1. NUMBERS IN ACTION: CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY

2. OUTLINE Purpose: Discussion of Practical Applications
Democratization in Latin America
Legacies of Independence
Cycles and Trends
Global and Comparative Perspectives
Democratic Dominoes?
Subregional Variations and the Colossus of the North
Lessons over Time: Earlier Experience
Democracy and Instability

3. Key Question: What’s new about the current wave of democracy?
N countries =
N years =
N country-years = 1,919
Key Concept: Distinction between (a) quality of elections, and (b) protection of civil liberties—i.e., between “procedural” and “substantive” components of democracy.

4. CATEGORIES OF ELECTORAL REGIMES
Electoral democracy = free and fair elections
Semidemocracy = elections free but not fair; or, effective
power not vested in winner of elections
Competitive oligarchy = elections fair but not free; candidates restricted to socio-economic elite and suffrage restricted to minority of population
Autocracy/authoritarianism = no elections, or elections neither
free nor fair.

5. MODES OF AGGREGATION:
By year
By country
Or, in other types of research project, by such characteristics as (a) age, (b) academic class, (c) region, (d) parents’ occupation, etc.

7. ON LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
Nominal variable (for each country-year)
Interval-scale variable (N or % countries—or % people-- within each category for each year)
Note: Quality of electoral system not here considered as “ordered nominal” variable—but could it be?

9. Figure 3. The Path of Democratic Change, 1900-2000

12. KEY ISSUES FOR STUDY OF CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY:
Approaching concept of “democracy”
Disaggregating concept into component parts (i.e., elections, representation, citizens’ rights, provision of social justice and/or material benefits, etc.)
Challenge: Obtaining valid and reliable measurements