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Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2018

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1 Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2018
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

2 Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3
Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in Finland Annually in 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018: 2.4% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020, 1.5% in 2021, 1.5% in 2022, 1.4% in 2023 Source: Macrobond, IMF, Federation of Finnish Technology Industry

3 The Finnish Technology Industry Is Comprised of Five Sub-Sectors
ELEKTRONICS AND ELECTROTECHNICAL INDUSTRY ABB, Ensto, Microsoft Mobile, Murata Electronics, Nokia, Planmeca, Polar Electro, Suunto, Vacon, Vaisala… METALS INDUSTRY Boliden, Componenta, Kuusakoski, Luvata, Outokumpu, Outotec, Ovako, Sacotec, SSAB … MECHANICAL ENGINEERING Abloy, Cargotec, Finn-Power, Fiskars, Glaston, Kone, Konecranes, Metso, Meyer Turku, Normet, Oras, Patria, Pemamek, Ponsse, Stala, Valmet, Valtra, Wärtsilä… INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Affecto, Basware, Bilot, CGI, Comptel, Digia, Efecte, Enfo, F-Secure, Fujitsu Finland, IBM, Innofactor, Knowit, Microsoft, Nixu, Tieto… CONSULTING ENGINEERING A-Insinöörit, Citec, Elomatic, Etteplan, FCG, Granlund, Neste Jacobs, Pöyry, Ramboll, Rejlers, SITO, SWECO, WSP… 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

4 The Finnish Technology Industry Is Comprised of Five Sub-Sectors
ELEKTRONICS AND ELECTROTECHNICAL INDUSTRY Data communications equipment, electrical machinery, medical technology Turnover (2017): 14.4 billion euros Personnel (2017): 37,800 METALS INDUSTRY Steel products, non-ferrous metals, castings, metallic minerals Turnover (2017): 10.1 billion euros Personnel (2017): 16,100 MECHANICAL ENGINEERING Machinery, metal products, vehicles Turnover (2017): 29.9 billion euros Personnel (2017): 127,900 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IT services, applications and programming Turnover (2017): 12.3 billion euros Personnel (2017): 66,900 CONSULTING ENGINEERING Expertise for construction industry and infrastructure Turnover (2017): 6.0 billion euros Personnel (2017): 50,900 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

5 The Technology Industry – the Largest Export Sector in Finland
51 % of total exports. Almost 315,000 employed directly in the sector, including indirect effects 665,000 people. Effect on value added totaling € 55 billion, or 28% of GDP value added. Bring to Finland € 18 billion tax revenue annually. Investments about EUR 5.0 billion annually in Finland. 70 % of private-sector R&D investment. 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

6 Value Added to the Economy Generated by the Technology Industry Is EUR 55 Billion, or over 28% of GDP * (2017) Teknologiateollisuus *) GDP value added was EUR billion in 2017. Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

7 Technology Industry Generates nearly 650,000 Jobs in Finland (over 25% of All Employees) (2017)
10 jobs in the technology industry bring 11 jobs to the rest of the economy Teknologiateollisuus Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

8 den työpaikan palveluissa
Every Job in the Technology Industry Generates almost another Job in the Services den työpaikan palveluissa Teknologiateollisuus *) Excl. the services industries in the technology industry. Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

9 Technology Industry Generates over 18 Billion Euros in Tax Revenue Annually in Finland
Teknologiateollisuus Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

10 Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland, Technology Industries of Finland

11 Export of Technology Industry Goods from Finland by Area in 2017
Total goods exports 30.6 billion euros* Central and Eastern Europe 5.11 billion € 16.6 % Western Europe 16.44 billion € 53.7 % North America 2.79 billion € 9.1 % Asia 4.51 billion € 14.7 % Middle and Central East 0.51 billion € 1.7 % South and Middle America 0.84 billion € 2.8 % Africa 0.43 billion € 1.4 % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) In addition to goods exports the sector exported services worth some 13 billion euros. Source: National Board of Customs, Statistics Finland

12 Technology, Forest and Chemical Industries Provide 81 % of Finland's Goods and Services Exports Revenue Goods and service exports: billion euros and the share of Finnish exports in 2017 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) Service exports industry-specific data for the year 2017 are preliminary information. Source: Board of Customs, Statistics Finland (National Accounts, Foreign trade in services), Federation of Finnish Technology Industries

13 Turnover of the Industry and Technology Industry in Finland
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland

14 Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland

15 Value of New Orders in the Technology Industry* in Finland
Million euros, at current prices 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: III,2018 / III,2017 III,2018 / II,2018 Export: +27 % +4 % Domestic: +3 % -10 % Combined: +22 % 0 % *) Excl. metals industry, game industry and data center companies 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation July-September 2018.

