Drought and fodder crisis What cows should I cull?

Drought and fodder crisis What cows should I cull?
Margaret Kelleher 19th July 2018

Current position Need to reduce stocking rate
Tendency to look at low production However many other traits impact profit as well as low production Age of cow Late calving date current year Expected calving date next year SCC Health issues Genetic merit Persistency of lactation Cost of replacements in subsequent years Longevity Cull cow value Replacement cost

Cull on low production cows now?
Current Lactation Future Lactations Net Replacement Cost If you select on low production cows all other factors in this diagram are ignored Production Health (SCC) Management Maintenance Fertility (calving date) = CAN YOU REALLY CULL ON LOW PRODUCTION AND IGNORE THE FOLLOWING? End up culling all young cows? Impact on future profit? Will I be replacing them all again next year????? Keep cow having a good year now but she was a high SCC cow for 2 years previously??? Keep cow now but was hard to get in calf previously? Production Health Beef Calving Management Maintenance Fertility Descendants Cull cow value Replacement cost + predictions on fertility, survival and SCC performance

Cull on low production cows now?
Current Lactation Future Lactations Net Replacement Cost Production Health (SCC) Management Maintenance Fertility (calving date) = Cull using COW and you will consider; every trait that is represented the diagram, and herd profitability over time; This year For future years, and Replacement costs associated with removing animals Production Health Beef Calving Management Maintenance Fertility Descendants Cull cow value Replacement cost + predictions on fertility, survival and SCC performance

Case study Table 1: Summary statistics on 6 herds including average parity, production (kg), calving dates, genetic merit and C.O.W. profile Herd No cows Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield to date Milk solids to date Milk 305D Milk solids 305D SCC (median) Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace. costs C.O.W. 1 243 3.99 23/02/2018 28/02/2019 154 2708 219 4804 407 133 (37) 134 665 718 1517 2 148 3.62 21/02/2018 26/02/2019 125 3065 257 6008 521 66 (25) 128 507 725 1360 3 111 3.42 02/02/2018 06/02/2019 161 2886 222 5866 475 84 (41) 169 713 744 1626 4 159 18/02/2018 19/02/2019 151 2803 212 5813 455 136 (65) 91 502 706 1299 5 127 3.51 12/02/2018 14/02/2019 145 3002 5740 490 165 (35) 108 530 723 1361 6 241 2.84 27/02/2018 146 3266 6492 508 96 (26) 196 755 793 1744

Cull 10% of herd Table 2: Profile of bottom 10% of herd for each herd when culled on; C.O.W. Milk yield Milk solids yield What impact does each culling method have on; Herd age profile Herd production performance Herd fertility performance Herd genetic merit Herd health performance

1. Herd age profile

Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield
Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 1992 168 3555 321 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 1934 157 3535 308 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2241 204 4390 415 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2101 169 4392 372 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2400 201 4721 411 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2420 176 4858 376 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 1962 152 4253 345 87 50 646 936 1632 173 1902 144 4106 328 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2590 219 4726 423 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2446 205 4481 398 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2427 189 4845 406 163 819 929 1877 1.08 2357 179 388 255 107 827 942 1876

Cull on milk production traits will select all young cows!
Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 1992 168 3555 321 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 1934 157 3535 308 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2241 204 4390 415 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2101 169 4392 372 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2400 201 4721 411 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2420 176 4858 376 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 1962 152 4253 345 87 50 646 936 1632 173 1902 144 4106 328 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2590 219 4726 423 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2446 205 4481 398 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2427 189 4845 406 163 819 929 1877 1.08 2357 179 388 255 107 827 942 1876 Cull on milk production traits will select all young cows! REMOVING COWS THAT HAVE; Better genetic merit Probability of higher survival rates compared to old cows Probability of better health compared to old cows More costly to replace! Not at mature ability; 1st parity 22% off mature production 2nd parity 7% off mature production

Therefore comparison of production average not realistic
Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 1992 168 3555 321 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 1934 157 3535 308 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2241 204 4390 415 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2101 169 4392 372 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2400 201 4721 411 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2420 176 4858 376 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 1962 152 4253 345 87 50 646 936 1632 173 1902 144 4106 328 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2590 219 4726 423 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2446 205 4481 398 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2427 189 4845 406 163 819 929 1877 1.08 2357 179 388 255 107 827 942 1876 Therefore comparison of production average not realistic Next slide will display adjusted production figures to bring young cows to mature equivalent figures where; Parity 1 adjusted by +22% Parity 2 adjusted by +7%

2. Herd production profile

Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield
Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 2371 200 4242 382 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 2309 187 4225 369 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2587 235 5085 478 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2563 206 5358 454 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2727 228 5394 468 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2952 215 5927 459 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 2400 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 2374 184 5149 418 87 50 646 936 1632 173 2321 176 5009 400 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2872 243 5224 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2747 232 5014 447 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2880 224 5772 484 163 819 929 1877 1.08 152 2841 5704 255 107 827 942 1876

If I cull on C.O.W. will I reduce my production?
Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 2371 200 4242 382 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 2309 187 4225 369 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2587 235 5085 478 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2563 206 5358 454 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2727 228 5394 468 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2952 215 5927 459 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 2400 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 2374 184 5149 418 87 50 646 936 1632 173 2321 176 5009 400 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2872 243 5224 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2747 232 5014 447 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2880 224 5772 484 163 819 929 1877 1.08 152 2841 5704 255 107 827 942 1876 If I cull on C.O.W. will I reduce my production? Should I cull on production only???

Statistical significance
Table 3; Results of level of significance between culling methods (C.O.W., milk yield, and milk solids) on production performance. Phenotypic performance Effect (p – value) between culling methods C.O.W. v Milk yield C.O.W. v Milk solids Milk yield v Milk solids 305D milk yield 0.125 0.188 0.852 305D milk solids 0.812 0.369 0.482 To date milk yield 0.310 0.302 0.930 To date milk solids 0.739 0.475 0.291 *T-test level of significance 5% - if 0.05 then method has a statistically significant difference on production performance RESULT: No statistically significant difference on production performance between culling methods

3. Herd fertility profile

Expected calving dates similar – differ by a week
Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 1992 168 3555 321 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 1934 157 3535 308 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2241 204 4390 415 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2101 169 4392 372 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2400 201 4721 411 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2420 176 4858 376 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 1962 152 4253 345 87 50 646 936 1632 173 1902 144 4106 328 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2590 219 4726 423 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2446 205 4481 398 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2427 189 4845 406 163 819 929 1877 1.08 2357 179 388 255 107 827 942 1876 C.O.W. culls cows with later calving dates compared to production culling for 4 out of 6 herds – 2 herds differ by 3-6 days Expected calving dates similar – differ by a week Pregnancy diagnosis will alter C.O.W.’s selection of culling candidates

4. Herd genetic merit profile

Lower EBI cows are selected as culling candidates when using C.O.W.
Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 2371 200 4242 382 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 2309 187 4225 369 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2587 235 5085 478 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2563 206 5358 454 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2727 228 5394 468 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2952 215 5927 459 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 2400 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 2374 184 5149 418 87 50 646 936 1632 173 2321 176 5009 400 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2872 243 5224 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2747 232 5014 447 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2880 224 5772 484 163 819 929 1877 1.08 152 2841 5704 255 107 827 942 1876 Lower EBI cows are selected as culling candidates when using C.O.W.

5. Herd health profile

C.O.W. actively selects cows with high SCC as culling candidates
Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 2371 200 4242 382 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 2309 187 4225 369 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2587 235 5085 478 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2563 206 5358 454 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2727 228 5394 468 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2952 215 5927 459 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 2400 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 2374 184 5149 418 87 50 646 936 1632 173 2321 176 5009 400 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2872 243 5224 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2747 232 5014 447 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2880 224 5772 484 163 819 929 1877 1.08 152 2841 5704 255 107 827 942 1876 C.O.W. actively selects cows with high SCC as culling candidates C.O.W. also predicts for future cases of high SCC based on a cow; Having a past history of SCC issues Parity Genetic merit Cows with high SCC currently or previously are treated as high risk cases and may be considered for culling relative to herd mates

Conclusion Use C.O.W. to CULL

Herd Cull on Parity Calving Date Expected calving date EBI Milk yield Milk solids Milk 305D Milk sol 305D SCC Current lact. Future lacts. Net replace costs C.O.W. 1 COW 7.75 19/02/2018 23/02/2019 109 2831 217 4824 386 611 -349 -163 513 M305 1.25 20/02/2018 28/02/2019 164 2371 200 4242 382 98 135 818 926 1880 MSKG 1.17 25/02/2018 153 2309 187 4225 369 75 97 708 930 1735 2 7.57 11/03/2018 25/02/2019 90 2784 212 6140 487 36 -239 -429 525 -143 1.87 15/02/2018 01/03/2019 145 2587 235 5085 478 56 59 574 883 1516 22/02/2018 150 2563 206 5358 454 66 78 643 951 1672 3 6.67 10/02/2018 08/02/2019 123 2781 211 5794 463 401 -264 -40 571 267 1.91 23/01/2018 29/01/2019 162 2727 228 5394 468 72 112 733 871 1715 26/01/2018 31/01/2019 166 2952 215 5927 459 67 129 809 945 1883 4 7.63 27/02/2018 18/02/2019 89 2400 182 5556 439 343 -337 -431 527 -241 1.06 16/02/2018 16/02/2019 2374 184 5149 418 87 50 646 936 1632 173 2321 176 5009 400 105 30 680 1654 5 6.83 23/02/2018 07/02/2019 96 2627 5269 443 1749 -494 -149 542 -101 2.92 04/02/2018 15/02/2019 148 2872 243 5224 177 19 496 785 1299 01/02/2018 14/02/2019 138 2747 232 5014 447 354 -126 309 798 980 6 6.42 111 3666 254 6981 516 389 -345 -226 609 39 1.21 2880 224 5772 484 163 819 929 1877 1.08 152 2841 5704 255 107 827 942 1876 C.O.W. is for culling cows C.O.W. considers many factors, including production C.O.W. takes into account parity of animals and can adjust accordingly It will do a better job than culling on one aspect only!! Runs instantly Data required; HerdPlus member Milk recording and calving dates automatically used Only possible action is to record inseminations or pregnancy diagnosis of cows at this time of year

Drought and fodder crisis What cows should I cull?

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Drought and fodder crisis What cows should I cull?

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