1. Reframing climate change: from long-term targets to emission pathways
Professor Kevin Anderson Director of the Tyndall’s Centre’s Energy Programme

2. Reframing Climate Change:
From long-term targets to emission pathways
The talk I will give to you today is based upon part of the aviation and contraction and convergence project at Manchester
The idea of this presentation is to highlight the false sense of security that government aviation forecasts are giving us in relation to climate change.
I would just like to add that a more detailed description can be found in the special feature in delegate packs
Based on research by
Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
Kevin Anderson
Research director
Tyndall Centre’s energy programme
University of Manchester
17th June 2008

3. Talk outline What is dangerous climate change?
Reframing the debate - cumulative emissions
“It’s energy demand stupid”
The critical role of aviation & shipping
Responding to the challenge
… the UK’s climate change bill?
Revisiting the global context

4. What is dangerous climate change?
UK & EU define this as 2C
Links to total quantity of CO2 in atmosphere
- measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv)
Currently 380ppmv & increasing 2-3ppmv each year
- 280ppmv before industrial revolution
Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO2
- i.e. 70% chance of exceeding 2C
50% chance of exceeding 3C

5. emission targets for 2C ?
What are the ‘correct’
emission targets for 2C ?
UK & EU have long term reduction targets
- e.g. UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050
But CO2 stays in atmosphere for approx. 100years
Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays &
will be added to by tomorrows
So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading

6. What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon
Put bluntly …
the final % reduction in carbon has little
relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change (e.g. 2C)
What is important are the
cumulative emissions of carbon

7. How does this scientifically-credible way of thinking, alter the challenge we face?

8. A bank-account analogy
We know:
.. how much money we have in the bank
between (the carbon budget)

9. “avoiding dangerous climate change”
For a 30% chance of
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
the UK’s budget is
~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon between

10. From this two questions arise
What are the emissions between 2000 & today?
What emissions are we locked into in the immediate future?

11. ~ 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon
Answer 1
… emissions between were
~ 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon
… i.e. we’ve used ¼ of our permitted emissions for 50 years in around 6 years!

12. Answer 2
Looking at this graphically …

13. Plot data from 2000 to 2006

14. Dip due to September 11th
Plot data from 2000 to 2006

15. What about the next 6 years …
with more aviation & shipping

16. … emissions are likely to rise

17. But we
only have
4.8
billion
tonnes
Carbon
in the
bank

18. … locking the UK into dramatic annual carbon reductions from around 2012-2032

19. ~ 9% p.a. reduction

20. … even a 550ppmv pathway has an emission reduction of ~ 6% p
… even a 550ppmv pathway has an emission reduction of ~ 6% p.a from 2015 for 2 decades

21. What does this pathway say about emission policies ?

22. most emissions are released in next 15 yrs
2006

23. demand
2006
supply
&
demand

24. … how does aviation fit into this?

25. Aviation is currently 7% of UK emissions (over ½ of that from cars)
11 MtC
2006

26. if emissions grow at 7% until 2012 reducing to 3% from 2012-2050
(historical mean)
reducing to 3% from
Aviation is currently 7% of UK emissions
(over ½ of that from cars)
11 MtC
2006

27. 17MtC
2012

28. 28MtC
2030
17MtC
2012

29. 28MtC
2030
~ 70% of UK emissions
17MtC
2012

30. … and a similar situation exists for shipping

31. What emissions pathway is implied by the climate change bill
The talk I will give to you today is based upon part of the aviation and contraction and convergence project at Manchester
The idea of this presentation is to highlight the false sense of security that government aviation forecasts are giving us in relation to climate change.
I would just like to add that a more detailed description can be found in the special feature in delegate packs

33. Domestic emissions already released
(ex. international aviation & shipping)

34. UK Domestic Carbon Emissions – Bill’s targets & pathways
Climate Bill’s implied trajectory
(though 26% by 2020)
(though 32% by 2020)
60% reduction

35. UK Cumulative budget – implied by the bill
Climate Bill’s implied trajectory
(though 26% by 2020)
Area = Cumulative carbon budget

36. UK Cumulative budget – implied by the bill
Climate Bill’s implied trajectory
(though 26% by 2020)
Bill equates to ~ 6.0GtC ( )
(ex. international aviation & shipping)