16 Value of Order Books in the Technology Industry* in Finland
Million euros, at current prices Combined 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: / / Export: +22 % +8 % Domestic: +11 % -1 % Combined: +20 % +6 % *) *) Excl. metals industry, game industry and data center companies 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation 30th September 2018.

17 Tender Requests* Received by Technology Industry Companies in Finland
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *) ”Have you experienced a notable increase or decrease in the number of requests for tenders in recent weeks in comparison to the situation three months ago?”. Balance figure = the number of companies receiving more requests - the number of companies receiving less requests.” 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, the last questionnaire in October 2018

18 Tender Requests* Received by Technology Industry Anticipate Weaker Order Development in Winter
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) Four quarters moving average. Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies

19 Value of New Orders in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland
Million euros, at current prices 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: III, 18 / III,2017 III,2018 / II,2018 Export: +18 % +2 % Domestic: -10 % +1 % Combined: +11 % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation July-September 2018.

20 Value of Order Books in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland
Million euros, at current prices Combined 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: / / Export: +12 % +3 % Domestic: -8 % +2 % Combined: +7 % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation 30th September 2018.

21 Value of New Orders in the Mechanical Engineering in Finland
Million euros, at current prices 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: III,2018 / III,2017 III,2018 / II,2018 Export: +34 % +5 % Domestic: -14 % Combined: +29 % +2 % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation July-September 2018.

22 Value of Order Books in the Mechanical Engineering in Finland
Million euros, at current prices Combined 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: / / Export: +26 % +9 % Domestic: +22 % -2 % Combined: +25 % +7 % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation 30th September 2018.

23 Value of New Orders in the Consulting Engineering in Finland
Million euros, at current prices 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: III,2018 / III,2017 III,2018 / II,2018 Export: +110 % +77 % Domestic: +41 % -20 % Combined: +49 % -12 % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation July-September 2018.

24 Value of Order Books in the Consulting Engineering in Finland
Million euros, at current prices Combined 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: / / Export: -14 % +7 % Domestic: +46 % +11 % Combined: +32 % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation 30th September 2018.

25 Value of New Orders in the Information Technology* in Finland
Million euros, at current prices 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: III,2018 / III,2017 III,2018 / II,2018 Combined: +35 % -20 % *) Excl. game industry and data center companies 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation July-September 2018.

26 Value of Order Books in the Information Technology* in Finland
Million euros, at current prices 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change: / / Combined: +1 % -6 % *) Excl. game industry and data center companies. 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest observation 30th September 2018. Teknologiateollisuus

27 Technology Industry Personnel in Finland Has Grown by nearly 15,000 this Year
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey

28 Technology Industry Personnel in Finland by Branch
(Sep 30) 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey, Macrobond

29 Technology Industry Personnel in Subsidiaries Abroad by Branch
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey, Macrobond

30 Retirement of Technology Industry Personnel in Finland
Individuals per year Salaried employees Blue collar employees 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Wage inquiry of the Techonology Industries of Finland, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland

31 Retirement of Technology Industry Blue Collar Employees in Finland
Individuals per year 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Wage inquiry of the Techonology Industries of Finland, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland

