1. Ireland in 2040: Managing change over a generation
Our Public Service 2020 and implementation of the NPF Dr. Seán Ó'Riordáin and Ms. Ruth Minogue

2. Public Management Reform in Ireland
Critics might suggest...
Many features remain embedded upon 19th century configurations...Education, local government, policing and justice
Rural driven policy or a lack of?
On-going management re-configuration but limited structural change
Highly disaggregated with limited co-governance and interface between thematic policy and spatial development
Under developed systems of accountability based upon policy outcome transparency
Concealed Administration

3. Public Management Reform in Ireland: OECD Review
Focus on the outcomes of public service reform
Embed an evidence and data-driven approach linking expenditure and reform
Strengthen governance arrangements to widen ownership of the reform framework and better define the roles of the centre and the sectors in achieving reform
Drive public service innovation

4. The Opportunities
Above average performance of the public service a critical strength

5. A relatively low cost factor in the overall economy

6.  A Little Background 
Population 1841: 6.5 million 1961: 2.6 million 1996: 3.6 million 2016: 4.7 million (CSO forecasted for 2031 in July 1999) 2026: c million 2036: c million 2040: million
Overall Employment
million
million
million

7. Population by country of birth
Country of birth Number 1946 % 1996 % 2016 % Ireland United Kingdom Rest of the EU USA Rest of the World

8. The Public Service-Past and present
Public Service Employment
Increase/decrease
Population m m +1M (27%)
Civil Service           31,562       38, ,921 (22%)
Defence    ,610          9, ,006 (-24%)
Education ,415    , ,859 (60%)
Health    ,726     109, ,612 (57%)
Justice ,931      13, , (16%)
Local Gov ,900        27, (2%)
State Bodies          9,163        12, , (42%)

9. The Public Service-Future?
Public Service Employment
? ?
Population m m m
Civil Service           38, , ,300
Defence    , ,100
Education , , ,000
Health    , , ,000
Justice  13, , ,400
Local Gov    27, , ,800
State Bodies           12, , ,200
Total , , ,800
Plus 4,600 public servants a year….not including replacements…budgeted over 5,000 net in 2019

10. But what about retirements…
Ageing Population up 1 million by 2040
Almost 73% of the Civil Service are 40 years of age or over

11.  Across all sectors…. 
 In the order of 25,000 civil servants to retire by 2040
The number of retirements are expected to grow from approximately 1,750 in 2019 to a peak of 2,525 in 2025, and gradually fall thereafter to approximately 2,220 in 2028.
The average age of a person working in Local Authorities in Ireland is 51. (PWC 2015)
Approx 33% of local government staff to retire by 2025 i.e. over 9,000
21% of HSE staff (14,000) are over 55 years,
with an average age of 44.6 years

12. And political representation….?
President
Councillors
TDs
Senators

13. Ireland in the coming times
Planning for the 4th Industrial Revolution, the internet of things and the advancing of 3D Printing, etc.
Ageing, fully engaged, society?
Artificial intelligence, robotics and the interface between the two in a public service environment
Skills, new or renewed?
So a new public service…
To include the capacity to solve complex problems, people management, human factors and the interface with technology, sustaining quality services that are people centred, creativity and active listening

14. On-going Challenges for the Public Service
Population spread across the island of Ireland?
Cross border corridor development in light of a Brexit?
Civic engagement and participation
Adequate/uneven evidence base
Understanding intangible features of identity into a rigorous policy framework
Integration of spatial planning with the management of the environment in a growing economy
Competing demands of an urbanised state and rural development
Need for tools to allow for proper policy development

15. Public Administration: The Proposed Response
Through NPF/NDP and the Public Service Reform Framework the focus is on:
Having both rural and urban competences but now recognition of the need for gateway/metropolitan institutional settings underpinned by 21st century structures
Building of an informed debate on how the public service is organised
Increased socio-economic analysis in institutional reform
Citizen centred service delivery
Performance and management
Leadership and transition
Moving to a more outcomes-driven focus to ensure results for the public;
Increasing collaboration across the public service
Developing a more evidence-driven and responsive approach.
But is this enough?

16.  So ….
Clearly a major challenge to align the growth of the population and the related changing demographic characteristics to delivery of the National Planning Framework/National Development Plan
This means a clear view on the transition of our public services from a focus on austerity and cut backs to one which is about delivery of the capacity and resources to meet the demands of a growing urbanized population
Change and reform of the Public Service is critical if Ireland is to take advantage of better educated, experienced and growing diverse population alongside 4th Industrial developments

17.  Therefore….?
Not only should spending be coordinated with spatial planning as in the NPF and NDP but crucially…
Public Service Reform needs to be coordinated with NPF and NDP over the extent of both
Need for tools to allow for proper policy development

18. A Mad Thought….it could be more challenging…
1849: c3.1 million in the Netherlands 2016: c17 million …..so would Ireland have c35 million?