1. Climate Change and impact on life style in Southern Africa:
Peace and Security
Dr. Florian Krampe

2. SIPRI’s Climate Change and Risk Program
Climate-related Security Risks
Security implications of Climate Responses

3. SIPRI’s Climate Change and Risk Program
Overarching aim
Deepen knowledge on climate- related security risks.
Produce knowledge on how policy organisations are responding to those risks.
Provide suggestions on how (policy) actors can strengthen efficient and sustainable responses.
Climate-related security risks: three major forms: humanitarian crisis, affects critical infrastructure (which has repercussions for societies functions and crisis management actors), and impacts violent conflicts (primarily through indirect effects).
Security – a comprehensive understanding of security, which are in lines with e.g. Swedish policy. Key: the concept of security involves different dimensions; human, society, state, and climate impacts span across these.

4. Key Messages Enhance systematic and relevant knowledge
Improve risk assessments
Study what works
Develop organizational structures to strengthen coordination
Bridge-building bodies/institutional development
Strengthen incentives to work across silos
Identify common concepts and reconciling different discourses
Conflict-sensitive climate work and climate-sensitive conflict prevention

5. Climate-related Security Risks

6. Climate-related Security Risks
A Human Security centered approach
comprehensive security approach – human, community, state, and international security
Climate Change simultaneously undermines the security of humans, communities, states, as well as the international system,
Effects different policy areas, such as foreign policy, defense, development, economy, and environment.
Such a comprehensive security approach is needed because climate-related security risks are multifaceted, i.e. involving different consequences, such as drought, flooding, and sea-level rise, and can simulta- neously undermine the security of different reference objects, i.e., human, community, state, international system, environ- ment, and ecology [13–15].

7. Linking Climate Change and Conflict
Climate change effects on different social, economic and political processes increases the probability of armed conflict
Mechanisms linking Climate Change and Conflict
it leads to a deterioration in people’s livelihoods
it influences the tactical considerations of armed groups;
elites use it to exploit social vulnerabilities and resources; and
it displaces people, increases levels of migration and changes traditional mobility patterns.
Worsening livelihood conditions
Entry costs to conflict
Mobilization
Increased migration
Internal/external
Rural-urban
Changes in mobility patterns
Nordqvist, P., & Krampe, F. (2018). Climate change and violent conflict: Sparse evidence from South Asia and South East Asia. SIPRI Insights in Peace and Security.
van Baalen, S., & Mobjörk, M. (2017). Climate Change and Violent Conflict in East Africa: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research to Probe the Mechanisms. International Studies Review.
Mobjörk, M., Gustafsson, M.-T., Sonnsjö, H., van Baalen, S., Dellmuth, L. M., & Bremberg, N. (2016). Climate-Related Security Risks. Solna: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

8. Political System and Governance Matter
Outcome
Conflict / Social Unrest / Political Violence
Stability and Sustainability
Quality of Governance
Social Economic and Political Impact
Climate-Related Change

10. Relevant to look at climate exposure, but also a countires fragility
Source: USAID The Intersection Of Global Fragility And Climate Risks

11. Climate Exposure and Fragility Risks
Unequal effects accross the region
Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Angola
Yet, responses need to be transnational. Insecurity in one country affects other countries, e.g. through migration.

12. Security Implications of Climate Action
Conflict-Sensetive Climate Action

13. (Swatuk, Wirkus, Krampe, Thomas, & da Silva, 2018)
The Boomerang Effect
“the emergence of largely unanticipated and unintended negative consequences of addressing climate change on local actors that result in negative feedbacks on state actors”
(Swatuk, Wirkus, Krampe, Thomas, & da Silva, 2018)

14. Conflict-sensitive climate action and ideally peace-promoting climate action.
State A or Peacebuilding actor A is implementing Climate Action in location A or B:
what are the (social/economic/ecological/political) drivers behind a particular development or climate intervention?
What was the decision-making process that led to this specific climate action or development intervention?
What are the expected outcomes from climate action?
2. CA causes maladaptation or deviates from expected outcome on the local level
• What are the LLSEs (social/economic/ecological/political) of the action and are any of these unintended and/or unanticipated and negative in consequence?
3. State-level boomerang effects (SLBEs) affecting peace prospects for actor A or B
• What are the boomerang effects felt by the state and/or international peacebuilding actors in terms of economic stability, state authority, ecological sustainability?

15. Responses and Ways Forward

16. Responses & Ways Forward
Inform Political and Security Sectors
Integrated Climate Risk Assessments
Opportunities & Synergies
Strengthen regional collaboration
Integrated Climate Risk Assessments (climate, politics, economy, social)
Bring climate-related security risks into the political and security relevant offices
Be guided by opportunities and synergies
Strengthen regional collaboration (Governments, Academia, Civil society, Private sector)

17.
Dr. Florian Krampe 
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL  PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Signalistgatan 9 SE Solna, Sweden
Phone:  
Staff webpage:    Twitter:  LinkedIn: se.linkedin.com/in/krampe