1. Midterm Election Only 376 Days Away
Dan Moll
Moll Strategies, LLC &
Associate Vice President
Parcel Shippers Association

2. GOP holds majority 241 seats to 194
GOP has controlled the House 20 of the last 24 years
Democrats need 24 seats to take the majority

3. GOP majority 52-48
Dems Need Net +3

4. All Politics is Local!
Speaker Tip O’Neill
2018 Local or National?

5. Why Democrats Will Gain Seats
Already hit rock bottom
Largest GOP majority since 1928 was only 6 seats greater than the current roster of House Republicans
Candidate recruitment is strong--historically low approval ratings for the President--apparent political weakness
Why Democrats Will Gain Seats

6. Why Democrats Will Gain Seats
Midterms referendum on the sitting President
Historical Landslides in House
In 1994 POTUS Bill Clinton -- GOP picked up 54
In 2010 POTUS Barack Obama – GOP picked up 63
Why Democrats Will Gain Seats

7. Why Republicans Might Hold On
Voter Turnout in midterms – roughly 60% Prez
Turnout especially problematic for the Democrats
Alienated by President Trump, minorities and millennials least likely to show up
Seniors -- solid GOP voting bloc cast a larger %
Why Republicans Might Hold On

8. Why Republicans Might Hold On
Democrats—defending 25 seats GOP—defending 8
Lopsidedness playing field makes 3-seat gain needed to take control seem daunting
Of their 25 seats, 10 of them are in states that Trump won in the 2016 election
Trump Territory -- North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, West Virginia and Indiana
Why Republicans Might Hold On

9. Midterm Democrat Theme
Mission pretty basic
Keep pointing at Trump and asking voters in horrified tones:
“Do you really want this guy running around unchecked?”
Midterm Democrat Theme

10. Midterm Republican Theme
Republicans (a little bit more nuanced)
Washington is dysfunctional and we need to send more Republicans to DC to help President drain the swamp
GOP needs a villain for the midterms
Devil foes: Hilary Clinton & Barack Obama
Midterm Republican Theme

11. GOP Candidates “Vote for Me to Stop Nancy Pelosi from Becoming Speaker”
GOP Favorite Villain

12. Republican Legislative Victories?

13. Market Due for Correction
Dow Jones Industrial Average Closed at New All Time High 66 Times since last election—up 4,600 points 25%
Market Due for Correction

14. Kim Jung Un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea & the supreme leader of North Korea
Also Known As Rocket Man
Crazy Foreign Foes

15. Special Counsel Investigation
Former FBI Director Robert Mueller
Special Counsel Investigation

16. 2018 Midterm Election Dan Moll