1. Adrian V. Gheorghe C4UC and Old Dominion University Norfolk, Virginia Assisted by Hal Warren

5. Risk Perception Black Swan Events Feral Events Low Probabilities – High Consequences

6. The distortion of the Earth's magnetic field caused by a corona mass ejection (CME) (p, e)

7. A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms A rapidly changing geomagnetic field over large regions will induce Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (i.e. GIC a quasi-DC current) to flow in the continental interconnected Electric Power Grids Storm causes Geomagnetic Field Disturbances from Electrojet Current that couples to Power Systems

9. Damaged GSU Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) flow has potential to cause wide-spread catastrophic damage to key Generator Step UP (GSU) transformers Causing Restoration Problems Salem Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Failure, March 89 Increased hum from magnetostriction (the slight change of length exhibited by a ferromagnetic object when magnetized)

10. Station 3 Gen Transformer 4 HV winding failure Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5 evidence of overheating Courtesy Eskom, Makhosi, T., G. Coetzee Overview of South Africa EHV Transformer Failures due to Oct-Nov 2003 Geomagnetic Storms Failures linked to Long Duration / Low Intensity GIC Exposure

11. Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) effects Generates an Earth-surface potential (1-10 V/km) Drives a quasi-DC ground current (10-100A ~DC) Duration 2-4 hours High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) from nuclear weapon effects are more intense 10X voltage (10-100 V/km) 10X current (~1000A ~DC)(0.1 Hz) 10-15 minutes/burst

14. More efficient transmission of electricity Quicker restoration of electricity after power disturbances caused by Space Weather, severe storms, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks, etc. Reduced operations and management costs for utilities, and ultimately lower power costs for consumers Reduced peak demand, which will also help lower electricity rates Increased integration of large-scale renewable energy systems Better integration of customer-owner power generation systems, including renewable energy systems That is, a smarter grid will add resiliency to our electric power system

18. Energy-Plus-Information Within each company: operations, maintenance… Along the supply chain Prosumers with other stakeholders Among prosumers/companies For market transactions E Energy Info E I (E)+(I) supportassociationisolationblending (E+I) digitization T

19. Information Communications (IC) synonymous term for Information and Communication Systems (ICS)

20. NIST Smart Grid Framework

22. If you want to hit a country severely you hit its power and water supplies. Cyber technology can do this without shooting a single bullet. Isaac Ben-Israel Israeli military scientist, general and politician, currently the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, both at the Israel Ministry of Science and Technology

23. ICS security requirements not always explicit Standards lagging behind (IEC, ISO 7799) Vulnerabilities During whole life-cycle: design process, implementation, operation, maintenance. ICS security policies and management Threats: All on-line systems are exposed to malicious actions (terrorism, organized crime, activists) Connectiveness: gate to insider threats Complexity: human errors, systemic failures Use of technologies with improper protection (wireless, internet …) ©2009 A. Gheorghe All Rights Reserved

26. We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. Albert Einstein That is, anyone's knowledge and understanding is limited to his own experience, training, education, and information sources Therefore, we must continue the advancement of science and knowledge, which expands the inventory of possible solutions to any problem often in COMPLEX ways

28. 9-11 terrorist attacks on U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Need for risk assessment and management tools to protect the nations critical infrastructure Desire for spreadsheet table showing risks for many different targets and many different kinds of attacks/failures 28

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31. Threats: weapons of mass destruction (chem/bio/nuke); physical attack/disruption/failure; cyber attack/disruption/failure; major accidents; insider/outsider malevolent attack; natural disasters System Vulnerabilities: physical; human; cyber; intellectual; dependencies; interdependencies Consequences: loss of life; economic loss; environmental degradation; loss of property; loss of reputation/morale 31

32. Consists of a suite of interdependent infrastructure models Simulates propagation of disruptions across infrastructures Enables analysis of consequences in a complex system of systems Offers risk-informed decision support to help identify investment strategies and other options to manage risk Source: B. Bus h 32

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36. A non-profit and non-partisan think tank that: 1) Offers products and services to solve clients problems in the area of global change and risk We provide insight to our constituents in a time of increasing complexity and decreasing understanding We help our constituents understand the ripple effects of their actions and how specific changes, events, and phenomena affect them We do this by building on an existing massive intellectual and financial investment in systems models and deep data assets, cross-connected by a unique software framework We use these assets in conjunction with an advanced decision-making tool and integrated visual analytics which allows our constituents an intuitive grasp of impact, alternative paths, and implications 2 ) Conducts independent research in partnership with other scientific organizations Applied Research in Modeling and Simulation Research in Global Complexity and Interconnectedness 3) Provides education and training to raise awareness on The value of wide thinking Global change and risks in times of increasing complexity and decreasing understanding The ripple effects of actions and how specific changes, events, and phenomena affect them 36

37. 37 FOCUS AREASSERVICES AND PRODUCTS Client Delivery (business sustainment / money making activities) SERVICES –Problem formulation –Team facilitation –Decision support –Solution communication –Investigate of specific Issues –Strategic reviews to Identify formerly unseen problems on the horizon –Stress tests of strategic plans –Watch services to monitor how these problems change over time –Facilitation of access to our models & data –Subscription Service to our models and data PRODUCTS –Software (new models) –Access to our models & data –Frameworks and approaches R & D –Model development –Database development –Tool building and development –White papers –Applied research in modeling and simulation –Research in global complexity and interconnectedness Education (non-profit activities) –Education and awareness for general public –Executive training –Training modules –Keynote and motivational speeches

38. C 4 UC team is comprised of a dedicated and accomplished team of individuals that care about the mission and the consequences of no action. 38

39. Dr. Richard H.F. Jackson, Chief Executive Officer Founding Director, FIATECH and former Director, Manufacturing Engineering, NIST David M. Hammond, Chief Operating Officer Senior Program Manager, US Coast Guard, Co-Founder and Executive Board Member, buildingSMART alliance, NIBS, and Co-Chair, Emerging IT, FFC, Natl Academy of Science W. Bradley Holtz, Chief Strategy Officer co-founder & Chief Executive Officer, Cyon Research Dr. John Cummings, Chief Scientist former Director of R&D, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Department of Homeland Security Dr. Adrian V. Gheorghe, Intl Science Director Senior Research Scientist, National Centers of System of Systems Engineering, and Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Dr. Miriam Heller, Dir. of Model and Data Integrity Founder/Principal of MHITech, Systems and Adjunct Professor, Energy and Climate Program, Johns Hopkins University, Dr. Phares Noel, Constituent Advocate Adjunct Professor Computer Science, U of Michigan- Flint, and former Platform Executive, Advance Manufacturing Engineering Chrysler Corporation Dr. David Ullman, Director of Decision Science founder, Robust Decisions Carolyn Castillo, Business Planning Former Program Management Specialist, Boeing and Senior Examiner for the California Council for Excellence Joseph Juhnke, Director of Visualization President & Chief Executive Officer, Tanagram Silvana Nani, Director of Business Development Serial entrepreneur (domestic and international), former associate at Booz Allen, former managing partner at Domus-USA Don Richardson, Outreach former Senior Director of Global Innovation and PLM, Microsoft Mike Riddle, Director of Meta-Model Architecture author of the software on which AutoCAD was based (Interact) and co-founder, Autodesk Brian Seitz, Systems Engineer former Chief Process Manager and Architect of IBMs marketing process, and former Architecture and Methodology Senior Technologist, Microsoft 39

40. Sandia National Labs (MOU) Argonne National Lab (MOU) Santa Fe Institute Stanford University MIT Los Alamos National Lab (Pending) International Partners? … 40

41. Maryland Incorporation Filing [completed] IRS EIN [completed] D&B Number [completed] Establish Bank Account [completed] 501 (c) (3) filing IRS Form 1023 Filing (27mos) [in progress] Intellectual Property Agreements [in progress] Web Presence 41

42. Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly 42

43. The Globalizing Economy The Demographics of Discord The New Players Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty? Growing Potential for Conflict Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges? Power-Sharing in a Multipolar World 43

44. Three important risks in focus: The macroeconomic imbalances nexus The illegal economy nexus The water-food-energy nexus Five risks to watch: Cyber-security Demographic challenges Resource security Retrenchment from globalization Weapons of mass destruction 44

45. The changing dynamics of energy demand and resource availability Climate change and the drive towards renewable energy The risks associated with a new technology revolution Risks to energy and transport infrastructure Challenges and risks for global businesses 45

46. Establish relationships with deep silo knowledge partners Modeling and analysis Critical data and datasets Subject-matter experts Build internal expertise Generalists and consultants Analysts Subject-matter experts when needed Operational team Get started Solve some problems Write some papers and thought pieces Seek and earn recognition 46 C 4 UC team can leverage the collective expertise, knowledge of the systems and players, and our Vision for a viable future to provide insight to decision makers and increase awareness and improve education among all audiences !