32 Overview of the Situation in the Technology Industry and Outlook for the Rest of 2018
- Turnover in Finland totalled some EUR 72.7 billion in In January-August 2018, the turnover was up 5 % year-on-year. In 2008, prior to the financial crises, the corresponding figure was EUR 86 billion. - The monetary value of new orders reported between July-September 2018 was at the same level as in the preceding quarter, but 22 % higher than in the corresponding period in 2017. - At the end of September, the value of order books was 6 % higher than at the end of June, and 20 % higher than in September 2017. - The turnover of technology industry companies during the rest of 2018 is expected to be slightly higher than in the corresponding period last year. - The number of personnel in Finland increased strongly during January-September Personnel increased by slightly less than 5 %, or by almost 15,000 employees from the average number in On average, the industry employed some 314,000 people. In 2008, the industry employed a total of 326,000 people in Finland. - The recruitment activities picked up markedly between January and September. The companies recruited a total of 40,000 new employees, in 2017 a total of 42,500 employees. 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

33 World Economic Outlook - Finland as a Part of Global Economy
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

34 GDP also Grows in Finland, but the Backlog for the Other Euro Area Countries Is up to 8%
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Lähde: Macrobond

35 Finnish Exports Growth Has Come to an End during 2018, Backlog for the Other Euro Area Countries is 40% 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, Eurostat

36 Growth in Finland’s Exports and Private Consumption Has Declined during 2018
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland

37 Gross Domestic Product Has Grown Long in Europe and the USA, Finland is Lagging Behind
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Souce: Macrobond

38 In China and India Growth Continues, also Brazil Is Now Growing
Share of global GDP in China, India, Brazil and Russia is 31 % (adjusted for PP) 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Lähde: Macrobond

39 Economic Growth in the Euro Area Has Slowed Down Rapidly Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI), 50 = no change from previous month 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Latest information November 2018 Source: Markit

40 Industrial Production Has also Grown in Finland, but the Backlog to EU Average Is 15%
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond

41 Industrial Production Volume in the EU Countries
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond

42 Finland’s Industrial Production Has Lagged Behind the Competition Countries
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

43 Industrial Production in China is Unchanged Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in China 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Latest information November 2018 Source: Markit

44 Industrial Production in Russia Is Growing Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Latest information November 2018 Source: Markit

45 Industrial Production in Brazil Is Growing Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Brazil 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Latest information November 2018 Source: Markit

46 Industrial Production in the USA is Growing Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry
50 = no change from previous month 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond

47 Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates Reflect Uncertainty about Customs and Economic Sanctions
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond

48 Fixed Investments Have also Grown in Brazil
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Souce: Macrobond

49 Strongest Growth in World Trade Is already Behind Export volume
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

50 Imports to China Have Increased from Several Countries
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond

51 EU Exports to Russia Have Recovered only Slightly
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond

52 Russia’s Share* of Technology Industry Exports from Finland Has Lowered to Some 5 Per Cent
% 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) Soviet Union up to 1991 Source: Finnish Customs

53 The World Economy Is Projected to Grow by 3.7% in 2018
GDP growth in 2018 / 2017, % India China Rest of Eastern Europe Average growth: +3,7 % Rest of Latin America Middle East and Africa Rest of Asia Mexico North America Brazil Russia Western Europe Japan The width of the bar indicates the share of global GDP in 2017 (adjusted for purchasing power parity), % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: IMF (October 2018)

54 Demand in the Finnish Technology Industry Export Market is Expected to Grow by 2.7 % in 2018
GDP growth in 2018 / 2017, % India Rest of Latin America Mexico China Middle East and Africa Average growth: +2,7 % Rest of Eastern Europe Rest of Asia North America Western Europe Japan Brazil Russia The width of the bar indicates the export share of technology industry from Finland in 2016, % 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: IMF (October 2018), Finnish Customs

55 Finland’s Economic Growth Relies on Exports and Investments
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

56 Finnish Exports Have Lagged Behind the Competition Countries
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, Eurostat

57 Growth Paradox: the Downsized Industry Has Limited Opportunities to Increase Finnish Exports
-18 % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland / industrial production volume index

58 The Decline in Exports and Recession: the Public Debt and Total Tax Rate Increased Significantly
Increased cost burden requires cuts to public sector 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Macrobond, Eurostat

59 Unlike the Competition Countries, in Finland Business Investment Is Still Below the Level in 2008
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: OECD, Economic Outlook (June 2018)

