Fire Wx Grids (Haines Index)
Numerous other miscellaneous improvements
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

6. Recent MM5 Forecast Improvements
SST input from GFS
Provides better forecasts than climo or “pseudo-SST”
Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis
Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor
Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting need for TKE field for HYPACT integration
Switched PBL scheme to MRF
Reduced surface T RMSE and bias by 1-2K
Implemented new Schultz II microphysics
Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

7. 0-3 h QPF Verification
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

8. 0-6 h QPF Verification
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

9. 0-12 h QPF Verification
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

10. JAX WRF QPF Verification
0600 UTC +3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct 03 thru 4 May 04
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

11. 15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

12. Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar Verification 9 Feb 04

13. End Hot-Start Section
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

14. 15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

15. Start RSA Section
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

16. System Design Review Basic requirements Trades considered
New 24-h forecast every 6 hours
High spatial resolution (1 km objective)
Support launch weather operations and range safety requirements for dispersion modeling
Integrate with display system (AWIPS)
Trades considered
Size of domain and nesting options
Forecast length vs. scale predictability
Computational resources vs. cost-benefit
Future upgrade path
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

17. Basic Solution LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP model
Use diabatic initialization (“hot start”)
Utilize parallel code on Linux cluster
Integrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

18. AWIPS Integration NOAAPORT LDAD Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP
LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids
AWIPS
Data Server
AWIPS
Workstation
Modeling
Server
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

19. Hardware Configuration
Linux Cluster Modeling Server
1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors)
Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node
60GB RAID array on front-end
Myrinet inter-connect
Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS
LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on master node
6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute nodes
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

20. LAPS Domain Configuration
Triple Nest Domain
97x97
10.0/3.3/1.1 km x
10km for Model Init
3.3/1.1 for NowCasting
LAPS Runs
Hourly analyses
41 Pressure levels
Runs at H+20 min
Available at H+30 min WR ER
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

21. RSA LAPS Data Sources National Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed)
Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215)
Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity
GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR)
MDCARS
RAOBs
METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys
National Profiler Network
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

22. RSA LAPS Data Sources Sea Surface Temperature Data
NCEP internet FTP feed
GFS model
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

23. RSA LAPS Data Sources Local Data (via LDAD)
Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr)
Local ASOS Observations
50/915 MHz Wind Profilers
MiniSODAR Wind Profiles
RASS
Tower observations
AMPS Soundings
Local MM5 forecast grids
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

24. MM5 Forecast Model Two configurations for RSA
“Update” run to provide first guess for LAPS
Used for “downscaling” national model
Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node (serial)
Initialized with national first guess (Eta forecast) and NCEP SST
Domain 1 (10km) only
Not displayed on AWIPS
Forecast run used for operational forecasts
Diabatically intialized with LAPS
Runs every 6 hours
Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to 24/12/9
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

25. MM5 Forecast Model MM5 v3 used for RSA application
Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002
FSL modifications for diabatic initialization
FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for operations
Concurrent post-processing
Supports multiple output formats
Allows viewing on workstation as model runs
Hourly temporal output
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

26. MM5 Run Configuration (Development System Config)
30-second timestep
MRF PBL Scheme
Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains
2-way feedback between nests
Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic)
Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent
Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

27. Vertical Level Configuration
41 s Levels
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

28. LAPS-MM5 Production Cycle
MM5 Forecast
(Every 6 h)
- 10km to 24h
- 3.3 to 12h
- 1.1 to 9h
National Model Forecast
(Eta via SBN)
Lateral Boundary Conditions
2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC
Hourly Cycle
MM5 Update Cycle
(10km)
1-h Forecast for First Guess
Diabatic Init. Cond.
10-km LAPS Analysis
3.3-km LAPS Analysis
1.1-km LAPS Analysis
Observations
via SBN and
LDAD
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

29. End RSA Section
15 June 2005
RSA TIM – Boulder, CO