47. Focus on Critical infrastructure systems Interdependencies between coupled infrastructures Performance measures for decision-making 47 Types of Interdependencies Type of Failure Infrastructure Characteristics State of Operatio n Context/Performance Coupling/ResponseBehavior Loose/Tight Linear/Comple x Escalating Cascading Common Cause Spatial Temporal Operational Organizational Economic Legal/ Regulatory Technical Social/Political Physical Cyber Logical Geographic Adaptive Inflexible Stressed/ Disrupted Repair/ Restoration Norm al Business Public Policy Security EHS Coupled Systems Framework (after Rinaldi et al., 2002)

48. System Dynamics Models (CIPDSS) Agent Based Models (TRANSIMS) Economic Models Input-Output Economic Models Computable General Equilibrium Supply Chain (SuperNetworks) Probability, Risk & Decision Theoretic Models Sector Specific Models Hydrological/Hydraulic Models Transportation Models Network flows (Integrated Transportation) Land Use Models Continuum Models Multiscale, multiphysics Models … 48 *

49. Building an inventory of modeling tools Sandia models: transportation, energy, economic, financial, chemical, agriculture and food, health, or integrated Attributes: Product Name, Type of Capability, Purpose, Use 17 active + 4 inactive models 2 active Sandia models for use: FASTMAP for situational awareness and mapping; other is workbench supporting FASTMAP; proprietary data 19 Models can be run by Sandia with caveats Reference Management System 49

50. Depends on model type and sector Measured/sensed, estimated, projected, expert opinion, etc. Physical assets: spatial, temporal, properties, etc. Economic: resources/goods, pricing, costs, elasticities, demand, use supply, etc. Survey data: census, health, household, etc. … Sandia examples Rail data: Bureau of Transportation Statistics-Commodity Flow Survey, Association of American Railroads-Class I Railroad Statistics Air data: Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) of domestic passenger airline tickets Chemical data: Directory of Chemical Producers from SRI Consulting Banking and finance data: FDIC institutions geolocated, depositors, and accounts on deposit … 50

51. WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM

52. July 2003 - M. Heller ©

53. NSF funded $900K + City of Houston $500K System Dynamics Model implemented in PowerSim 26 stocks; 42 flows: 122 auxiliaries, 56 constants and 295 links representing interactions Six components: Inputs, Treatment, Relief Options, Finance, Indicators, User Interface Model use and evaluation Scenario analysis varying number of SSOs, annual complaints, wastewater fund behavior Clarifier option dominated all others in all performance variables Way ahead: SimSUWER as foundation for Baltimore Citys SSO problem Add climate change impacts, TMDLs issues, green infrastructure options Enhance with independencies to capture water-energy nexus effects Engage stakeholders for Robust Decision Making 53

54. Why run simulations? To support making decisions. But, cant simulation results give the optimum solution? Maybe in your perfect world, but imperfect models are used to predict the future The science that provides the data to the models is often uncertain Some things are not really modelable There are many stakeholders When you cannot measure it…your knowledge is of meager and unsatisfactory kind Lord Kelvin Oh, well, if you cannot measure, measure anyhow. Dr. Frank Knight Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr

55. So what if there are many stakeholders? They all value different things. These different value sets must be honored What does it take to get stakeholder buy-in? To make the decision stick you need to develop their buy-n The stakeholders each interpret and believe the results of the simulations in his/her own context

56. 56 CLIENTS PARTNERS (Science Community) PARTNERS (Universities & Organizations) STAKEHOLDERS (Strategic Partners) ORGANIZATIONS PUBLIC Non For Profit ActivitiesSustaining Activities Products & Services P&S, R&D, White Papers R&D, Studies White Papers R&D, Studies White Papers Education & Training Education

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