1. Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry
as a Leading Forecasting Tool
October 2009
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

2. The Israeli Economy , 2008 Facts & Figures
GDP ($Billion)
Population (Million)
GDP per capita ($) ,650
Foreign Trade (% of GDP) %
Total Exports (% of GDP) %
Unemployment (Q2/09) %
The Israeli Industry
Share of business sector 20%
Industrial Sales ($Billion)
Industrial Exports (% of sales) 41%
Leading branches: Chemicals, Electronics & Food
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

3. Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry Main Economic Parameters
production
Local Sales
Work- Force
Export Shipments
Israeli Industry
Overseas activities of Israeli companies
Export prices & profitability
Financing expenditure
Investments
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

4. Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry
Industrial production
Current Survey - Initial Findings (146 answers)
Weighted Net Balance
Total Increase
Total Decrease
4.7%
38%
29%
Q3/09
5.2%
40%
28%
Q4/09F
Weighted Net Balance = % of reporting an increase minus % of reporting a decrease, weighted according to intensity
Moving average of 3 Quarters
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

5. According to ICBS Data Industry Continued Growing during H1/08
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

6. Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry
Export Shipments
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

7. Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry
Local Sales
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

8. Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry Industrial Work-Force
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

9. In H1/08 - Industrial Growth Derived from a Single Branch
This is a good example to a typical situation in a small country, where the survey can reflects more clearly the real trend
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

10. The Survey’s ability to identify trend changes in early stages
The timing gap in identifying trend changes in H1/08
Valuable timing gap
November 2008
April 2008
According to
the Survey:
official data:
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

11. The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
High & positive Correlation Between the Survey of Expectations in Industry & Official Data
A report made by an external research company found out that:
“80% of the observations were able to predict the accurate trend of changes in the index of
industrial production, export and employment
in correlation with the indexes published by the ICBS”.
(Based on data base).
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

12. High & positive Correlation Between the Survey of Expectations in Industry & Official Data
A positive correlation of 0.81
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

13. The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry current survey - initial finding
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

14. Thank you Daphna Aviram-Nitzan Head of Economic Research Department Manufacturers' Association of Israel Tel Mobile: