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Presented: April 26, 2016 Zinjun (Moby) Xu Tianyu (Jack) Shen
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Agenda 4 5 6 9 10 14 15 16 Current Holding Company Overview
Health care equipment's & pharmaceutical Industry Overview 6 Macro-Economic Analysis 9 Financial Analysis 10 Financial Projection 14 Valuation 15 Recommendation 16
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Holding History & Current Holding
October 2015: hold recommendation April 2015: recommendation to sell 100 out of 400, not supported October 2014: recommendation to sell 100 shares, not supported November 2013: Abbive Spinoff Hold average cost of $26.71 November 2012: Bought 65.77 November 2011: Bought 52.91 April 2011: Bought 52.10 Holding History & Current Holding
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The Abbott Laboratories Company Overview
The company operates in four segments, Established Pharmaceutical Products, Diagnostic Products, Nutritional Products, and Vascular Products. Company Overview Business Overview Founding Founded in 1900 Location Based in Chicago, IL Management Talented and Experienced Team Market Sector Health Care Equipment & Supplies Service Offerings Sales of a line of branded generic pharmaceutical products; a line of adult and pediatric nutritional products; Vascular Products etc. Customer Base Wholesalers, distributors, government agencies, health care facilities etc. The Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Company Officers Miles D. White Brian B. Yoor Thomas C. Freyman Stephen R. Fussell Chairman & CEO VP & CFO VP & Finance & Administration VP & Human Resources Source: Company Website
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The Abbott Laboratories Segments
Products Established Pharmaceutical Key Emerging Markets Other Emerging Market Diagnostic Products Immunochemistry Nutritional Products International Pediatric Nutritionals U.S. Pediatric Nutritionals International Adult Nutritionals U.S. Adult Nutritionals Vascular Products /Medical Devices Endovascular Coronary Devices
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Segments Overview Recommendation to Current Owners Pharmaceutical
September, 2014: Acquisition of CFR December 2014: Acquisition of Veropham Feb, 27, 2015: sale of its developed market business to Mylan Excluding foreign exchange impact: sales increased 34,.1% in 2015 and 14.9% 2014 Operating margins from this business increased from 18.7% in 2013 to 25% in 2015 Positively impacted by demographics & increasing rate of chronic diseases Lower input costs drove the margin improvements across the business Coronary, endovascular, vessel closure, and structural heart devices XIENCE Alpine --- the only product on the market in the U.S with an indication to treat chronic total occlusions. From 2013 – 2015, total vascular sales were flat, excluding the unfavorable impact; Continued market penetration by the Core Laboratory business in the U.S and China, and growth in other emerging markets, most Notably in Latin America. Worldwide diagnostic sales increased 7.3 percent in 2015 and 6.4 percent in 2014, excluding the impact of foreign exchange. January 30, 2016, Abbott entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Alere, Inc. Pharmaceutical Nutritionals Diagnostics Recommendation to Current Owners Vascular Source: Company Website
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SWOT Analysis Strengths - Managed to grow dividends annually >
-Robust growth in each segments (excluding currency impact) > Weakness -- Significant investment in Mylan N.V and is subject to market risk --Research & Development may not succeed >Opportunities -Expanding to new areas: Vascular intervention sector -Emerging markets are growing -Life expectancy is growing Threats - Potential lawsuits and regulation costs on pollution -- Foreign currency exchange rate risk - Highly Competitive Market SWOT Analysis
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Industry Overview A growing older population and expansion into emerging markets will protect revenue Key Statistics Regulation for the Global Pharmaceuticals industry Technological change R&D expenditure Revenue: 61.0bn Annual Growth10-15: 4.5% Annual Growth15-20: 6.2% Profit: 7.7bn Exports: $15.6bn Businesses: 1,045 Global number of adults aged 65 and older Trade-weighted index Key Drivers Increasing industry demands Industry Life Cycle : Growing to Mature The industry is expected to continue facing the aftermath of the patent cliff, hampering industry revenue. Lower healthcare costs will constrain industry revenue growth The Pace of development has slowed Heightened competitive pressures Demand in emerging regions has constrained industry revenue growth The development of new generics is increasing the industry’s share of the overall pharmaceuticals market The number of industry participants is expected to steadily increase Industry Outlook The Abbott positioned well within the industry with differentiated quality and product segment
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Key External Drivers Global number of adults aged 65 and older
Positive outlooks for two out of four external drivers Global number of adults aged 65 and older Regulation for the Global Pharmaceuticals & Medicine Manufacturing industry The global number of adults aged 65 and older is expected to increase during 2016. More than 90.0% of seniors and 58.0% of nonelderly adults have need-based demand for prescription medications. As regulations increase, the industry will contend with compliance-related operational costs that constrain profit The level of regulation for the industry is expected to increase slowly during 2016, representing a potential threat for the industry. Technological change R&D expenditure The trade-weighted index (TWI) Improvements to industry systems and technologies result in cost savings Technology lowers operational costs, industry profit margins rise. Technological change is expected to increase during 2016, representing a potential opportunity for the industry. The trade-weighted index (TWI) measures the strength of the US dollar against the currencies of the country's major trading partners. Higher TWI makes industry exports more expensive in foreign markets. The TWI is expected to increase in 2015, posing a potential threat to the industry.
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Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Threat of New Entrants *Low Threat of Substitutes *High Supplier Bargaining Power *Moderate Buyer Bargaining Power Rivalry
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Technical Analysis (As of 4/26/2016)
Abbott’s return on equity has been improving since its spin-off of Abbvie at the beginning of 2013 Source: Stockcharts.com
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Potential Risk Factor: Strong dollar & Hillary Clinton
Abbott Corporations –Buy back stock and pay dividends from loans Dollar Appreciation Borrower: cost more to borrow “Making a fortune off of people's misfortune” Clinton outlined a plan that would reform the way drug companies do business, particularly by stopping them from spending government grants on advertising and by allowing Medicare -- and the U.S. government -- to negotiate down prescription drug costs. Source: Hillary supporter's website
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Financial Projection : Revenue Projection
Abbott Laboratories, Inc. Revenue Drivers and Assumptions Total Segmental Revenue Breakdown 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Pharmaceuticals 2,862.0 3,118.0 3,720.0 $4,158.1 $4,603.4 $5,045.3 $5,502.3 $5,974.2 % Change 8.94% 19.31% Nutrition 6,740.0 6,953.0 6,975.0 $7,011.0 $7,066.0 $7,134.4 $7,198.4 $7,303.0 3.16% 0.32% Diagnostics 4,545.0 4,721.0 4,646.0 $5,760.6 $6,725.0 $7,036.9 $7,248.0 $7,405.9 3.87% -1.59% Vascular 3,251.0 2,986.0 2,792.0 $2,582.0 $2,473.5 $2,414.6 $2,381.6 $2,349.4 -8.15% -6.50% Net Sales to External Customers $2,498.0 $2,469.0 $2,272.0 $2,413.0 -1.16% -7.98% Other -$239.0 $0.0 Total 19,657.0 20,247.0 20,405.0 21,924.7 23,280.9 24,044.2 24,743.2 25,445.5 % Growth 3.00% 0.78% 7.45% 6.19% 3.28% 2.91% 2.84%
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Financial Projection: Revenue Projection
Key Continued Operation Revenue Forecast (Including foreign exchange impact) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Established Pharmaceuticals Key Emerging Market $2,281.0 $2,383.0 $2,781.0 $3,031.3 $3,273.8 $3,503.0 $3,713.1 $3,898.8 % Change 4.47% 16.70% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% Other Emerging Market $581.0 $735.0 $939.0 $1,126.8 $1,329.6 $1,542.4 $1,789.1 $2,075.4 26.51% 27.76% 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% Total $2,862.0 $3,118.0 $3,720.0 $4,158.1 $4,603.4 $5,045.3 $5,502.3 $5,974.2 8.94% 19.31% 11.78% 10.71% 9.60% 9.06% 8.58% Nutritionals International Pediatric $2,257.0 $2,362.0 $2,378.0 $2,330.4 $2,307.1 $2,330.2 4.7% 0.7% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% U.S. Pediatric $1,532.0 $1,533.0 $1,592.0 $1,663.6 $1,721.9 $1,764.9 $1,800.2 $1,836.2 0.1% 3.8% 4.50% 3.50% 2.50% 2.00% International Adult $1,601.0 $1,756.0 $1,729.0 $1,677.1 $1,643.6 $1,627.2 $1,643.4 9.7% -1.5% -3.00% U.S. Adult $1,350.0 $1,302.0 $1,276.0 $1,339.8 $1,393.4 $1,435.2 $1,463.9 $1,493.2 -3.6% -2.0% 4.00% 3.00% $6,740.0 $6,953.0 $6,975.0 $7,011.0 $7,066.0 $7,134.4 $7,198.4 $7,303.0 3.16% 0.32% 0.52% 0.78% 0.97% 0.90% 1.45% Diagnostics Immunochemistry $3,458.0 $3,614.0 $3,529.0 $4,587.7 $5,505.2 $5,780.5 $5,953.9 $6,073.0 4.51% -2.35% 30.00% Others $1,087.0 $1,107.0 $1,117.0 $1,172.9 $1,219.8 $1,256.4 $1,294.0 $1,332.9 1.84% 4,545 4,721 4,646 5,761 6,725 7,037 7,248 7,406 3.9% -1.6% 24.0% 16.7% 4.6% 3.0% 2.2% Vascular Coronary Devices 2,412.00 $2,342.0 $2,176.0 $2,067.2 $1,963.8 $1,904.9 $1,866.8 $1,829.5 -2.90% -7.09% -5.00% Endovascular $475.00 $527.00 $520.00 $514.80 $509.65 $514.75 $519.90 10.95% -1.33% $364.0 $117.0 $96.0 $52.8 $35.3 $20.8 $12.7 $7.4 -67.86% -17.95% -45% -33% -41% -39% -42% 3,251.00 2,986.00 2,791.99 2,582.00 2,473.49 2,414.58 2,381.57 2,349.39 -8.15% -6.50% -7.52% -4.20% -2.38% -1.37% -1.35% Key continued sales 17,398.0 17,778.0 18,133.0 19,511.7 20,867.9 21,631.2 22,330.2 23,032.5 7.60% 6.95% 3.66% 3.23% 3.14%
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Financial Analysis: Income Statement
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue $ ,657.0 $ ,247.0 $ ,405.0 $ ,924.7 $ ,280.9 $ ,044.2 $ ,743.2 $ ,445.5 Growth (%) - 3.0% 0.8% 7.4% 6.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% Cost of Goods Sold 9,193.0 9,218.0 8,747.0 9,877.9 10,010.8 10,098.5 10,144.7 10,178.2 % of Sales 46.8% 45.5% 42.9% 45.1% 43.0% 42.0% 41.0% 40.0% Gross Profit 10,464 11,029 11,658 12,047 13,270 13,946 14,598 15,267 gross margin 53.2% 54.5% 57.1% 54.9% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% Amortization of intangible assets 588.0 555.0 601.0 580.00 560.00 520.00 490.00 480.00 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% Research and development 1,371.0 1,345.0 1,405.0 1,619.3 1,835.8 1,923.5 1,979.5 2,035.6 7.0% 6.6% 6.9% 7.9% 8.0% Selling, general and administrative 6,372.0 6,530.0 6,785.0 7,156.2 7,616.2 7,903.0 8,101.2 8,339.7 32.4% 32.3% 33.3% 32.6% 32.7% 32.9% 32.8% Total Operating Cost and Expenses 17,524 17,648 17,538 9,355 10,012 10,347 10,571 10,855 Operating Earnings (EBIT) 2,133 2,599 2,867 2,691 3,258 3,599 4,028 4,412 % of margin 10.9% 12.8% 14.1% 12.3% 14.0% 15.0% 16.3% 17.3% Interest Expense 145.0 150.0 163.0 239 241 217 170 Interest Income (67.0) (77.0) (105.0) (83.0) (88.3) (92.1) (87.8) (89.4) Net Interest Expense 78.0 73.0 58.0 156.09 152.62 148.72 129.39 80.66 Net loss on extinguishment of debt 18.0 Net foreign exchange (gain) loss 46.0 (24.0) (93.0) $ (24.87) $ (23.28) $ (24.04) $ (24.74) $ (25.45) % sales 0.2% -0.1% -0.5% Other (income) expense, net (32.0) 14.0 (281.0) $ (107.49) $ (116.40) $ (120.22) $ (123.72) $ (127.23) -0.2% 0.1% -1.4% Pretax Income (Earnings from Continuing operation before Tax) 2,041 2,518 3,183 2,668 3,245 3,595 4,047 4,484 10.4% 12.4% 15.6% 12.2% 13.9% 16.4% 17.6% Income Tax Expense 53.0 797.0 577.0 533.5 649.0 718.9 809.4 896.8 Tax rate 31.7% 18.1% 20.0% Earnings from Continuing Operations 1,988 1,721 2,606 2,134 2,596 2,876 3,238 3,587 10.1% 8.5% 9.7% 11.2% 12.0% 13.1% Net Earnings from Discontinued Oprations, net of taxes 588 563 65 Gain on sale of Discontinued Operations, net of taxes 1,752 Net Income 2,576.0 2,284.0 4,423.0 2,134.1 2,596.1 2,875.7 3,237.6 3,587.2
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Financial Analysis: Income Statement
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue $ ,657.0 $ ,247.0 $ ,405.0 $ ,924.7 $ ,280.9 $ ,044.2 $ ,743.2 $ ,445.5 Growth (%) - 3.0% 0.8% 7.4% 6.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% Cost of Goods Sold 9,193.0 9,218.0 8,747.0 9,877.9 10,010.8 10,098.5 10,144.7 10,178.2 % of Sales 46.8% 45.5% 42.9% 45.1% 43.0% 42.0% 41.0% 40.0% Gross Profit 10,464 11,029 11,658 12,047 13,270 13,946 14,598 15,267 gross margin 53.2% 54.5% 57.1% 54.9% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% Amortization of intangible assets 588.0 555.0 601.0 580.00 560.00 520.00 490.00 480.00 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% Research and development 1,371.0 1,345.0 1,405.0 1,619.3 1,835.8 1,923.5 1,979.5 2,035.6 7.0% 6.6% 6.9% 7.9% 8.0% Selling, general and administrative 6,372.0 6,530.0 6,785.0 7,156.2 7,616.2 7,903.0 8,101.2 8,339.7 32.4% 32.3% 33.3% 32.6% 32.7% 32.9% 32.8% Total Operating Cost and Expenses 17,524 17,648 17,538 9,355 10,012 10,347 10,571 10,855 Operating Earnings (EBIT) 2,133 2,599 2,867 2,691 3,258 3,599 4,028 4,412 % of margin 10.9% 12.8% 14.1% 12.3% 14.0% 15.0% 16.3% 17.3% Interest Expense 145.0 150.0 163.0 239 241 217 170 Interest Income (67.0) (77.0) (105.0) (83.0) (88.3) (92.1) (87.8) (89.4) Net Interest Expense 78.0 73.0 58.0 156.09 152.62 148.72 129.39 80.66 Net loss on extinguishment of debt 18.0 Net foreign exchange (gain) loss 46.0 (24.0) (93.0) $ (24.87) $ (23.28) $ (24.04) $ (24.74) $ (25.45) % sales 0.2% -0.1% -0.5% Other (income) expense, net (32.0) 14.0 (281.0) $ (107.49) $ (116.40) $ (120.22) $ (123.72) $ (127.23) -0.2% 0.1% -1.4% Pretax Income (Earnings from Continuing operation before Tax) 2,041 2,518 3,183 2,668 3,245 3,595 4,047 4,484 10.4% 12.4% 15.6% 12.2% 13.9% 16.4% 17.6% Income Tax Expense 53.0 797.0 577.0 533.5 649.0 718.9 809.4 896.8 Tax rate 31.7% 18.1% 20.0% Earnings from Continuing Operations 1,988 1,721 2,606 2,134 2,596 2,876 3,238 3,587 10.1% 8.5% 9.7% 11.2% 12.0% 13.1% Net Earnings from Discontinued Oprations, net of taxes 588 563 65 Gain on sale of Discontinued Operations, net of taxes 1,752 Net Income 2,576.0 2,284.0 4,423.0 2,134.1 2,596.1 2,875.7 3,237.6 3,587.2
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Financial Analysis Ratios Analysis
Return on Assets Liquidity Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio Gross Margin ROE
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Financial Analysis Ratios Analysis
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Financial Analysis DuPont Analysis
Tax Burden Asset Turnover Interest Burden Leverage Operating Margin Return on Equity Abbott’s return on equity has been improving since its spin-off of Abbvie at the beginning of 2013
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Financial Projection: WACC
27.60 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 8.80% 30.93 33.16 35.78 38.89 42.65 47.28 9.30% 28.52 30.42 32.61 35.19 38.25 41.95 9.80% 26.42 28.05 29.92 32.08 34.61 37.63 10.30% 24.58 25.99 27.59 29.43 31.56 34.05 10.80% 22.95 24.18 25.56 27.14 28.95 31.04 11.30% 21.49 22.57 23.78 25.15 26.70 28.48 11.80% 20.18 21.14 22.20 23.39 24.74 26.26
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Comparable Companies Description
Company Name Ticker Description Boston Scientific Corporation BSX Boston Scientific Corporation is a developer, manufacturer and marketer of medical devices that are used in a range of interventional medical specialties. It operates in three segments: Cardiovascular, Rhythm Management and MedSurg. Baxter International Inc BAX Baxter International Inc. (Baxter) is a diversified healthcare company. The Company operates in two segments: BioScience segment, which include three commercial franchises: Hemophilia, BioTherapeutics and BioSurgery, and Medical Products segment, which include four commercial franchises: Fluid Systems, Renal, Specialty Pharmaceuticals and BioPharma Solutions. St. Jude Medical Inc STJ St. Jude Medical, Inc. is focused on the development, manufacture and distribution of cardiovascular medical devices for the global cardiac rhythm management, cardiovascular and atrial fibrillation therapy areas, and interventional pain therapy and neurostimulation devices for the management of chronic pain and movement disorders. Medtronic plc MDT Medtronic plc (Medtronic) is a medical technology and services company. The Company operates in four segments: Cardiac and Vascular Group, Minimally Invasive Technologies Group, Restorative Therapies Group and Diabetes Group. Styker Corporation SYK Stryker Corporation (Stryker) is a medical technology company. The Company operates through three segments: Orthopaedics, MedSurg, and Neurotechnology and Spine. Johson & Johson JNJ Johnson & Johnson is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field. The Company is organized into three business segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices.
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Comparable Analysis The valuation range of comparable companies is about $17 Billion to $313 Billion, or EV/EBTIDA multiples of 13.2x to 15.4x
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Valuation
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We recommend to sell 200 shares of ABT @ Market Price
Final Recommendation We recommend to sell 200 shares of Market Price
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