1. MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Prepared for MBA’s Annual National Convention
October 25, 2016
Presented by
Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Marina Walsh
Mortgage Bankers Association

2. Mortgage Bankers Association
12/6/2018
Summary of the MBA Outlook
Source: MBA Forecast – October 2016
Mortgage Bankers Association

3. Historical and Forecasted Originations
Mortgage Bankers Association
12/6/2018
Historical and Forecasted Originations
484 refi / 638 pur
570 / %
379 / %
Source: MBA Forecast – October 2016
Mortgage Bankers Association

4. Rates Expected to Increase
Source: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, MBA

5. Mortgage Bankers Association
12/6/2018
Potential for 16 Million Additional Households by 2024 Changing Demographics and Economy Plus Trends
- 2.1 million
+5.1 million
+12.9 million
5.1 / -2.1 / 12.9
Over the next decade, demographic changes alone should account for 13.9 million additional households in the United States (see Tables).
Adjusting demographic-specific headship rates from the 2014 levels to account for these long-term social and economic trends suggests even more robust housing demand over the next decade.
If headship rates adjust and demographics changes continue, the U.S. will see 15.9 million additional households over the next decade – two million more than if headship rates remained at their 2014 levels.
Household growth will be led by 5.7 million more Hispanic households in 2024 than in 2014, 5.0 million more non-Hispanic White households, 2.4 million more Black households, 1.9 million more Asian households and 890,000 more other households.
Growth will be driven by Baby Boomers, with 12.9 million more households age 60 and over in 2024 than there are today. Millennials will also be a key component of growth raising the ranks of households age 18 to 44 by 5.1 million. Generation X’s relatively small size means that there will be 2.1 million fewer households age 45 to 59 than there are today.
Averaging 1.6 million additional households per year, housing market growth over the next decade would be among the strongest the U.S. has ever seen.
Source: IPUMS CPS and MBA
Mortgage Bankers Association

6. Strong Multifamily Development and Slower Single-Family
Mortgage Bankers Association
12/6/2018
Strong Multifamily Development and Slower Single-Family
Source: Census
Mortgage Bankers Association

7. Changing Composition of Lending Institutions
Mortgage Bankers Association
12/6/2018
Changing Composition of Lending Institutions
Need to Update
Source: HMDA
Mortgage Bankers Association

8. IMB Net Production Income (bps) and Average $ Volume
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,

9. IMB Fully-Loaded Production Expenses ($ per loan):
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,

10. Three Things to Watch
Source: FDIC, MBA Weekly Applications Survey

11. MBA Research Sign-ups and Services
Mba.org/PerformanceReport
Mortgage Bankers Association

12. Mortgage Bankers Association
12/6/2018
Contact Information & MBA Resources
Lynn Fisher, Ph.D.
Vice President & Executive Director of RIHA | Research and Economics
Mike Fratantoni, Ph.D.
Chief Economist & Senior Vice President | Research and Industry Technology
Marina B. Walsh
Vice President, Industry Analysis | Research and Economics
MBA Research:
RIHA:
Mortgage Bankers Association