1. Financial Services Skills Scenarios
for the European Financial Services Sector
Kurt Vogler-Ludwig
Plenary Meeting of the
Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee on BANKS
27 November 2009

2. Anticipation of Skill Needs
CEDEFOP / Warwick Institute for Employment Research:
Econometric forecasts of labour demand
for 27 EU countries
DG EMPL / TNO, Economix, ...
Skills scenarios for 18 European sectors
DG EMPL Restructuring

3. Sectors Automotive industries Building of ships and boats
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products
Computer, electronic and optical products
Defence industries
Distribution, trade
Electricity, gas, water & waste
Electromechanical engineering
Financial services
Furniture and others
Health and social work
Hotels, catering and related services
Non-metallic materials
Other services, maintenance and cleaning
Post and telecommunications
Printing and publishing
Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products
Transport

4. Methodology 1: Mapping of the sector 2: Identification of drivers
3: Identification of emerging competences
4: Scenarios of evolution of employment
5: Implication for occupational profiles and competences
6: Strategic choices to meet the skill needs
7: Implications for education and training
8: Recommendations

5. Financial services: Assumptions for the post-crisis period
Liquidity crisis transformed into a solvency crisis
Recession of real economy will have strong feedback
Public supervision will be re-enforced
Consumer confindence is seriously damaged
A new wave of mergers & acquisitions

6. Three scenarios

7. Scenario characteristics

8. Employment effects EU27
Million workers

9. Impact on skills EU27

10. Critical competences

11. Financial crisis 2nd scene
2.8 trillion USD losses from the financial crisis (IMF)
only ½ has been compensated (Eurozone: 40 %)
The world economy in deep recession:
GDP growth rate:
2009
2010
estimate
USA
-2.5
1.8
Japan
-5.6
1.6
China
7.8
8.6 EU
-4.0
0.7
EU unemployment rate
9.1
10.3
Credit trap: rising credit risks and narrowing credit limits
No adequate restructuring in the financial sector
No effective international supervision

12. What is needed? European stabilisation funds
private risk insurance for systemic financial institutions
Standardised and supervised platforms for derivatives
Empowerment of supervisory boards
Rapid public control over institutions at risk
Flexible leverage ratio
Improved risk assessment tools (micro and macro)

13. Thank you for your attention!