1. Fire Weather November Training Days
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2004

2. Picking the “really bad day”
Ash Wednesday case
Canberra/Alpine outbreak case
Wangary
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© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

3. Case studies – Ash Wednesday 1983
Mesoscale modelling – done
What made it unusual – depth of front
Deep fronts > worst fire weather in southeast Australia (80% bushfire deaths in top 0.2% of cases)
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

4. Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

5. Wangary?
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6. Wangary Not (?) an Ash Wednesday, but deep front, strong pressure rise
So how did it rate, and what about a few days out?
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

7. South Australian Region: (37.5S,130.0E) – (30.0S, 140.0E)
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

8. Medium Range Predictability?
WANGARY (GASP)
5 days : 2.4 / 300K – x
4 days : 2.7 / 300K – x
3 days : 4.8 / 300K – 
2 days : 4.3 / 300K – 
1 day : 3.7 / 300K – 
0 day : 4.2 / 300K (0600 UTC)
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

9. Forecasts very consistent from 72 hours – strong front + strong post-frontal winds
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© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

10. Seasonal forecasts – more or less “strong fronts” in a given season?
Opportunities?
Medium range alerts
Seasonal forecasts – more or less “strong fronts” in a given season?
Climate change scenarios
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

11. Scott Power &
Rob Colman
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

12. Therefore subjective for now BUT look at 850 TEMP forecasts
Challenges:
Calibration of models
Therefore subjective for now
BUT look at 850 TEMP forecasts
Confidential
© Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005