1. SUMMER “FINISH IN FOUR” INITIATIVE – FALL UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 13, 2018

2. FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT

3. FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT

4. FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT

5. BENCHMARK GRAD RATES (IPEDS)

6. BENCHMARK GRAD RATES (IPEDS)

7. BENCHMARK GRAD RATES (IPEDS)
73%

8. FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT
Target Grad Rate = 73%

9. Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model
FACTORS AFFECTING GRAD RATE
Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model
Beta
On-Track Status (Year 1)
2.853
Number of DFW’s
1.987
Decision Type
1.783
Elasticity of Program
1.603
New York State Resident
1.558
Undeclared Program
1.304
First-Year Nazareth GPA
1.280
Student Athlete
1.251
Campus Residency Status
1.208
High School GPA
1.172
High School to Nazareth GPA Comparison
1.158
AP Credits Brought In
1.092
Grade in ACS Course
1.071
SAT Score
1.044
Family Contribution
1.004
Date Deposit Received
.966
Attempted Credits First Term
.934
Grade in English Writing
.913
Academic Program Affinity
.906
Has Minor?
.796
HEOP/EXEL/YS Program
.702
Student Loan Debt
.695
Date Application Received
.664
Number of Campus Visits
.555
Unmet Financial Need
.306
Constant
.125

10. Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model
FACTORS AFFECTING GRAD RATE
Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model
Beta
On-Track Status (Year 1)
2.853
Number of DFW’s
1.987
Decision Type
1.783
Elasticity of Program
1.603
New York State Resident
1.558
Undeclared Program
1.304
First-Year Nazareth GPA
1.280
Student Athlete
1.251
Campus Residency Status
1.208
High School GPA
1.172
High School to Nazareth GPA Comparison
1.158
AP Credits Brought In
1.092
Grade in ACS Course
1.071
SAT Score
1.044
Family Contribution
1.004
Date Deposit Received
.966
Attempted Credits First Term
.934
Grade in English Writing
.913
Academic Program Affinity
.906
Has Minor?
.796
HEOP/EXEL/YS Program
.702
Student Loan Debt
.695
Date Application Received
.664
Number of Campus Visits
.555
Unmet Financial Need
.306
Constant
.125

11. Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model
FACTORS AFFECTING GRAD RATE
Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model
Beta
On-Track Status (Year 1)
2.853
Number of DFW’s
1.987
Decision Type
1.783
Elasticity of Program
1.603
New York State Resident
1.558
Undeclared Program
1.304
First-Year Nazareth GPA
1.280
Athlete
1.251
Campus Residency Status
1.208
High School GPA
1.172
High School to Nazareth GPA Comparison
1.158
AP Credits Brought In
1.092
Grade in ACS Course
1.071
SAT Score
1.044
Family Contribution
1.004
Date Deposit Received
.966
Attempted Credits First Term
.934
Grade in English Writing
.913
Academic Program Affinity
.906
Has Minor?
.796
HEOP/EXEL/YS Program
.702
Student Loan Debt
.695
Date Application Received
.664
Number of Campus Visits
.555
Unmet Financial Need
.306
Constant
.125
15 credits…
30…
45…
60…
75…
90…

12. COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)
ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE)
COHORT PERSISTENCE ( )

13. COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)
ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE)
COHORT PERSISTENCE ( )

14. COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)
ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE)
COHORT PERSISTENCE ( )

15. COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)
ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE)
COHORT PERSISTENCE ( )

16. ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE)
COHORT PERSISTENCE ( )
Staying on-track more than doubles the 4-year grad rate

17. GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL
SO, WHAT IF OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN GET BACK ON TRACK AS SOPHOMORES?
OFF Track
ON Track

18. OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR
GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL
SO, WHAT IF OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN GET BACK ON TRACK AS SOPHOMORES?
OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS
OFF Track
ON Track
STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

19. OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR
GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL
SO, WHAT IF OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN GET BACK ON TRACK AS SOPHOMORES?
OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS
OFF Track
ON Track
STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

20. OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR
GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL
OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS
+60%
OFF Track
ON Track
STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

21. GETTING STUDENTS BACK ON-TRACK HAS A HA-YUUUGE
GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL
GETTING STUDENTS BACK ON-TRACK HAS A HA-YUUUGE
EFFECT
OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS
+60%
OFF Track
ON Track
STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

22. GETTING BACK ON TRACK HOW ARE STUDENTS GETTING BACK ON TRACK?
SOURCE OF CREDITS
Summer Enroll
Overload (Soph)
Delayed AP Credits

