Drone Delivery Exercise

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Presentation on theme: "Drone Delivery Exercise"— Presentation transcript:

1 Drone Delivery Exercise
Example with Answer Drone Delivery Exercise 1

2 Future of Transportation Drone Delivery: The Process
The Basic Process Develop A Vison of the Future (Future State) How Does the Trend / Concept Affect The Future? What will it Disrupt or Change in the Market? Why Will it Matter? Evaluate the Current State What is Happening Today? What Works, What Doesn’t? What Issues Exist Right Now? Develop a Gap Analysis The Process of Analyzing the Current State and Projecting it to the Future State to Determine What is Missing or What Must be Done to Achieve the Future State

3 Future of Transportation Drone Delivery: Current State
Trends Description Cost Impact Scalable Small Drones Small drones pilots for package delivery Low Limited Not Likely Emphasis on Urban Many believe urban delivery is the answer High Significant cultural, security issues Military Uses Drones Larger Drones are used for intelligence gathering and tactical operations Very High Very Effective Potentially Regulatory Issues FAA has not ruled on the use of drones N/A No Infrastructure for Drones Drones do not have landing or “gate rights” Moderate Likely

4 Future of Transportation Drone Delivery: Future State
Trends Description Cost Impact Scalable Drones with Freight Capacity Drones are able to delivery many packages at once to reduce cost of existing delivery Moderate High Drones supplant inefficient delivery models Used to delivery individual and bulk to remote areas or other areas that are inefficient for trucking and possibly manned air Low Very High Drones Delivery Primarily Parcel and LTL Drones are used for Parcel (Consolidated) along with LTL along with break bulk and closer delivery. Could use Large Drones with a breakout to Small Local Drones Drone Operations via non-congested airports Drones leverage the vast network of smaller Tier II and III airports rather than major air centers reducing congestion Small Commercial Drone Delivery Becomes Widespread (The Long Term Vision) Large commercial drones are consistently used as an extended delivery model for LTL and Parcel delivery primarily for rural areas where trucking delivery is inefficient due to time or cost Moderate to High Game Changing

5 Future of Transportation Drone Delivery: Gap Analysis
Issues Description Cost Dependencies Timing Freight Based Drones Must be Developed Large drones must be re-engineered from existing military drones to carry freight High Market Demand 3 – 5 Years Labor market for drone pilots and operations Currently, only the military trains for large scale drones. Commercialization activities must occur to train drone pilots, maintenance, and operations Market Demand, FAA Approval / Certification 5 – 7 Years FAA Approval FAA must approve the widespread use of commercial drones, small and large Low None 1 – 2 Years Drone-Friendly Infrastructure Specific infrastructure must be approved and developed specifically for large scale drone usage FAA Approval, Local Authority Approval Commercial Drone Delivery Becomes Widespread (The Long Term Vision) Large commercial drones are consistently used as an extended delivery model for LTL and Parcel delivery primarily for rural areas where trucking delivery is inefficient due to time or cost Moderate to High Game Changing Very High

6 The Future of Transportation Drone Delivery
Infrastructure Drone Technology Business Model Regulation Defines Large Drone Airspace FAA Establishes Small Drone Use Approves First Broad Unmanned Flight Plans Interest Develops in Large Drones Too small for Freight consolidation “Limited Range” Increased Labor Pool Commercial Drone Creation NLT 2022 First Rural Airports Look at Drone Operations (Establish Specific Areas for Drones) Unmanned Drones Leveraging Rural Airports Time Horizon: Years (2025 – 2030) Commercial Drone Delivery (Rural Areas) Small Drone Military Drone Military Drawdown of Service Personnel Market Realization Evolved Avionics Freight Holding Capability 2016 2018 2022 Rural Airports Set up Standards for Small Drone Use Rural Airports Allow Unmanned Large Commercial Drones (Limited) LTL or Parcel Company Establishes Regular Unmanned Operation at Rural Airport Establishes Large Drone Air Guidelines 2025 2017 Unmanned Freight Drones LTL or Parcel Companies Evaluate Drones Early Pilots with Small Drones Fail Full Scale Commercial Drone LTL Pilots 2023 Rural Value Proposition for Commercial Drones Develop

