1. Propensity for Voluntary Turnover in a Recession-Like Economy
By: William W. Woodard, III
Advisor: Dr. James W. Russell
April 25, 2012

2. Outline Research questions Background on employee turnover
My hypotheses
A short literature review
Why is this study important?
Methodology
The survey and the data
Analysis
Further Research
Implications for managers
Bibliography

3. Research Questions
Why would key employees leave during a recession-like economy?
What can management do to keep their key employees from leaving during such a situation?
How do employees think during harsh economic times?

4. Background on Employee Turnover
Definition: “The number of employees hired to replace those who left or were fired during a 12 month period.”
Costs of Turnover:
Up to a full year’s salary for the employee lost
Cost of a replacement (job posting, interviewing/ screening, hiring, and training)
Morale within the company

5. Hypotheses H1: As age increases, the propensity for VT will decrease
H2: As the likelihood of an individual being fired increases, the propensity for VT will increase
H3: As the number of opportunities outside one’s job increases, the propensity for VT will increase
H4: As the level of company engagement increases for an individual, the propensity for VT will decrease

6. Literature Review
“more than 80 percent of workers may now be actively seeking new jobs,” and that companies “may be losing some of their best and brightest.” –Jan Ferri-Reed
“Retaining Talent: Replacing Misconceptions With Evidence-Based Strategies” –Allen, Bryant, and Vardaman

7. Why is this Important? Employee Turnover is already a problem
The retention of key employees can keep a company in business during a recession
Managers need to know what tactics keep key employees with their company

8. Methodology
Review literature on employee turnover, motivation, and engagement
Design a survey to test my hypotheses through Qualtrics
Survey 40+ people
Find correlations between propensity for VT and other variables

9. The Survey 46 questions Time varied from 10 to 20 minutes
An message and link to the survey were sent to about 120 people including:
Current undergrad students and recent graduates
Fraternity brothers who had graduated from college
Relatives and their colleagues
Alumni contacts of professors

10. What age group are you in?
Data: Age
“I am currently seeking other employment opportunities” A/D SD D N A SA
Total
What age group are you in?
18-24 1 6 8 10 35
25-32 4 2 3 18
33-40
41 and older 11 14 16 66
Key
What I expected
SD=Strongly Disagree
D=Disagree
N=Neither Agree nor Disagree
What was actually found
SA=Strongly Agree
A=Agree

11. Regression Statistics
Age vs. VT
Q2(x) vs. VT(y)
Equation: VT = x+3.415
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations 67
ANOVA df SS MS F
Significance F
Regression 1
Residual 65
Total 66
Coefficients
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
2.72E-15
Age:
For respondents 25 and older, r2 =

12. Data: Likelihood of being fired
There was no single question to determine likelihood of being fired
For this, we used multiple regression
Questions 16 & 42 vs. VT

13. Likelihood of being fired vs. VT
Q42(x1), Q16(x2) vs. VT(y)
Equation: VT=0.3257x x
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations 68
ANOVA df SS MS F
Significance F
Regression 2
Residual 65
Total 67
Coefficients
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
4.7E-06
LB 42(43):
LB 16(17):

14. Data: Other Opportunities
“I am currently seeking other employment opportunities” A/D SD D N A SA
Total
How many years of experience do you have in your field of work?
Less than 1 4 2 8
1-3 5 9 7 29
4-6 1 3 15
7-9
10 or more 11 10 14 18 16 66
Key
What I expected
SD=Strongly Disagree
D=Disagree
N=Neither Agree nor Disagree
What was actually found
SA=Strongly Agree
A=Agree

15. Other Opportunities vs. VT
Q11(x) vs. VT(y)
Equation: VT= x+3.483
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations 67
ANOVA df SS MS F
Significance F
Regression 1
Residual 65
Total 66
Coefficients
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
3.71E-12
OO:
For those who thought it would be easy to find another job, r2 =

16. Data: Company Engagement
“I am currently seeking other employment opportunities” A/D SD D N A SA
Total
“My company has a mission/ vision that I understand and agree with” A/D 2 1 3 10 4 11 7 28 6 16 9 8 13 18 15 64
Key
What I expected
SD=Strongly Disagree
D=Disagree
N=Neither Agree nor Disagree
What was actually found
SA=Strongly Agree
A=Agree

17. Company Engagement vs. VT
Q35(x) vs. VT(y)
Equation: VT= 0.086x+2.949
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations 67
ANOVA df SS MS F
Significance F
Regression 1
0.3898
Residual 65
Total 66
Coefficients
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
1.21E-07 CE
I examined several other questions involving company engagement, but all their correlations were very low.

18. Notable Data
78% believe we are going through harsh economic times similar to a recession
51% showed some propensity for VT
47% have had three or more jobs since Dec. 2007
79% of those who have had more than one job left their most recent job voluntarily

19. Notable Data (cont.) 55% feel they should be paid more
38% view the recent economic conditions as a distraction and a cause of stress towards their job and growth as an employee
23% view the recent economic conditions as an opportunity to further their experience and job growth

20. Analysis of the Results
None of my hypotheses were supported
Very small correlation of propensity of VT with:
Age
Other employment opportunities
Company engagement
Low correlation between VT and likelihood of being fired.

21. Further Research
This study could be re-done on a larger and more definitive scale
It needs to represent more of the working population.
The research needs to be done with the end in mind
Global representation

22. Implications for Managers
Even during harsh economic times, employees still consider leaving.
39% of respondents enjoy going to work because:
They love what they do
There is a positive work environment
There is a feeling of accomplishment
There is a flexible lifestyle

23. Bibliography

24. Questions?