1. Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2
Task Force on GDP Flash estimates at t+30 days
GDP t+30 Eurostat results, future data work
4th Meeting of the TF, Den Haag January, 2015
Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2
TF T+30, June 2014

2. Content …
Coverage:
1.1 Country data available at t+30d, three first rounds
1.2 Coverage of the country data, three first rounds
1.3 Coverage of the country data, now - future?
TF T+30, June 2014

3. … Content 2. Results: 3. Future data work
2.1 Results – summary, first test estimates
2.2 First test estimates vs. T+65
2.3 Discussion on first test results
3. Future data work
TF T+30, June 2014

4. 1.1 Country data available at T+30d, three first rounds
Of the 17 TF members to 12 have been able to transmit their country estimates in the first three test rounds at t+30 d
MSs already publishing at t+30 d:
2014Q1: BE, ES, LT, UK, =4 (2 in the TF)
2014Q3: BE, ES, LT, UK, AT, LV =6 (3 in the TF)
TF T+30, June 2014

5. 1.2 Coverage of the country data, three first rounds
2014Q1 EA18: 70% countries EU28: 70% countries
2014Q2 (ESA2010) EA18: 41% countries EU28: 49% 11 countries
2014Q3 EA18: 67% countries EU28: 68% countries
The bolded countries already publish their GDP at T+30d
TF T+30, June 2014

6. 1.3 Coverage of the country data, now - future?
EU28: 14 MS data available (+ CH)
TF: BG, DE, FI, IT, LT, LV, NL, PL, PT, RO, UK
+ AT, BE, ES % (+ FR: Q3, Q4?) (88.6%) (+ HU: transmission at t+30?) (89.3%)
EA19: 10 MS data available
TF: DE, FI, IT, LT, LV, NL, PT
+ AT, BE, ES %
(+ FR: Q3, Q4?) (94.4%)
TF T+30, June 2014

7. 2.1 Results – summary, first test estimates
TF T+30, June 2014

8. 2.2 First test estimates vs. T+65
t+30d t+45d t+65d
2014Q1 EA % 0.2% 0.2%
EU % 0.3% 0.3%
2014Q2 EA % 0.0% 0.0%
EU % 0.2% 0.2%
2014Q3 EA % 0.2% 0.2% EU % 0.3% 0.3%
TF T+30, June 2014

9. 2.3 Discussion on first test results
After three rounds the results can be considered promising
The TF members have promptly transmitted their data for the on-line test estimates. We have been positively surprised on the number of countries managing to transmit their GDP test estimates already in the first test rounds
We kindly thank for the country contributions !
TF T+30, June 2014

10. 3. Future data work … Nr What When Who 1
Test calculations – ‘real time’ provision of national data every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
End-Jan 2015, end-Apr 2015, etc.
Most TF Members 2
Production of EU and EA GDP test flash estimates, every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
Begin-Feb 2015, begin-May 2015, etc.
ESTAT, CE 3
Test calculations – provision of national back data 2012Q Q4
December  February 2014
Most TF members 4
Test estimates for EA/EU, back data 2012Q1 – 2013Q4
Spring 2015 – Summer 2015
ESTAT, CE?
TF T+30, June 2014

11. 3. …Future data work Nr What When Who 5
Update of growth rate triangles for revision analyses – ,
Spring 2015 – Summer 2015
TF Members,
ESTAT 6
Revision analysis on the test estimates – ,
Spring 2015 – Autumn 2015
ESTAT, WG quality 7
Calculation of data indicators and other analyses for Quality criteria (e.g. un-biasness of t+30?)
Summer 2015 – Autumn 2015
TF T+30, June 2014

12. Thank you for your attention !
MANY THANKS FOR THE COUNTRY CONTRIBUTIONS
Comments, notions from TF members:
Please feel free to comment …
TF T+30, June 2014