7 Here some ideas about the exercise to choose one from the following

8 Future of Transportation: 4 topic here choose one to do exercise
$90T GDP, 7.3B People, $12,195 Global GDP Per Capita 3% Incr % Incr % Incr. 1. CONSUMER TRENDS Global Internet Commerce Global Middle Class Growth / Global Population Growth (Infrastructure Need) Continued Aging Population (Potential Under-Employment) 2. SUSTAINABILITY Improved Technology The Northern Sea Route (Unintended Consequence) 3. TECHNOLOGY 3D Printing Self-Driven Vehicles 4. GEOPOLITICAL Fuel Prices Country Safety and Security Emergence of Africa

9 Transportation Futures: Consumer Trends
Global Internet Commerce Growth of Online Commerce Greater Participation from Younger and Global Clients The Trend Impacts Creating an “Equalizing Affect” Impacting Global Logistics and Shipping Extending Supply Chains Beyond Normal Visibility Range Rise of a Global Middle Class Resource Impacts Spending Potential Realigning Globally Dramatic Increase in Parcel Shipping The Middle Class of the Future is NOT the Middle Class of Today Continued Aging Population Potential for Under Employment Increased Shipping Need in Healthcare Increased Use and Focus on Home This is a Global Phenomenon

10 Transportation Futures : Consumer Trend Implications
Global Internet Commerce – Is Actually A Consequence More than A Trend Rise of a Global Middle Class How can a Global Middle Class Be Sustainable Above 1 Billion people? What would have to Change? What would be Different? Are there Examples of it Happening Today? Tiny Houses? Urban Environments? Others? Continued Aging of Global Population What Happens to the Workforce? Does an Aging Population Create a Wave of Innovation Due to Its Absence in the Workplace? What Happens to Healthcare? Lifespan? What Implication Does A Dramatic Increase In Lifespan have on the world?

11 Transportation Futures Sustainability: Long Term Trends to Consider
“An approach to progress which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Long Term Sustainability Trends Emissions and Carbon Foot Print Non-Renewable Resources Consumer Input as a Driving Force Global Population Trends – Can We Support 10 Billion People? 20? Global Water Systems Recycle and Reclamation Transportation Implications On: Consumer Preference Toward Sustainability Freight Model Shift from Freight to Global Parcel

12 Transportation Futures Technology: 3D Printing
The “MUST HAVES” of 3D Printing A Blueprint Printing Medium A 3D Printer Printing Occurs Complete Output Assemble-able Parts

13 Transportation Futures Technology: 3D Printing Implications
Impacts of 3D Printing Implications In Manufacturing Implications In Shipping Implications on Intellectual Property and Licensing Implications on Consumer Based Consumption

14 Transportation Futures Technology: Self Driving Vehicles; Current State
Driver Safety Improvements (While In Control of Vehicle) ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System) Lane Keeping Assist System (LKAS) using Sensor Cameras Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) using Millimeter Wave Radar AEB (Autonomous Emergency Breaking) Uses Sensors to Monitor Vehicles Nearby Applies Breaking System If Sensors Identify Danger Intelligent Vehicle Technology LIDAR Remote Sensing (In Early Testing) Laser Based Sensing System Obstacle Detection and Avoidance System California has made Testing Legal

15 Technology: Self Driving Vehicles
What Actually Is Required to be “Self Driving” Vehicle Has to Act Autonomously without an Operator Sensing Technology Has to Work In All Conditions Vehicle Has to Be A Part of an Intelligent “Network” Vehicle Likely Must Provide the Driver “Options”

16 Technology: Self Driving Vehicle Implications
On Technology: How Ready Are We? On Law: What Will It Take To Make It Legal? Implication in Truck Transportation On Liability: Define Insurance? On Society’s Acceptance: Will We? Really?


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