60 Investments in the Manufacturing and Technology Industry in Finland Do Not Promise Long-Term Strong Growth Production and R&D investments in Finland, million euros, at fixed 2017 prices 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland, (National Accounts), The Confederation of Finnish Industries* investment survey (June 2018)

61 Industrial Productive and R&D Investment in Finland Have Not Yet Reached the 2007-2008 Levels
Billion euros, at fixed 2010 prices 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) Including software investments. Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey June 2018

62 Total Industry Investment in Finland Are Below the Consumption of Fixed Capital
Billion euros, at fixed 2010 prices 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) Including software investments. Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey June 2018

63 Industrial Productive Investment in Finland Have Reached the Level of Consumption of Productive Capital Billion euros, at fixed 2010 prices 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey June 2018

64 Industrial Production Capital in Finland Has Disappeared Significantly, Especially after 2008
Billion euros, at fixed 2010 prices 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey June 2018

65 Investments and productivity* are Decisive for Finland’s Success
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) Productivity is measured as real value added per hours worked. When productivity grows (the curve rises) value added grows more than hours worked. Source: Statistics Finland

66 In Industrial Productivity Development, Finland Has a Gap of 20% Compared to EU Average and 15% Compared to Sweden and Germany Value added in manufacturing industry at fixed prices / hours worked 2008=100 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Latest information July-September 2018. Source: Eurostat: Quarterly National Accounts

67 In GDP Productivity Development, Finland Has a Gap of 7% Compared to EU Average and 5% to Sweden and Germany GDP at fixed prices / hours worked 2008=100 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Latest information July-September 2018. Source: Eurostat: Quarterly National Accounts

68 Investment Rate of Companies in Finland Is Lower in Finland than in Other Small European Countries
Means 8 bill.€, as now in Finland 25 bill.€ 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Eurostat Teknologiateollisuus

69 Finland’s Price and Cost Competitiveness vis-à-vis the Euro Countries Is still to be Improved
Unit labour costs in the whole economy = labour costs / productivity, including the influence of effective exchange rates Finland’s price and cost competitiveness declines Finland’s price and cost competitiveness improves 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland *) In the ECB Harmonised Competitiveness Index, the average effective exchange rate of each country is calculated vis-à-vis 38 main trade partners, as well as the development of unit labour costs for the total economy. Latest information April-June Source: European Central Bank

70 What Should Be Done in Finland?
Support the renewal of the industry. Taxes should support growth and investment in Finland. Support decision making in companies related to compensation and working time No new European nor national burdens on companies, which are deteriorating the competitiveness. 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

71 Long-Term Outlook and Challenges
Global Structural Change Set to Continue Apace Industrial production and services will relocate to rapidly developing economic areas Strong growth, large markets, cheap labour and increasing expertise will increase the attractiveness of these regions. Competition over Skills and Raw Materials Set to Increase Due to an increase in retirement, the sector’s annual recruitment need in Finland will rise considerably in the coming years. The availability of reasonably-priced energy also threatens to become an investment bottleneck in Finland Combating Climate Change A challenge as costs are set to grow faster than in competitor countries An opportunity for new environmental and energy technologies 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

72 Technology Industries of Finland
12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

73 The Federation’s Member Companies 2017
250–499 employees Number of enterprises / 1 587 Number of personnel / 1–249 employees 500–999 employees 1000– employees 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

74 The Federation’s SME Member Companies 2017
Number of enterprises / 1 439 Number of personnel / 1–19 employees 20–49 employees 50–99 employees 100–249 employees 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland

75 Operating Profit in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2017
Operating profit-% = operating result / turnover * 100 (before taxes and financial income and expenses) Companies in random order 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland

76 Net Profit in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2017
Net profit -% = net profit / turnover * 100 (after tax and financial income and expenses) Good (21 %) Satisfactory (23 %) Weak (32 %) Unprofitable (24 %) Companies in random order 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland

77 Return on Assets in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2017
Return on assets -% = (net income + financial expenses + taxes) / (capital invested in the financial year) * 100 Companies in random order 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland

78 Equity Ratio in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2017
Equity ratio -% = (total equity + total appropriations accrued) / adjusted balance sheet * 100 Companies in random order 12/31/2018 Technology Industries of Finland Source: Statistics Finland


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