1. Emission Projections for 2020
Janusz Cofala, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Emission Projections for 2020
Results from a study for the European Environment Agency
(Air Pollution Outlooks and Evaluation: Integrated Assessment Methodologies and Tools Applied to Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases. Report for the European Environment Agency, December 2000)

2. Assumptions for 2010 and 2020 Activity levels: Emission controls:
“Shared Analysis” energy scenario of DG Energy for EU-15 and accession countries for 2010 and 2020
Emission controls:
For 2010: Gothenburg Protocol
For 2020: Measures implied by the emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol applied to all new capital stock

3. SO2 Emissions in Europe

4. NOx Emissions in Europe

5. VOC Emissions in Europe

6. NH3 Emissions in Europe

7. Acidification Area of Unprotected Ecosystems

8. Eutrophication Area of Unprotected Ecosystems

9. Unprotected Ecosystems 2020 % of ecosystems area
Acidification
Eutrophication

10. Excess Ozone Exposure (Health) above WHO Guidelines

11. Excess Ozone Exposure (Vegetation) above Critical Levels

12. Ozone Exposure in 2020 ppm.hours
AOT60
Excess AOT40

13. Conclusions
Emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol in 2010 imply certain emission control measures/legislation
The same measures/legislation, if applied to the capital stock renewed after 2010, will lead in many cases to even lower national emissions in 2020
These ‘autonomous’ improvements will not be sufficient to reach the environmental long-term targets by 2020

14. Slides of this presentation
On the Internet
Slides of this presentation
in Powerpoint format
are available at