37. … adding International Aviation & Shipping
UK Cumulative budget – implied by the bill
Climate Bill’s implied trajectory
(though 26% by 2020)
Bill equates to ~ 6.0GtC ( )
(ex. international aviation & shipping)

38. … adding International Aviation & Shipping
~1.5GtC

39. … adding International Aviation & Shipping
~1.5GtC
i.e.
With a low growth future for aviation & shipping
( )

40. Consequently, the Bill implies:
- a UK total cumulative budget of ~ 7.5GtC
- an atmospheric concentration of over 650ppmv CO2
virtual certainty of exceeding 2°C
a 50% chance of exceeding 4°C

41. … so what should a 2°C science-based climate change bill contain

42. … the bill should : adopt cumulative emissions as basis for targets
acknowledge 2°C is much more demanding than
previously thought (~6 to 9% carbon reduction p.a.)
include aviation & shipping emissions
recognise need for immediate action on demand
(acknowledge reliance on low-carbon supply is misguided)

43. Revisiting the global context
The talk I will give to you today is based upon part of the aviation and contraction and convergence project at Manchester
The idea of this presentation is to highlight the false sense of security that government aviation forecasts are giving us in relation to climate change.
I would just like to add that a more detailed description can be found in the special feature in delegate packs

44. ‘global emission scenarios (CO2e)’
Tyndall’s
‘global emission scenarios (CO2e)’
What are the latest CO2 emission trends?
What are implications of factoring in:
- land-use & forestry?
- non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions?
When will global CO2e emissions peak?

45. What are the latest global CO2 emission trends?
~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs
~ 3.3% p.a. in last 5 years

46. What are the latest global CO2e emission trends?
~ 2.8% p.a. since 2000
~ Stern assumed 0.96%

47. Land-use & forestry emissions
Tyndall analysis uses
most ‘optimistic’ estimate from the literature
Tyndall very low emission scenario

48. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
Tyndall analysis uses
Short-term EPA estimates
Tyndall optimistic scenarios up to peak emissions
Stabilisation at low-level by 2050

49. When will global CO2e emissions peak?
USA
Stern
Tyndall , 2020, 2025

50. When will global CO2e emissions peak?
USA
Stern
Tyndall , 2020, 2025

51. What does all this imply for
a 450ppmvCO2e future?
Unprecedented annual
reductions
(~10% pa globally)

52. For 550ppmv CO2e with emissions peaking by 2020:
6% annual reductions in CO2e
9% annual reductions in CO2 from energy
For 650ppmv CO2e with emissions peaking by 2020:
3% annual reductions in CO2e
3.5% annual reductions in CO2 from energy

53. What are the precedents for such reductions?
annual reductions of greater than 1% p.a. have only
“been associated with economic recession or upheaval”
Stern 2006
UK gas & French 40x nuclear ~1% p.a. reductions
(ex. aviation & shipping)
Collapse Soviet Union economy ~5% p.a. reductions

54. So where does this leave us?
Even assuming:
… an unprecedented step change in mitigating emissions
… stabilising at 650ppmv CO2e appears increasingly to be the best we can expect
i.e. human-induced climate change of ~4°C or more

55. To conclude We need to urgently reframe the climate change debate:
For mitigation
2°C should remain the driver of policy
For adaptation
4°C should become the driver of policy

56. … ultimately ..
“at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.”
Roberto Unger

57. driving children to school double door refrigerators & home cinema
second homes, 2 cars & 3 TVs
& all with 9 billion people living on our planet!
driving children to school
double door refrigerators & home cinema
academics flying to climate change conferences
3 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3miles
hen parties in Prague & birthdays in Barcelona
musicians flying to climate change concerts
10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen
1-person living in 3 bedroom houses
business tycoons with private jets
patio heaters
‘right’ to fly & drive when & to wherever we want
year-round strawberries
celebrating the excesses of celebrities

58. End Reframing Climate Change:
From long-term targets to emission pathways
The talk I will give to you today is based upon part of the aviation and contraction and convergence project at Manchester
The idea of this presentation is to highlight the false sense of security that government aviation forecasts are giving us in relation to climate change.
I would just like to add that a more detailed description can be found in the special feature in delegate packs
Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Tyndall Centre
University of Manchester