1. Infotrak Harris Poll July 2011
Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris Interactive Global Network June 2011

2. The Methodology

3. The Methodology
A sample of 2400 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,000,000 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2.0 at 95% level of confidence. The survey was conducted in all regions of Kenya
The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural
Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya
Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews
The survey was conducted between 26th - 27th May, 2011

4. Margin of Error explained
Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only up to a certain point.
A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent.
By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-1.8 percent for a sample size of 4000.
This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size.
What is imperative is to ensure that the sample is representative of the universe you wish to cover. This is why in a continent the size of USA, most sample sizes range between covering the entire population. And the results are more or less accurate.
A 95 percent level of confidence is the acceptable standard for social surveys.

5. Margin of Error Illustration

6. The Sample distribution
Region
County
DISTRICT
SAMPLE
Nairobi
1. Nairobi
Nairobi West 60
Nairobi East
100
Nairobi North 90
Westlands 40
Coast
2. Mombasa
Mombasa
3. Kilifi
Kilifi 75
North Eastern
4. Garissa
Garissa
5. Wajir
Wajir West
Eastern
6. Isiolo
Isiolo
7. Meru
Igembe
8. Machakos
Embu
Machakos
120
Kangundo
Central
9. Nyeri
Nyeri South
105
10. Muranga
Muranga north
11. Kiambu
Ruiru
Rift Valley
12. Turkana
Turkana North
13. Transnzoia
Transzoia West
14. Uasin Gishu
Eldoret West
15. Nandi
Nandi North
16. Nakuru
Nakuru
165
Molo
17. Kericho
Trans Mara 45
Kipkelion
Western
18. kakamega
Kakamega South 65
19. Vihiga
Emuhaya 70
20. Bungoma
Bungoma West
Nyanza
21. Kisumu
Kisumu East
22. Homabay
Rachuonyo
23. Kisii
Kisii Central
24. Nyamira
Nyamira

7. The Constituencies Sample distribution
Region
Constituency
Nairobi
Starehe
Dagoretti
Westlands
Langata
Kasarani
Makadara
Embakasi
Coast
Changamwe
Kisauni
Likoni
Mvita
Bahari
Kaloleni
Ganze
Eastern
Isiolo North
Isiolo South
Igembe South
North Imenti
Central Imenti
Manyatta
Gachoka
Masinga
Machakos Town
Kathiani
Mwala
Kangundo
Region
Constituency
Central
Kieni
Tetu
Othaya
Nyeri Town
Kangema
Mathioya
Kiharu
Juja
Maragwa
Kandara
Thika
Gatundu North
Mathira
Gatundu South
Rift Valley
Nakuru Town
Molo
Naivasha
Turkana North
Turkana Central
Eldoret East
Eldoret North
Kipkelion
Ainapkoi
Belgut
Aldai
Tinderet
Kwanza
Region
Constituency
Western
Bumula
Nambale
Saboti
Kwanza
Malava
Lurambi
Shinyalu
Emuhaya
Butere
Webuye
Kanduyi
Nyanza
Kisumu Town East
Kisumu Town West
Kisumu Rural
Muhoroni
Karachuonyo
Kasipul Kabondo
Bonchari
Kitutu Masaba
West Mugirango
North Eastern
Dujis
Lagdera
Wajir North
Wajir West

8. The Key Findings

9. Re-election of the current Members of Parliament in the next general elections
Do you intend to re-elect your current Member of Parliament come next year’s general elections?

10. Majority of Kenyans; 63% indicated they do NOT intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament in the next years elections
Survey results reveal that more urban dwellers (67%) as compared to their rural counterparts (33%) do not intend to re-elect their current members of parliament in the next years elections
Gender analysis shows that more males (59%) than females (41%) do not intend to re-elect their current MPs
N = 2400
Do you intend to re-elect your current Member of Parliament come next year’s general elections?
Those who do NOT intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament come next year’s general elections?
[BY Gender & Location]

11. Majority of Kenyans; 81% who do not intend to re-elect their current members of parliament are mainly the youth (18 to 35 years)
n = 1512
Those who do NOT intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament come next year’s general elections? [BY Age]

12. Of Kenyans who do not intend to re-elect their current MPs, majority are drawn from Nyanza, Western and Eastern regions
Regions that recorded high incidence levels of those who indicated they do not intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament include;
Nyanza (77%), Eastern (74%) and Western (67%) regions
On the other hand, N.Eastern and Coastal regions recorded the lowest incidence levels of those who indicated they do not intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament at 44% and 56% respectively
Highest intention
Lowest intention
Do you intend to re-elect your current Member of Parliament come next year’s general elections?
Base 2400

