1. Analysis of the conflict context
MODULE 3 Topic 4
Analysis of the conflict context

2. CONTENT I. What is Conflict Analysis? II. Key Messages
III. Tools for Conflict Analysis
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context 2

3. Why do we need to analyse the conflict?
What is Conflict Analysis?
Fisher and his colleagues (2000) define CONFLICT ANALYSIS as the practical process of examining and understanding the reality of a conflict from a variety of perspectives.
This understanding then forms the base on which future strategies and actions may be developed and planned.
Why do we need to analyse the conflict?
To understand the background and history of
the situation as well as current events.
To identify all the relevant groups involved,
not just the main or obvious ones.
To understand the perspectives of all of these
groups and to know more about how they relate to each other.
To identify factors and trends that underlie conflicts.
To learn from failures as well as success.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

4. Key Messages CONFLICT ANALYSIS support orientation for future actions.
Conflict analysis can be used or in a
The analysis does not lead to an objective understanding of the conflict. It rather makes one’s subjective perception transparent. This way, conflicts can be reflected on and can be communicated more clearly.
Conflict analysis can entail:
Verifying if one is dealing with a conflict.
Determining the conflict system boundaries, with the option of revising these boundaries later on.
Using conflict analysis tools (presented below) to focus on certain aspects of the conflict and to organise information.
There are many tools and techniques that can help us carry out a Conflict Analysis. On the following slides we will explain and illustrate the practical tools and techniques that are more efficient when carrying out Conflict Analysis in a MULTICULTURAL CONTEXT.
INVIDUALLY
GROUP
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

5. Tools for Conflict Analysis
(Fisher et al, 2000; Mason and Rychard, 2005 and Oliva and Charbonnier, 2016)
1. The Conflict Tree
The conflict tree is a visual and sorting tool. The tree help us to envision the interaction between structural, manifest and dynamic factors. The roots symbolise structural “static” factors. The trunk represents the manifest issues, linking structural factors with dynamic ones. The leaves moving in the wind represent the dynamic factors.
Dynamic Factors: Dynamic factors include forms of communication, increase levels, relationship aspects, etc. Working with dynamic factors involves a short time horizon; reactions to interventions are quick and, at times, unpredictable.
Manifest issues: Conflict parties want to talk about their issues. These are the “topic” of the conflict.
Structural Factors: Root causes are the basic “reason” of the conflict. They are difficult to change in a short period of time. If they are avoided, however, the conflict may pop up again later.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

6. Let’s see now an example of roots, trunk and leaves:
Tools for Conflict Analysis (Fisher et al, 2000; Mason & Rychard, 2005, and Oliva & Charbonnier, 2016)
Let’s see now an example of roots, trunk and leaves:
Displeasure with reception resources
Emergence of new reception models
LEAVES:
DYNAMIC FACTORS
Social demands
Less reception housing for refugees
Legislation
Lack of agreements with institutions
Block of economic grants
TRUNK: PROBLEM
ROOTS:
CAUSES
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

7. What is the objective of the Conflict Tree?
Tools for Conflict Analysis (Fisher et al, 2000; Mason & Rychard, 2005 and Oliva & Charbonnier, 2016).
What is the objective of the Conflict Tree?
Fostering the reflection on the links between root causes, issues and dynamic factors.
Differentiating the time intervals of different conflict transformation approaches.
Problems
Dynamic factors
Causes
See an example of this interrelation in the next slide

8. STEP BY STEP INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Draw a picture of a tree, including its roots, trunk and branches – on a large sheet of paper or a flip-chart.
2. Each person gets several cards, on which they would write a word or two, or draw a symbol or picture, indicating important factors of the conflict as they see it.
3. Invite people to pin their cards on the tree: 1. On the roots, if they see it as a root cause; 2. On the trunk, if they think it is a manifest issue, a “topic” of the conflict; 3. On the branches, if they see it as a dynamic factor that has an influence on the conflict.
4. Someone starts the discussion about why factors have been placed on that parts of the tree. There is no absolute “right” or “wrong”. Placement of factors is partly subjective, may be different in other conflicts, and may change over time.
5. People can envision their own conflict transformation efforts (e.g. as a bird or worm) and place them on the tree depending on the factors they are currently working on.
6. Discuss the relation between root causes and dynamic factors and how to address them.
Miscommunication
Religion
Fear
CIE
Isolation
Traumatic
experiences
Legal Insecurity
Cultural Discrimination
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

