1. Finnish Forest Industries Federation
Sawn softwood
Mr. Matti Sihvonen
Vice President,
Wood products
Finnish Forest Industries Federation

2. Sawn Softwood Market report
Construction
Europe
North America
Japan
Production
Prices
Conclusions

4. Lähde: Euroconstruct 02/2000
Construction in Western Europe
New residential
R & R
Non-residential 5 4 3 2
% change 1
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 -1 -2
01/01/2019
Lähde: Euroconstruct 02/2000

5. UK: Housing starts (1-7 +2 %)
units
Lähde: DETR

6. France: Building permits (1-7/00 +5 %)
units
65 000
60 000
55 000
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000 5 7 9 11
1/99 3 5 7 9 11
1/00 3 5 7
Lähde: DAEI

7. Housing starts USA (1-8 00/99 -3 %)
1000 units
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
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8. Lähde: Japan Wood Prod. Inform. & Res. Center
Housing starts in Japan
1000 units
180
All
Wooden
160
140
1-6/00 +2 %
120
100 80
1-6/00 -6 % 60 40 20
01-95
04-95
07-95
10-95
01-96
04-96
07-96
10-96
01-97
04-97
07-97
10-97
01-98
04-98
07-98
10-98
01-99
04-99
07-99
10-99
01-00
04-00
Lähde: Japan Wood Prod. Inform. & Res. Center

9. Production

10. Sawn saftwood production in major European producer countries
mill. m3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
BALTIC STATES
AUSTRIA
FINLAND
SWEDEN
GERMANY
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000e

11. Total sawn softwood production
in Austria, Baltic states, Finland, Germany and Sweden
mill. m3 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42
1995
1998
1999
Source: ECE / FAO

12. Sawn softwood production in the EU
mill. m3 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57
1995
1996
1997
1998
Source: ECE / FAO

13. Sawn softwood timber production in USA and Canada
mio. m3
mio. m3
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
160
150
140
130
120
110
1990
1996
1998
2000
100
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14. Sawn timber production Finland
+9 %
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000
1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month

15. Sawn Timber production in USA
(1-6 99/00 +3,5 %)
mio. m3
mio. m3 2 4 6 8 8
1999
2000 6 4 2
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16. Source: Council of Forest Industries
Monthly sawn softwood production in Canada
(1-6 2,9 %)
1000 m3
7000
2000
1999
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Council of Forest Industries

17. Sawn timber production in Japan
(1-7 99/00 -4 %)
1000 m3
2000
2000
1999
2000
1500
1500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
500
1000
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18. Prices

19. USA weekly lumber prices
framing lumber composite price
Source: Random Lengths 38/2000
USD/1000bft
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
9201
9301
9401
9501
9601
9701
9801
9901
2000/1
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20. SPF FIM/m3 week 2x4 std&btr kd western s-p-f
Source: Random Lengths 38/2000
FIM/m3
FIM/m3
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
9201
9301
9401
9501
9601
9701
9801
9901
2000/1
week
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21.
Jäsenkysely: elokuu

22. USA mortgage rates (last month 08 /2000) % 14 Variable 30 y fixed 12
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USA mortgage rates
(last month 08
/2000) % 14
Variable
30 y fixed 12 10 8 6 4
8501
8701
8901
9101
9301
9501
9701
9901

23. USA housing starts and interest rates
(08/2000)
1000 units %
1800 6 7 8 9 10 11
Starts
30 year interest rates
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
9001
9101
9201
9301
9401
9501
9601
9701
9801
9901 1
2000
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24. ( %)
Source: JAWIC

25. The share of European softwood timber of Japanese imports% 25 20 15 10 5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

26. Conclusions

27. Sawn timber production
There has been a substantial long term production increase during the last 10 years in Europe and in North America.
As a result of the storms in central Europe the production of softwood timber has increased 15 % ?
Unjustified German subsidies to gigantic sawmills in the former East Germany.
Also the production in Russia has increased by 15 %.
In Finland the increase is 9 %.
In the USA, Canada and Sweden the increase is somewhat lower 3-5 %.
Only in Japan the production keeps on decreasing

28. Construction, interest rates, currency
The risk of overheating and inflation have resulted in increased interest rates.
Consumer confidence and residential construction might collapse?
Presidential elections in the USA: What effect does it have in the economy next spring?
The relation between the EURO and the USD ?
Russia ?
...