1. Hourly insulin sensitivity variation studied from clinical ICU data
Stochastic model developed:
probability distribution (likelihood) of coming hour’s insulin sensitivity index can be derived S I
at hour n (
I n
) (mU/L/min)
+1 ( +1 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10 -4
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
potential
probability distribution function
fitted
Figure 1. Fitted hourly SI data and probability distribution function
Figure 2. Three-dimensional stochastic model of SI variability

2. Utilising the derived probability distribution of coming hour’s insulin sensitivity index, probabilistic forecast of change in blood glucose levels can be made, and therefore assist clinical control interventions.
Blood Glucose Forecast
Time
1 ml insulin injection
2 ml insulin injection
4 ml insulin injection
BEST CONTROL
Too much insulin
Hypoglycemia (blood glucose levels too low) can lead to complications and be potentially fetal!!!
Most likely blood glucose forecast
Range of 90% likelihood
Desirable blood glucose level
Hypoglycemic region
inter-quartile probability interval
0.90 probability interval
0.95 probability interval
raw fitted SI
most probable SI forecast