13. Reasons for and against the intention of re-electing the current Members of Parliament in the coming elections
Reasons why they intend to re-elect their current MP in the coming election
Reasons why they do not intend to re-elect their current MP in the coming election
n = 1512
n = 887
n = 1512

14. Reasons for the intention of re-electing the current Members of Parliament in the coming elections
Reasons why they will re-elect their current members of parliament
Nairobi
Coast
N.Eastern
Eastern
Central
R.Valley
Nyanza
Western
Good management of Constituency Development Fund
69%
71%
40%
58%
59%
57%
61%
60%
Not Biased
44%
17%
77%
19%
31%
38%
16%
15%
Fights corruption 8% 9%
10% 6% 5%
Unites People 3% 7% 4%
Active in parliament proceedings 0% 2%
Charismatic 1%
Base 90 71 56
132
100
225
103
111

15. Reasons against the intention of re-electing the current Members of Parliament in the coming elections
Reasons why they will not re-elect their current members of parliament
Nairobi
Coast N.
Eastern
Central R.
Valley
Nyanza
Western
Undelivered promises
56%
49%
61%
57%
51%
53%
Poor management of CDF 7%
21%
10%
28%
16%
20%
44%
Corrupt
12%
30% 0%
18%
19%
Not easily accessible to constituents 5% 2%
11%
13% 3%
22%
General poor leadership 6% 8%
Poor or lack of participation in parliamentary proceedings 4% 1%
Arrogance
Old
Base
154
120 95
226
171
383
176
188

16. Kenyans say on the standards of living
How would you compare the standards of living between today and one year ago?

17. The standard of living is worse today than a year ago; this according to 84% of Kenyans surveyed
At least 80% of Kenyans surveyed across 7 regions affirmed that the living standards have become worse today as compared to a year ago
Compared to the other 7 regions, Central province recorded the lowest incidence at 73%
How would you compare the standards of living between today and one year ago?
Base 2400

18. Other key reasons include;
Most Kenyans; 45% cited improved infrastructure development as one of the areas that have changed for the better
22% of those surveyed indicated that the political stability of the country has changed for better in the last one year;
9% of those surveyed cited the new constitution as having improved the environment
Other key reasons include;
Free education
Economic growth
Creation of job opportunities
Increased funding to CDF
Base 72
If better than before, what would you say has changed to the better?

19. 84% of the surveyed Kenyans mentioned living standards have become worse than a year ago
High & rising cost of living was cited by 79% as the main reason why respondents mentioned the standards of living today have become worse than a year ago with 23% mentioning lack of employment opportunities
7% indicated the slow implementation of the constitution as the reason they said mentioned the standards of living today have become worse than a year ago
Base 2016
If worse than before, what would you say has changed to the worse?

20. Effects of escalating fuel & food prices on Kenyan’s lifestyles
Has the escalating fuel and food prices had any effect on your lifestyle?

21. 91% of the surveyed Kenyans said the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle
More urban dwellers (93%) than their rural counterparts (89%) stated the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle
More males (92%) than females (90%) said the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle
Has the escalating fuel and food prices had any effect on your lifestyle?
Those who said the escalating fuel and food prices had had an effect on their lifestyle?

22. Nearly all of Kenyans surveyed indicated the escalating fuel and food prices had an effect on their lifestyles
The incidence of those who said the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle was high across all regions
North Eastern and Eastern regions recording the highest incidence level at 96% and 95% respectively;
Central province had the lowest incidence level on the same at 83%
Has the escalating fuel and food prices had any effect on your lifestyle?
Base 2400

23. 40% of Kenyans mainly attribute the increased general cost of living to the escalating fuel & food prices
Spending more on fuel and food has resulted in;
Tight household budgets leaving no room for engaging in leisure activities and purchasing luxury items
Inability to save for future ventures
Reduction in business opportunities due to customers’ unwilling ness to spend
Relocation especially in urban areas due to inability to consistently pay rent
n = 2184
If yes, what effect has escalating fuel and food prices had on your lifestyle?

24. On the other hand, the pessimistic lot were mainly drawn from;
Overall, 53% of the surveyed respondents indicated that they are optimistic that the Kenyan economy will improve
Majority of those that are optimistic that the Kenyan economy will improve were mainly drawn from;
North Eastern and Eastern regions both at 59%;
On the other hand, the pessimistic lot were mainly drawn from;
Nyanza and Western recording the lowest incidence levels at 44% and 46% respectively
Most optimistic
Least optimistic
On a scale of 1-5, how optimistic are you that the Kenyan economy will improve?

25. Demographics

26. REGION
Base 2400

27. GENDER
Base 2400

28. AGE
Base 2400

29. EDUCATION LEVEL
Base 2400

30. LOCATION
Base 2400

31. About Infotrak

32. About Infotrak
Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa.
The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand.
In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.