1. The fluidity of party systems

2. Introduction
For several years I have been somewhat unhappy with various governance measures
The measures of corruption are problematic both in terms of validity and reliability (not to mention in terms of how they are computed)
The measures of stability are also problematic because they treat as a single entity ‘stability’ things that are very different in nature

3. Intro-2
The political instability caused by terrorism is different from that which is caused by electoral violence or by civil war as to how resources should be allocated
Similarly the political stability secured with iron fist by an authoritarian regime is different from the one that is secured by the institutional legitimacy that democratic institutions enjoy when they are properly institutionalized

4. Intro-3
Hence, to cope with my unhappiness with the existing measures, I have worked on parallel research lines
A) to criticize other measures
B) to develop better measures
Today I’d like to focus on one of the measures that Zim Nwokora and I have created
I want to show how is computed, why I believe is a good measure, and how it can be used

5. From instability to party system change
Instead of focusing on a broad political instability, I prefer to focus on the instability of a one of the constitutive elements of a political system that is the party system
A party system is a system that results from the patterns of inter- party competition, that is from the way parties adjust and respond to each other’s presence

6. Party systems and party system change
Party system: the genetic v the functional approach
Depending on what approach one adopts, one conceives change ina different way
Party change
Electoral change
Change in the cleavage structure
Change in the functioning of the party system

7. Sartori’s typology
For Duverger there were 3 party systems: one, two and multi-party systems
Sartori revised this taxonomy by identifying three party system with one relevant party (one, hegemonic and predominant), two, moderate pluralism and polarized pluralism (and atomized)

8. Capturing change at the party system level
Whenever one type of party system (one, hegemonic, predominant, two, moderate pluralism, polarized pluralism) is replaced by another type, we have, from a functional point of view, a party system change
But counting change or its frequency only captures one aspect of party system changeability or instability, but neglects other(s)-frequency
The change between a predominant two party system and moderate pluralism involves a smaller change than what we could have between a one party and an atomized party system-scope
The fact, finally, that a party system in its historical development adopts a larger number of types makes it more changeable than a system that adopts a narrower number of types-variety

9. Index of fluidity Fluidity: Frequency * Scope * variety Where
frequency: number of party system changes/number of elections
Scope: distance between the most different types
Variety: number of different types adopted

10. Our dataset
By analyzing all the electoral results of all countries in SSA from their independence to the most recent election held, we have constructed a large database to track party system change and instability in the continent

11. Reliability-1

12. Reliability-2

13. Reliability-3

14. Reliability-4

15. Some findings

16. More findings
In our bridging the divide we reported that our measures corelate strongly with the measures developed by other scholars
In a piece that is currently under review we show how increases in the instability of East African party systems undermine the quality of democracy in each of the countries under consideration
(…)

17. The way ahead The way ahead will develop along two parallel lines
1) we need to develop a better understanding of what are the main determinants of party system change and instability in SSA:
2) we need to do more and better analyses to assess what are not only the political, but also the social, developmental and economic consequnces of PSC.