9. What is the objective of the Conflict Map?
A conflict map simplifies a conflict, and gives us an overview of it:
1) The actors and their “power”, or their influence
on the conflict.
2) Their relationship with each other.
3) The conflict topic or issue.
A conflict map represents a SPECIFIC VIEW POINT (of the person or group that maps it), of a specific conflict situation (it should not be too complex!), at a specific moment in time, similar to a photograph.
What is the objective of the Conflict Map?
Clarifying the relationships between actors.
Envisioning and reflect on the power of actors.
Representing the conflict on one sheet of paper, to have a first conflict overview.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

10. STEP BY STEP INSTRUCTIONS:
1.Decide on the conflict you want to analyse. Set the conflict system boundaries.
2. Form groups of two or more people. One can make a conflict map on his/her own, but it is better to do it in groups. If there are people in the group that know nothing about the conflict, they can help by asking questions that could help to clarify it, and, if one of the actor involved is a person, it is better to speak directly to him/her, and even, to test the ideas proposed on them.
3. Draw the actors as circles on the paper or on cards that can be pinned on; the size of the circle represents the “power” of the actor. If you or your organisation is involved, do not forget to put yourself as well as an actor on the page. List third parties as semi-circles.
4. Draw lines (see symbols in the next slide) between the circles representing the relationship between the actors.
5. In square boxes, or at the top of the map, list the main topics of the conflict. For more details on each actor, use the Needs-Fears mapping tool (explained in the next slides).
6. Do not forget to add a title and date to the conflict map, and if it is not confidential, also put the name or organisation of the person that is elaborating the map.
Party C
Party B
Party F
Issue
Party A
Outside
Party
Party E
Party D
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

11. • HALF CIRCLES OR QUARTER CIRCLE = external parties, third parties.
Possible symbols used in conflict mapping:
• CIRCLE = parties involved in the situation. The size of the circle symbolised the power of the conflict party. The name can be written in the circle.
• STRAIGHT LINE = close relationship.
• DOUBLE LINE = Very good relationship, alliance.
• DOTTED LINE = weak, informal or intermittent link.
• ARROW = predominant direction of influence or activity.
• ZIG ZAG LINE = discord, conflict. Lighting bolts can be added to indicate hot topics.
• HALF CIRCLES OR QUARTER CIRCLE = external parties, third parties.
• RECTANGULAR BOXES = issues, topics or things that are not people or organisations.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

12. What is the objective of the ABC-Triangle?
This analysis is based on the premise that conflicts have three major factors that influence each other:
their attitudes,
the behaviour of those involved and,
the context or situation.
Each corner of the triangle represent these elements graphically.
FOR EXAMPLE: a context that ignores the demands of one group is likely to provoke an attitude of frustration, which in turn may lead to protests. This behaviour might then moves to a context of further denial of rights, contributing to greater frustration, perhaps even anger, which could erupt into violence.
What is the objective of the ABC-Triangle?
• Identifying these three sets of factors for each of the major parties.
• Analysing how these influence each other.
• Relating these factors to the needs and fears of each party.
• Identifying a starting point to carry out an intervention.
Behaviour
Attitudes
Context
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

13. 4. Needs-Fears Map The table can be used:
The Needs-Fears Map is an actor-oriented clarification tool. For each actor, the issues, interests/expectations/needs, fears, means and options are listed in a table. This enables comparisons and quick reference.
The table can be used:
TO ANALYSE A CONFLICT from the perspective of one actor, writing down the characteristics that hypothetically the other actors may have.
To make a third party express their PERCEPTION about the actors.
To make one of the parties see their ISSUES AND INTERESTS reflected on the map, so they can feel that their point of view has been taken into account.
4) As a CONFLICT PERSPECTIVE CHANGE exercise, in which each actor fills out a table with the characteristics of the other actors, and exchange the “self” and “foreigner” roles. In order for this to work, there has to be a certain degree of trust and understanding between the parts.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

14. What is the objective of the Needs-Fears Map?
To clarify in a comparable format the VARIOUS ACTORS’ ATTRIBUTES.
To abandon positions that do not help to solve the conflict, and focus on NEEDS AND FEARS, and possible options to deal with these.
To help people understand each OTHERS PERCEPTIONS.
To stimulate DISCUSSIONS.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