23. CREDITS TRANSFERRED IN FROM ELSEWHERE
GETTING BACK ON TRACK
HOW ARE STUDENTS GETTING BACK ON TRACK?
SOURCE OF CREDITS
Summer Enroll
Overload (Soph)
CREDITS TRANSFERRED IN FROM ELSEWHERE
Delayed AP Credits

24. WHY ARE THEY GOING SOMEWHERE ELSE???
In deciding to take courses at another institution or when considering transferring, how important were each of the following reasons?*
Tuition was less expensive
70%
To fulfill general education requirements
69%
The location was more convenient
51%
To have a more convenient class schedule
50%
To complete my degree quicker
42%
Felt like I didn't "fit in" at my college
34%
Had money problems and could no longer afford to attend college
23%
Wasn't doing as well academically as I expected
*Percent replying "essential" or "very important"

25. SO WHAT’S YOUR GREAT PLAN???
PROPOSAL: CREATE AN ACCELERATED SHORT-TERM RESIDENTIAL SUMMER SESSION FOR OUR OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN TO GET THEM BACK ON TRACK
3-WEEK CONCENTRATE SUMMER TERM
RESIDENTIAL FULL-DAY CURRICULUM
LIVE IN THE RESIDENCE HALLS
3-CREDIT PEQ COURSE (A.M.)
1-CREDIT EXPERIENTIAL COURSE (P.M.)
WEEKEND SOCIAL EVENTS

26. CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN PILOT:
WHO IS ELIGIBLE???
CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN PILOT:
FIRST-TIME FRESHMEN ENTERING THEIR SECOND YEAR
MUST BE IN GOOD ACADEMIC STANDING
(GPA > 2.0)
MUST HAVE COMPLETED BETWEEN 24 & 28 CREDITS BY THE END OF FIRST YEAR*
*includes any AP credits earned

27. IN 2008-2016 COHORT SAMPLE PILOT GROUP 403 STUDENTS FIT THE PROFILE
TOTAL OF 9.4% OF ENTIRE SAMPLE
TYPICAL COHORT OF 520 STUDENTS  STUDENTS
IF SUCCESSFUL, CAN BE SCALED UP

28. POTENTIAL IMPACT ON GRAD RATE
PILOT GROUP
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON GRAD RATE
OF 403 STUDENTS WHO FIT PROFILE, 38.7% FINISHED IN FOUR YEARS
WITH 49 STUDENTS IN PILOT, 19 EXPECT TO GRADUATE WITHOUT PROGRAM
IF INCREASE RATE TO 80.7%, THEN WE PREDICT 39 WOULD GRADUATE IN 4 YRS
POTENTIAL +4% LIFT TO OVERALL RATE

29. GOALS Improve on-track credits for cohort
Promote awareness of and interest in engagement opportunities
Advance career exploration
Develop academic planning skills
Foster sense of belonging
Build connections with peers, faculty, and staff

30. 1 week between end of summer experience and start of fall term
TIMING
3-WEEK EXPERIENCE
Last 2 weeks of Summer B
Extend past Summer B by 1 week
1 week between end of summer experience and start of fall term
Opportunities for social programming and connections
Athletes and student leaders on campus
2019:
Start on 7/29/19
End on 8/16/19
Fall term starts 8/26/19

31. DESIGN IMMERSIVE LIVING LEARNING COMMUNITY MODEL 3 CREDIT PEQ COURSE
1 CREDIT SKILL BUILDING COURSE
INTEGRATE
EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING
COLLABORATIVE LEARNING
CULMINATING PROJECT (MINI-CARS)
SOCIAL PROGRAMMING

32. PEQ’S NEEDED Visual & Performing Arts - 18 History - 17
2016 Cohort
(40 students)
2017 Cohort
(24 students)
Visual & Performing Arts - 18
History - 17
Literature - 17
Nat. Sci. & lab - 15
Philosophy - 12
Religious Studies - 12
Social Science - 12
Math - 8
Visual & Performing Arts - 21
Literature - 16
History - 15
Philosophy - 16
Religious Studies - 15
Nat. Sci. & lab - 11
Math - 14
Social Science - 3
From Linda: PEQs in VPA, Literature, and History for certain.  I would avoid natural sciences and social sciences, as there are major-specific PEQ requirements for these for many programs

33. DISCUSSION
Questions?
Suggestions?