1. Bushfire CRC Grassland Curing Project Ian Grant Bureau of Meteorology NAFE Workshop, 14 February 2006

2. Grassland Curing What: The seasonal dying and drying of grassland Grassland Curing Index = Percentage dead Why: - An input to fire danger rating systems - An input to fire behaviour models Curing input  Fire danger/behaviour output  Fire management decisions

3. Grassland Curing Index - How it’s done now AVHRR method compares reflectance in two spectral bands Developed by CSIRO, run by Bureau of Meteorology Victoria and South Australia only >95% >65% >85% >45% >25% <25%

4. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing Aim: Develop techniques of grassland curing assessment that are robust, reliable, validated and applicable across Australia and New Zealand Duration: July 2004 – June 2010 Field measurement program: Systematic sampling of fuel moisture content at several sites across Australia and NZ, through three or four seasons

5. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing Approaches: Remote sensing (vegetation indices, thermal) - AVHRR, MODIS, Landsat? Pasture growth models, driven by meteorology - Assessment, Prediction Soil moisture - Direct measurements - Indicators: Drought Code, Keetch Byram Drought Index, Soil Dryness Index - Validate/improve water balance in growth models Assimilation eventually?

6. Vegetation indices: MODIS vs AVHRR

7. Grassland Curing – Assimilation Solar Radiation … Grass growth model Observation Model Precipitation Temperature Sfc Obs Fuel Curing GEO Sfc Obs Polar /GEO AVHRR /MODIS Fuel Amount Vegetation Index Land Sfc Temperature Assimilation scheme Landsat? Meteorological obs + Remote Sensing obs + Growth model in an assimilation framework

8. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing Status: Trials of field sampling methods done in 2005 Sampling in SE Australia and NZ commenced end of 2005 Sampling in northern Australia will commence mid-2006

9. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing Recruiting now Postdoc – Remote sensing (vegetation indices) – Field sampling coordination – Canberra, CSIRO – Contact: Jim.Gould@ensisjv.com PhD student – Remote sensing – Melbourne, Bureau of Meteorology + Uni – CRC Scholarship available – Contact: I.Grant@bom.gov.au

10. Curing and soil moisture: Questions and requirements Can progression of visible curing and soil moisture be related? Can soil moisture observations improve/validate growth models? Requires measurements spread through a curing season Which measure of soil moisture is most appropriate? Can fuel moisture content be estimated, or optical estimates improved, with microwave observations of vegetation? Co-locate some curing sampling sites with soil moisture sites, and University of Newcastle growth monitoring sites General requirements for satellite targets: - Little topography (over ~1  1 km 2 ) - Few or no trees (over ~1  1 km 2 ) - A range of grassland types

11. Other useful measurements Curing Project personal would sample grass curing VNIR spectrometer measurements of surface – ground, air, multiangular? Thermal radiometer measurements of surface – radiometric land surface temperature, multiangular? Non-routine satellites – MISR local mode (9 angles, 4 bands, 275-m) − Tumbarumba scheduled  Goulburn hard, Murrumbidgee easy – ASTER (visible to thermal bands, 30-m) – GOES-9 TIR (hourly, 5 km)