1. THE ANNUAL REPORT Department of Energy
Profs Lloyd & Uken
Energy Institute
Cape Peninsula University of Technology
PPC Energy October 2012

2. How did the Department do?
It passed!
It scored 31%
That means it got more than twice as much wrong as it got right!
As the Headmaster would say “Could do better – much better!”
Let’s look at some examples
PPC Energy October 2012

3. Our vision
A transformed and sustainable energy sector with universal access to modern energy carriers for all by 2014.
Improving our energy mix by having 30% clean energy by 2025.
Good! But the first is not achievable, AND
Something is missing from both
ENOUGH ENERGY!
PPC Energy October 2012

4. Enough energy? IRP2010 was approved by Cabinet in March 2011
The Department has a clear remit
It was presented with a roadmap for meeting the demand forecast
PPC Energy October 2012

5. Enough energy? ?
PPC Energy October 2012

6. Enough energy?
Rounds 1 & 2 of REIPP have set in motion the 2100MW of installed renewable energy
Good - - BUT
It will only yield on average about 500MW
Our demand goes up by 800MW annually
There is progress on 3200MW nuclear
OK - - but slow!
PPC Energy October 2012

7. Enough energy? No progress on 4320MW of conventional energy
Which would yield 3600MW on average
Enough for over 4 years growth
Give the Department 500MW renewable, 1100MW nuclear, 1600MW total
Score 1600/ ( ) = 31%
PPC Energy October 2012

8. But why worry? Can’t we get by with saving electricity?
And can’t we improve the efficiency of use?
Yes - - we can, BUT
We need to grow the economy
And that means more energy
PPC Energy October 2012

9. That means more energy
There is a DIRECT relation between the wealth of a nation and the amount of energy it uses
It is one of the strongest economic relationships known
The International Energy Agency uses it to make forecasts
Their predictions of 25 years ago are within 10%
PPC Energy October 2012

10. That means more energy
PPC Energy October 2012

11. That’s why we worry Being short of energy means
Being short of growth
Being short of jobs
Being poor
Being ill-fed
Having a short life
That’s why we worry about a Department that only just passes
PPC Energy October 2012

12. And the long-term vision?
Improving our energy mix by having 30% clean energy by 2025.
Good - - but
All the Department’s effort goes into producing clean energy
We need to worry about HAVING clean energy
PPC Energy October 2012

13. Having clean energy Means having clear air over the Highveld in winter
Which means addressing the domestic use of coal
Which means having far fewer dying of CO poisoning
And the Department is making no progress on this
PPC Energy October 2012

14. Having clean energy
Means being able to cook and heat the home without indoor air pollution
Which means affordable sources of clean energy
And cheap electricity isn’t the answer
LP gas might be
And the Department is making minimal progress on this
PPC Energy October 2012

15. Having clean energy Means having less shack fires
Which destroy about homes annually
Means burning less children
Spend a morning at the Red Cross hospital and you will see the problem
And the Department is making no effort in this direction
PPC Energy October 2012

16. Having clean energy ? Means having clean fuels for our cars
And the Department is making slow progress on this
Score 1.5 out of 5 – 30% ?
PPC Energy October 2012

17. Is a pass good enough? There is some basis for our marking
Could the Department do better?
Should it do better?
Does it really recognize how important energy is to our development?
Does it really understand how important energy is to our people’s wellbeing?
You be the judge!
PPC Energy October 2012

18. Thank you for your kind attention!
PPC Energy October 2012