2. Methodology
1172 online and telephone interviews with voters likely to cast ballots in November 2018 in Petaluma
This sample included a sub-sample of 949 voters likely to cast a ballot in June 2018
Interviews conducted February 11-19, 2018
Interviews conducted online, on landlines and cell phones
Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.0% for full sample
Some percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding
Includes select tracked data from 2016

3. Issue Context

4. Voters are feeling less optimistic about the direction of the area than in 2016.
Would you say that things in__________ are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
Sonoma County
City of Petaluma

5. Approval of city government has declined since 2016.
Total Approve
58%
70%
53%
69%
62%
52%
Petaluma City government, overall
The Petaluma City Council

6. Voters feel safe in Petaluma and think the City provides adequate services, but are unfamiliar with its finances.
Total Accurate
91%
96%
73%
82%
39%
66%
35%
37%
The City of Petaluma is a safe place to live.
The City of Petaluma provides adequate services and takes care of the needs of local residents.
The City of Petaluma's finances are generally well-managed.
The City of Petaluma is on the brink of a budget shortfall.

7. Three-in-five voters see a need for additional funding for City services.
In your personal opinion, do you think there is a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds to provide the level of City services that Petaluma residents need and want?
2016
2018
Great/ Some Need
64%
Great/ Some Need
62%
A Little/
No Real Need
32%
A Little/
No Real Need
30%

8. Initial Support for the Proposed City of Petaluma Finance Measures

9. A slim majority support the proposed sales tax initially.
To preserve and improve vital City of Petaluma services such as maintaining emergency medical and fire response times, upgrading police and fire buildings and equipment, and ensuring 24-hour police and fire staffing, among others, shall the Safer Petaluma measure increasing the Petaluma sales tax by three-quarters of one cent for 20 years be adopted, providing $9.75 million annually, with all proceeds placed in the City’s General Fund, authority to incur debt to accelerate projects, citizens’ oversight, annual audits and all funds spent locally?
Total Yes
51%
Total No
44%

10. The half-cent sales tax presents the strongest opportunity for success at the ballot.
Total Yes
Total No
51%
44%
56%
39%
47%
50%

11. A slim majority also backs the proposed TOT measure.
To protect and improve essential City of Petaluma services such as maintaining emergency medical and fire response times, parks and recreation, senior services, and street and road repair among others, shall the measure increasing the Petaluma transient occupancy tax by 2%, until ended by voters, be adopted, providing $700,000 annually, with all proceeds placed in the City’s General Fund, authority to incur debt to accelerate projects, citizens’ oversight, annual audits, and all funds spent locally?
Total Yes
52%
Total No
40%

12. Neither measure appears viable if both are on the ballot.
Next, suppose that both these measures we just discussed appeared on a Petaluma ballot at the same time. In that case, do you think you would vote yes on both the sales tax and the transient occupancy tax measures, yes on just one of the measures, or no on both measures? (IF YES ON ONE, ASK: Is that a yes on the sales tax measure, or on the transient occupancy tax?)
Total Sales Tax: 45%
Total TOT: 47%

13. Keeping funds local, maintaining emergency response times and staffing, and repairing roads and potholes are the most important funding priorities.
Ext./Very Impt.
89%
83%
81%
80%
79%
73%
72%
I am going to read you a list of ways in which the funds generated by this measure could be spent. Please tell me how important each item is to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important.

14. Messaging

15. Support for the proposed sales tax measure fluctuates as voters learn more.
Total Yes
Total No
Undecided

16. Support for the proposed TOT measure increases over the course of the survey.
Total Yes
Total No
Undecided

17. Arguments in Favor of the Measures
(Ranked by % Very Convincing)
(ACCOUNTABILITY/LOCAL CONTROL) These measures includes strict accountability provisions, such as independent citizens’ oversight, and independent financial audits. All funds must be used only for the benefit of Petalumans and cannot be taken by the State.
(TOURIST TAX) Tourists spend millions of dollars in Petaluma every year, and this tourism is projected to keep growing. Much of the sales tax and a majority of the hotel tax that are being proposed would be paid by tourists from outside Petaluma– but every penny would be spent on our community.
(FIRE) Petaluma was lucky and was spared from the recent fires, but we need to make sure that in case of a future emergency, our fire department has the equipment and staffing levels it needs to protect our City and to save lives. These measures will provide the funding necessary to ensure our firefighters can protect our community effectively in any emergency, including wildfire
(BUDGET CUTS – GENERAL FUND) In three years, Petaluma will be in the red – with a budget deficit of over 11 million dollars in five years. Without these measures, the City will have to consider cuts to essential City services, such as the police force, and fire response, as well as non-safety related items such as the maintenance of local roads and parks.
I am going to read you some statements made by supporters of these measures. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to support a school finance measure. Split Sample

18. Arguments in Favor of the Measures (Continued)
(Ranked by % Very Convincing)
(RESPONSE TIMES) The American Heart Association says brain deterioration starts five minutes after a person stops breathing, but without this measure Petaluma will have an insufficient number of emergency vehicles further increasing emergency response times. These measures ensure that people suffering from heart attacks, strokes, or other medical emergencies receive the immediate paramedic care they need to increase their chance for survival.
(CRIME) Crime continues to be a serious issue in Petaluma. Serious, violent crimes have risen 28 percent since 2013, and over 14 percent in the last year alone. These measures would provide the funding we need to ensure that neighborhood patrols and specialized police units to combat serious crimes are protected and enhanced.
(UNSAFE INFRASTRUCTURE) These measures will ensure that our fire stations and police stations are upgraded, repaired, and expanded to meet community needs. Our emergency vehicles will be replaced when they are worn out to ensure continued fast response times
(PROPERTY VALUES) These measures will help Petaluma residents maintain, the character of the community an excellent quality of life, and growth in our property values.
(QUALITY OF LIFE – CITY SERVICES) Petaluma is a community where people desire to live and raise families. However, if these measures do not pass, we will be forced to consider cutting basic public safety, infrastructure, and parks services, and quality of life in Petaluma will decline.
I am going to read you some statements made by supporters of these measures. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to support a school finance measure. Split Sample

19. Information related to conditions of local roads and accountability are of greatest interest to respondents.
74%
63%
68%
57%
I am going to read you some statements….Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing…

20. Conclusions

21. Conclusions
Both a proposed sales tax and a proposed TOT measure receive majority support from voters.
However, in order to succeed they cannot appear on the same ballot.
The results of the survey suggest that the timing of the proposed sales tax measure, the tax rate, and the duration of the tax all matter for its success.
Support for the measure is strongest among those who are more likely to participate in high-turnout elections, suggesting a November electorate is preferable to a June one.
A half-cent sales tax measure has a greater chance of success than a three-quarter cent one.
A 20 year sales tax measure is viable, while a 30-year one is not.
Voters value ensuring the funds of the measures stay local, maintaining 911 emergency response, ensuring 24 hour police and fire staffing, and repairing local roads, highways, and potholes.
Messaging on accountability, the portion of the tax paid by visitors, and the need to be prepared in case of fire resonates most strongly with voters.
Public education emphasizing these themes and ensuring the public understands the necessity of a potential measure will be essential to its success.