15. The following example is about a conflict over a planned irrigation scheme:
Parties
Issues
Interest/Needs
Fears
Means
Options
Irrigation farmers
Financing of the irrigation scheme
Income generation
Scheme will be stopped, they will have to leave their job
Political lobbying, shooting the cows or pastoralists
Joining the dialogue process, suggesting employment to shepherds on the farms
Shepherd
Water access for their herds
Livelihood and survival
Their herds cannot survive, they will have to migrate
Political lobbying, pushing the herds into the irrigated area
Joining the dialogue process suggesting a corridor for the water
Development Cooperation agency
Implementation of the project in a “Do no harm” manner
Wish to own a land, have an income and a status at home
Project fails and the agency is blamed
Financial incentives, convening power
Bringing parties together to discuss issues
Government
Economic growth without social unrest
Re-election, popularity
Civil unrest, lack of development
Financial, political and legal means
Influencing the dialogue process, compensation fund
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

16. STEP-BY-STEP INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Draw a table with the following columns: Issues, interests/needs, fears, means and options. 2.
A conflict party or third party fills out the table as a conflict analysis tool; the table is not seen by the other conflict parties.
In a moderated workshop setting, each conflict party fills out the table about their own situation. The joint table is discussed in the group. The facilitator clarifies the importance of focusing on the interests (why people want something) and not on positions (what people say they want). The options don’t necessarily need to be realisable in the near future.
In a moderated workshop setting, each conflict party fills out the table for the other parties. This makes the actors see the others’ perspective. Trust is needed or else stereotype pictures may dominate the discussion.
3. In the case of b) and c), there has to be a meeting to discuss the content of the table. Something that will allow each party to respond to “self” and “foreign” images.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

17. What is the objective of the Multi-Causal Role Model?
This concept differentiates structural from actor-oriented factors by synthesising A system and actor approach. Disputes have their roots in psycho-sociological, socio-economic, political, and international conditions. There is usually a “syndrome of factors” that causes violence.
What is the objective of the Multi-Causal Role Model?
• Tracing causal mechanisms and patterns that enable to distinguish between the quality and role of the different factors that lead to conflicts.
• Analysing both the content as well as the dynamics of a specific conflict.
• Facilitating the location of starting points to begin the transformation of the conflict and to differentiate between short-term and long-term commitment needs.
Targets
Reasons
Triggers
Violence
Channels
Catalysts
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

18. STEP-BY-STEP INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Focus on your conflict, distinguishing between the following FACTORS:
a) Reasons, the basic or root causes and structural factors of the conflict, perceived by the actor as “historical problems”. Reasons are related to the conflict parties’ interests and needs, but also to their perception of history, trauma, injustice, etc. They influence the content and dynamics of the conflict.
b) Goals are the aims of the conflict parties, what the conflict parties say they are fighting for, their positions and expressed interests. Goals influence the content of the conflict.
c) Channels are the lines of political, social, economic or national cleavage, that group people together, that create a group-identity. Channels influence the content and dynamics of the conflict. The channels are not always directly related to root causes.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context

19. STEP-BY-STEP INSTRUCTIONS: d) Triggers initiate a new level of conflict. In violent conflicts, for example, a trigger leads an actor who previously preferred non-violent solutions, to violent actions. The trigger influences the dynamics of a conflict. Triggers are hard to identify in advance, and are not easily influenced by a third party. e) Catalysts influence the rate, intensity and duration of a conflict once the conflict is happening, affecting the content and dynamics of a conflict. Catalysts and channels together may transform reasons over time, for example when two groups starts fighting about resources, and end up fighting about ethnicity. 2. Once you have identified the different factors, put the reasons, triggers, channels, catalysts, targets in a graph and link them with arrows. 3. On separate cards, see which conflict transformation effort is addressing which factor and if they need to change or carry out further efforts.

20. Bibliography and references
Fisher, M., Abdi, D.I., Ludin, J., Smith, R., Williams, S., & Williams, S. (2000). Working with Conflict: Skills and Strategies for Action. London, England: ZED-Books.
Mason, S., & Rychard, S. (2005). Conflict Analysis Tools: Tip Sheet. Retrieved from: studies/pdfs/Conflict-Analysis-Tools.pdf
Oliva, F., & Chabonnier, L. (2016). Conflict, Analysis Handbook. A field and headquarter guide to conflict assessment. Turin, Italy: United Nations System Staff College.
Ting-Toomey, S. (1994). Managing Intercultural Conflicts Effectively. In Samovar, L.A, and Porter, R. E., 8Eds.), Intercultural Communication: A reader. California, United States: Wadsworth.
MODULE 3. Conflict management: definition, prevention and resolution. Interethnic conflict.Topic 4: Analysis of the conflict context