1. A short introduction into downscaling
Hans von Storch
Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center Germany
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

2. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Overview
The perspective of anthropogenic climate change: - needs for studying the sensitivity of the global system, and
- the needs for adaptation on the regional and local scale.
Tools to do so: Global quasi-realistic climate models.
Limitation in spatial resolution.
Need for Downscaling: empirical and dynamical.
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

3. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
The expectation of anthropogenic climate change – little doubt left.
Different scenarios describing plausible, possible and different futures.
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

4. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

5. TAR-“Consensus” on precip change in 2100
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

6. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Response: adaptation and mitigation
Mitigation (reduction of emissions) as much a we can afford (economically, socially); long term effort; long term gains; international efforts
Adaptation to present extreme events – short term effort, local effort; useful if future extreme events are getting worse.
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

7. Dynamical / empirical downscaling
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

8. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
2 Examples
Dynamical Downscaling
Rockel&Woth
Empirical Downscaling
2CO2
Maak&von Storch
control
Projected change of flowering date of Galantis Nivalis in Northern Germany (days)
Change in total number of storm peak events (in %) from to simulated by a RCM/A2
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall

9. Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
And now …
Frederik Wetterhall on
Statistical downscaling
of precipitation in Sverige och China
Uppsala,
30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall