1. Research Methods
Leadership 389

3. Measuring the Weight of Smoke
Sometimes things that seem immeasurable can be measured well
It often takes creativity and a leap of faith to figure out how to measure some things

4. Outline How do we Know? Scientific Method Four Canons of Science
Hands-on Activity
Induction and Deduction
Our Bias to Prove
Three Approaches to Hypothesis Testing

5. Methods of Acquiring Knowledge
Non-scientific
Intuition
Authority
Logic
Observation
Scientific
Science 

6. Intuition
An implicit understanding of a phenomenon that a person develops in the absence of any formal training
Common sense or folk wisdom
Problem with intuitive approach
No method for determining accurate vs inaccurate knowledge
Cognitive and motivational biases affect perception
Intuition in science
Hypotheses derived from “hunches”

7. Authority
A basis for acceptance of information because it is acquired from a highly respected source
Problem with authority:
Information may be inaccurate
Authority in science:
Problem identification/hypothesis building
Study design
Data interpretation

8. Logic The acquisition of knowledge through reasoning
Problem with logic:
Often doesn’t provide accurate information
The original assumption may be incorrect
Logic in science:
Logic is vital to science!
Developing hypotheses
Developing method of testing hypotheses

9. Observation The acquisition of knowledge through experience
Problem with observation
Cognitive and motivational biases affect perception
Memory is not infallible
Observation in science
Science based on observation 

10. Science
"There is no institution in the modern world more prestigious than science"
A method or logic of inquiry
The best method for acquiring knowledge
Method can be broken down into a series of steps

11. Scientific Method 1) Identifying the problem and forming a hypothesis
Suggestion accounts for hearing satanic messages
2) Designing the experiment
3 groups (given different suggestion) listen to 3 records played backwards and record responses
3) Conducting the experiment
Participants receive 1of 3 instruction sets and then listen to 3 tapes.

12. Scientific Method 4) Testing the hypothesis
5) Communicating the research results
Published article in The Journal of Psychology

13. Four Canons of Science
Determinism
Empiricism
Parsimony
Testability

14. Determinism The assumption that there is a lawfulness in nature.
Science is “a search for order, for uniformities, for lawful relations among the events in nature”- Skinner
Naïve determinists

15. Cab Problem Cab involved in hit-and-run
1) 85% of cabs in the city are Green, 15% are Blue
2) A witness identified cab as blue
Testing revealed the witness identified colors of cabs correctly 80% of the time (incorrectly 20%)
What is the probability that the cab in the accident was blue?

16. Cab Problem Cab involved in hit-and-run
1) Although the 2 companies are roughly equal in size, 85% of cab accidents in the city involve green cabs and 15% involve blue cabs
2) A witness identified cab as blue
Testing revealed the witness identified colors of cabs correctly 80% of the time (incorrectly 20%)
What is the probability that the cab in the accident was blue?

17. Determinism Close corollary to principle of determinism: Theories
Theory:
Statement about causal relation between 2 or more variables
Hypothesis
Similar to theories but more limited in scope and less empirical support

18. Science is Empirical To be empirical is to make observations
Getting it straight from the horse’s mouth
Philosophers debating the number of teeth a horse should have
Biological philosopher: As member of family Equidae, they should, like a zebra, have 34.
Theological philosopher: A scripturally unclean grazer, should have less than a cow: about 28 teeth
Empirical philosopher: If we want to know how many teeth it has, let’s open its mouth and count.

19. Science is Empirical Relatively modern assumption
Galileo began a new science based on observation and experimentation
Galileo’s main work showed a “passionate fight against any kind of dogma based on authority”- Einstein

20. Parsimony

21. Parsimony A.K.A. Occam’s Razor
Entities must not be multiplied beyond what is necessary
A problem must be stated in its basic and simplest terms
AKA: Law of parsimony
The simplest explanation should be preferred to more complex explanations
That theory which makes the fewest number of assumptions is to be preferred over those which require a larger number of assumptions.
Example: Crop circles
Many adoptions of Occam’s razor
Morgan’s canon
Clever Hans

22. Testability Theories should be testable Falsifiability
Karl Popper
‘all swans are white’
One can always support this point by pointing to more white examples
A better test would be to find a black one
(Ironically, black swans were later discovered in Australia! )

23. Hands-On Activity: Galileo’s Dice
Comparing different ways of knowing
Answer the questions gamblers once asked Galileo:
400 years ago gamblers played game with 3 standard dice. Most believed the probability of rolling a 9 was the same as rolling a 10. However, some had a gut intuition that 10 was a little more likely and their casual observations supported this. Those who believed the probability was equal said that there are six combinations of number that total nine (126, , 225, 234, 333) and there are 6 combinations that total 10 (136, 145, 226, 235, 244, 334). So, they approached an authority for the answer: Galileo. I would like you to approach this problem only using one particular way of knowing.

24. Three ways of knowing Group 1: The Logical Counter of Ways
Group 2: The Logical Expected Evaluators
Group 3 and 4: The Empiricists

25. Questions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 How confident are you of this answer?
Which roll do you think is most likely, a 9 or a 10?
not at all extremely
How confident are you of this answer?
What is your best guess as to the exact probability of rolling a 9 with a fair set of 3 dice? What about 10? How confident are you in this set of guesses?

26. Induction and Deduction
Scientists use logic to induce and deduce valid conclusions
Induction
Moving from data to a general theory of concept
Specific to general
Deduction
Moving from a theory to particular statements concerning data
General to specific
Data
Theory
Induction
Deduction

27. E T 4 7 Hypothesis Testing Wason Selection task
If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side E T 4 7

28. E T 4 7 2 A 5 U Hypothesis Testing Wason Selection task
If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side E T 4 7 2 A 5 U

29. E T 4 7 2 5 A U Hypothesis Testing Wason Selection task
If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side E T 4 7 2 5 A U

30. Our Bias to “Prove” Pervasive confirmatory biases
Positive test bias or hypothesis confirmation bias
EX: Snyder and Swann (1978)
• Interview person
Is he/she introvert/extrovert
Given list of Qs to ask
some about being introverted (in what situation do you wish you could be more outgoing?)
some about being extroverted (what would you do to liven up a party

32. Behavioral Confirmation
Causing people to act the way you expect
Word, Zanna & Cooper (1974)
White interviewees perform “better”
White interviewers behave differently towards white and black interviewees
Trained interviewers to use “White” or “Black” style
White interviewees who get “White” style do better

33. Approaches to Hypothesis Testing
Validation
Falsification
Qualification

34. Theory
“People perform tasks better when in the presence of others than when alone”

35. Validation Gather evidence to support or confirm the hypothesis
Triplett (1898)
Noticed bicyclists performed better when riding with others
Study with children performing simple task either alone or with others.
Results:
Children performed better when in the presence of others compared to when alone
Social facilitation

36. Falsification Gather evidence to invalidate or disprove a hypothesis
Pessin (1933)
Presence of others inhibits performance on a maze
Dashiell (1930)
Learn nonsense syllables slower
Social inhibition

37. Qualification
Attempt to identify conditions under which a hypothesis is true or not
Zajonc 1965
Dominant response:
Well-learned or instinctive behaviors that the individual has practiced and is primed to perform
Nondominant response:
Novel, complicated, or untried behaviors that the individual has never performed (or performed infrequently)
Social facilitation occurs for easy, dominant tasks whereas social inhibition occurs for novel, nondominant tasks.

38. Social facilitation/inhibition in poolroom
Players identified as above or below average
Research team of 4 approached the table and observed playing
Found classic facilitation/inhibition effects
% shots
made