1. Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century?
Emiko Fukase & Will Martin,
World Bank, 23 November 2013

2. Issues China’s food demand will rise substantially
Changes in diets towards animal products
What will happen to production?
Implications for trade & self-sufficiency

3. Demand

4. Econometric Approach Based on the experience of 155 countries
Calculate the cereal equivalents required to produce diets as incomes grow
Estimate the relationship between real income & consumption of cereal equivalents

5. Cereal equivalents Products Coefficients Bovine Meat 19.8 Pork 8.5
Poultry
4.7
Fish, Seafood
3.3
Eggs
3.8
Milk
1.2

6. Estimated demand

7. CE Consumption

8. grows much faster than food calories

9. Production

10. Production z = B0 + B1 XB2 H B3 Rationale
where z is CE production per capita, X is PPP GDP per capita, H is ha of arable land per capita
Rationale
Agricultural output higher in countries with greater land per person
Productivity growth drives GDP growth
And agricultural growth

11. Agric CEs vs income

12. Arable land per capita

13. China– net import phase

14. Some Policy implications

15. Most imports animal feed
Direct per capita consumption of grains is falling especially amongst rural consumers
Protection of staples would hurt the poor
Also create inefficiencies in agriculture that increase import demand for animal feeds
Protection of animal feeds would slow development of modern livestock sectors
May create a need for imports of staple foods
or for imports of meat

16. Decline in rural grain cons, kg/capita

17. Raising farm incomes Critical problem given rural-urban income gap
Higher prices have only a temporary impact
And hurt many poor consumers
A dynamic problem requiring:
increasing productivity,
reduced barriers to outmigration,
Improvements in rural infrastructure
farm mechanization & consolidation
A huge agenda

18. Conclusions Demand for food to grow rapidly
Calorie consumption to grow only slightly
Rapid rise in consumption of livestock products
Which require more cereal– due to feed conversion
China’s land endowment well below world average– but far above Japan/Korea
Production growth to catch up as demand slows
Appears that China will (mostly) feed China
Farmer incomes increased sustainably by mechanization, raising productivity & farm size