1. Counterfactual impact evaluation: Czech experience with control groups
Oto Potluka
University of Economics Prague

2. Character of the assistance
Operational Programme Human resources and employment, support area 1.1 „Adaptability“
Aimed at preventing unemployment by investment into human capital
For the purpose of CIE we use projects of trainings aimed at improving skills and knowledge of firms´ employees

3. 5 main areas of interest
We will test the impact of ESF assistance in 31 research questions:
on financial turnover of firms
on profit of firms
on employment in firms
on investment into skills and knowledge of employees in firms
on fluctuation of employees in firms.

4. Timing The actual assistance started in 2009
We have got data for pre-assistance period (2006 – 2008) and 2009
The data for 2010 – 2012 will be collected later

5. Data sets Call „Vzdělávejte se!“ - 3357 firms
Grant calls for proposals– 1481 firms
Control group – plan 3000 – 4000 firms (probably firms)
Rejected applicants (in grant calls for proposals)

6. Structure of data
There are mainly (99 %) Limited companies and Stock companies in the sample
It enabled cooperation with the Czech Statistical Office (individual entrepreneurs would cause methodological problems with collecting data)

7. Methods Regression discontinuity design Instrumental variables
Propensity score matching (difference – in – difference)

8. Challenges
Accessibility of reliable data – depends on data source and composition of tested models
Qualitative vs. Quantitative methods of evaluation – concerns the evaluation community and skills in use of both types of methods

9. Results for RDD (Call 23)
The following graph is a kernel estimation of density of probability for density of points and the increase of revenues of firms
With the support, there should be „a ridge“ heading to north-east with two „peaks“ (divided by the border)
The last slide: testing if there is increase / decrease change in number of firms in on the border line.

10. Some results (Call 23 - RDD)

12. Thank you for your attention!
Oto Potluka